muses of the moment

December 31, 2010

Martin Armstrong’s 2011 Predictions

Click here for the updated post regarding Martin Armstrong’s 2010 predictions and see how well he did!

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s 2012 predictions.

Actually, Martin Armstrong hasn’t made any predictions for 2011. But he has mentioned some market perimeters in his letters of 2010. Statements in quotes are directly from Martin Armstrong’s letters.

Update January 5, 2011: Martin Armstrong’s latest letter, just received, dated December 22, 2010, has some updates to the info below. Click here for the full letter, market info is on page 7. Updates below are in blue.

Here we go.

DOW-neutral-higher

“When we look ahead to 2011, the resistance will stand at $12,500-$12,900 level followed by $13,340. The primary support begins as high as $10,608 level assuming we close above that level. (Which we have at $11,577.) This should be a very important pivot area even into 2012. Above the market, we will have this $11,800-$11,935 as critical pivotal resistance also for the next two years into 2012. Well below the market, we have the $7,400-$7,290 that will also be the major pivot support for the next two years.”

“The big turning point will be the June of 2011. If the DOW retests support precisely to the day, then we should see a very strong bull market thereafter going into the high for the top of the next 8.6 year wave in 2015.75.”

groovygirl’s comments: A high into 2015 could be inflation or dollar debasement, not actual real return on investment.

Update: Dow support at 9400. A buy signal required a close above 11927, which we did not get. But since it was close, it is a continuing bullish signal (or neutral) for the near term.

PANIC CYCLE-2015

“Looking into the future, it does appear that 2015 is going to be a YEARLY PANIC CYCLE with massive huge volatility into 2016.”

groovygirl’s comments: A panic cycle doesn’t necessary mean a crash. It means extreme volatility, uncertainty, and panic. It is groovygirl’s opinion that 2015 is the year that the dollar dies.

GOLD-up

“The monthly chart shows a primary channel that stands at $1,400-$1,480 for 2010 and $1,480-$1,660 for 2011. It is this later channel on the monthly level that is likely to present the overhead resistance.”

“Looking ahead the main support lies at $1,030-$1,047 level. This will be the pivot support throughout 2011. This suggests that the broader long-term trend on a near-term basis will remain bullish as long as gold stays above this level for 2011.”

Click here for the Gold $5,000+ letter from 2009. The last 3 pages are very informative! Click here for the most recent letter about gold from 2010 (lots of good charts in this letter).

Gold is what investors buy when they are not confident in the economic climate/government policies. We have seen that type of buying in 2010, it will continue in 2011.

Martin sees the possibility for $5,000 gold by 2015. If that is the case, gold could rise in 2011 on its way to that number. But remember, expect volatility in the gold market, do not day-trade gold.

groovygirl’s comments: we are ending the year sort of in-between Martin’s channels ($1,421.60). Groovygirl is going to go with higher gold in 2011 trading within Martin’s upper channel prediction or between $1480-$1660. Silver has done wonderfully in 2010, ending the year at $30.91.

Update: Silver is bullish. Gold could retest support at some point this year, but will be at $5,000 by 2015.

REAL ESTATE-falling

Same prediction as 2010. Martin is calling for a temporary bottom in 2012 and a rise in 2015. (This time line falls right in line with the remaining mortgages from the big bubble that must “reset” between now and 2013.) Then, a slow, very bad decline into 2030. (This time line represents reality hitting the bank balance sheets that finally start effecting housing prices in a very real way.)

This is a 26-year decline in real estate. So this means that the housing market is not recovering and residential and commercial real estate will be under pressure in 2011 as credit is still frozen within the banks balance sheets.

Click here for Martin’s letter on the Real Estate cycle. (Real estate information starts on page 8 with a chart.)

DOLLAR-neutral-falling

“There is potential for a final low in 2011. A closing below 74.71 will signal that such a potential exists for 2011. Major resistance will stand at 80.80 and a closing below that number will signal that the dollar is still weak for 2011.”

Therefore, since the dollar closed below 80.80, dollar could still be weak in 2011.

On January 21, 2010, Martin has released a letter on the floating currency system and USDollar predictions. Click here (last few pages have specifics). His conclusion, extreme volatility and then a currency crisis in the USDollar in 2015.

Click here for a recent letter in which Martin charts all major fiat currencies.

groovygirl’s comments: there is a currency war continuing into 2011, as all fiat currencies try to debase at once. Expect all currencies to race up and down making everyone ill. Many economists are predicting a much higher dollar next year because of the euro issues. However, groovygirl is a long-term investor and if the dollar isn’t going up to its 2001 levels (which it won’t), it is still in a major downward trend and is still losing purchasing power.

Update: Euro should remain neutral and dollar should fall some.

groovygirl’s conclusion

Nothing much has changed, more of the same in 2011 as the debt crisis is not fixed. Groovygirl will keep a look out for Martin’s next letter to see if there are any updates/modifications to the information presented here.

This information is not to be used to trade short-term and groovygirl reminds you that you invest at your own risk. This is the information that groovygirl is using to prepare her investments for the coming currency crisis. It lets her know how much time she has to prepare and nothing else. The time to trade was four years ago, now it is time to preserve the purchasing power of your savings/capital/retirement.

Side musing: click on the Martin Armstrong tag to the right to view all the groovygirl posts about his letters. There are links to all the original letters under moregroovyresources.

Update March 14, 2011, Martin Armstrong has been released from prison. More information later.

About these ads

17 Comments »

  1. Thanks for a nice collation of Armstrong comments. Like you, I am digging for 2011 forecasts. There doesn’t seem to be much change to the overall themes of 2010 – just a little worse…

    Nevertheless, best wishes for the new year!

    Comment by Lore — December 31, 2010 @ 4:10 am

  2. Lore,
    Agreed, more of the same. Just waiting for the moment when printing money doesn’t stabilize.

    However, nice to know that the more money they print, the higher gold will be.

    Happy New Year!

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — December 31, 2010 @ 8:08 am

  3. [...] (For Martin Armstrong’s 2011 predictions, click here.) [...]

    Pingback by Martin Armstrong’s 2010 Predictions « muses of the moment — December 31, 2010 @ 8:11 am

  4. Shockingblue is a band, green eyes are a anomaily and the major change of this century will be restrictions on citizens rights of travel /passage.
    Citizenship will become a commidity.
    subetrfuge of wealth a neccisity
    spiritual and mental ability to perform above the media inducement of
    societal normalitity vital to intellectual wellbeing.
    a shift to the southern and eastern hemisphers of political, intellectual and monetary influence not withstaning borders as may be comprimed within this quatering of the globe will take place

    just My pov
    I have been following martin since 2001.
    Not rich based upon those who would take it from me.
    not smart based upon my own mistakes
    not afraid based upon survival
    willing to understand and respect any person
    Call me human
    salutations
    zantiz.

    Comment by zantiz — January 8, 2011 @ 3:03 am

  5. Is Marty saying that Gold should retest the support of 1000$ for gold sometimes mid June?
    of about 1040$

    Comment by jason — January 14, 2011 @ 6:42 pm

  6. Jason,

    I am not sure. I was trying to go back and look at his support numbers for gold. He has a $1200 number and the $1040, you speak of. I thought I might wait until the next letter comes out. Martin suggested that he would share future thoughts based on year end numbers. That letter has not been released yet. Perhaps he will clarify soon.

    Therefore, groovygirl is not panicking. The current short-term technicals do not call for a massive sell-off right now.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — January 14, 2011 @ 6:55 pm

  7. Thanx GG
    I read a fellow by the name of Russ who also follows Marty at http://marketvisions.blogspot.com
    what he sees is Gold/Silver going for a low mid June 2011 on the confidence model.
    In his letter (11 year bull market for gold) page 10, he mentions that Main bank of support lies at 1030-1047 level,I guess in his view Gold should retest that level sometimes in June 2011 before taking off , according to his last letter ofcourse
    cant wait to read his last article, its funny how Goldbugs dont mention him in their daily comments.
    few actually do/did like Jim Sinclair,
    Also N.Taleb copied him indirectly rather than quoted him, which i didnt like

    Comment by jason — January 14, 2011 @ 7:32 pm

  8. Good link, Jason. Russ has good things to say.

    I am not ruling out a retest of $1040, and clearly June would be the time. I think 2011 is the year of heighten volatility in all markets as we finally feel the direct impact of the global currency war. Clearly paper gold and silver are trading as currencies and will be just as volatile as they have been.

    Until paper breaks from physical, we will have these extreme ups and downs. The downs, just provide real investors will a price break for long term holdings.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — January 14, 2011 @ 7:40 pm

  9. So I guess you read FOFOA ……..how do you like him/her??.., Marty apparently does not share/follow that view..
    At the present time i am reversing my 2010 trades i.e I am selling the highs instead of bying the dips :))
    Jason

    Comment by jason — January 14, 2011 @ 8:09 pm

  10. Jason,

    GG doesn’t trade in this environment. She buys and holds. She tries to buy on dips, but doesn’t sweat it if she misses.

    Careful trading in this market, it is controlled by policy not a free market. Anything is possible.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — January 14, 2011 @ 8:22 pm

  11. GG
    Marty just released his last article as we speak
    enjoy reading it
    and i will like to see you comment on it:)
    later
    Jason

    Comment by jason — January 14, 2011 @ 8:39 pm

  12. Hi GG
    It seems that Gold behaved as Marty predicted, I wonder where it will be in June……….
    Any new thoughts now that we are going into all this turmoil in the M.East, Tunisia/Egypt etc?

    Comment by jason — January 28, 2011 @ 9:51 pm

  13. Jason,

    Not sure. Egypt and Tunisia seem to be a political change and not a debt default crisis (although banks don’t lend to rioting countries). It is hard to know if the media will tone down coverage after the initial crisis and we in the west will all forget about it.

    I am looking at June 2011 as the time that the West realize they have a major problem in printing to infinity and people realize how that will effect them in the future (i.e. higher monthly expenses). Everyone will realize that we are in a global depression. We seem to have the media change their tone to a more negative one towards government and the huge debt level every 6-8 months or so, with the bloggers leading the way and MSM following 4-6 months later. (The huge debt level is something that the average US citizen can relate to, they really don’t understand a hyperinflationary depression or a collapse of the USDollar or currency wars.) I think that from that June 2011 to December 2012 that investor sentiment will change negatively, especially as we gear up for the 2012 election.

    It is hard to tell how silver and gold will react. Investors may buy more, but central banks may manipulate price more too.

    I am still buying some physical silver every few months, regardless of the price, for the long term. I am more worried about not being able to get physical silver at some point than I am about price.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — January 29, 2011 @ 10:24 am

  14. there is this person by the Nickname FOFOA, you can read him/her on ZH or http://fofoa.blogspot.com
    a very well respected pundit who advocates Freegold, he actually claims along with J.Sinclair,that silver is NOT money. you can check his argument on his blog.
    Since then i have second thoughts about silver, and personally i cleaned all my silver holdings for gold.I dunno know how right he is in his/her argument that china will be eventually trading its silver for Gold in order to ride with the European Union the coming change of the world reserve currency status , i.e from USD to another, probably SDR, backed by Gold, and certainly not silver.
    Those guys make your head spin, dont they?
    J

    Comment by jason — January 29, 2011 @ 1:22 pm

  15. The point of my silver argument is that it will collapse in favor of a spike in gold price, as china will liquidate its silver along with the financial institutions/hedge funds etc in order to get the real money, Gold……..waow, crazy isnt it?

    Comment by jason — January 29, 2011 @ 1:29 pm

  16. Jason,

    GG believes that there is an investment cycle AND a currency cycle for both silver and gold in our current situation and moving forward. When I say that I mean that we are in a normal bull market cycle for all precious metals. We are also in a cycle that ends with the complete breakdown in all fiat currencies, thus allowing gold and silver, and other commodities like oil, to become more than investments, but trading currencies.

    An investor may approach those cycles differently depending on the point we are in each cycle. I have read FOFOA. Not sure I agree with everything, but certainly respect his point of view.

    In addition, gg would never invest exactly as Jim Sinclair because I do not have the money or connections (access to information) that he has.

    Thanks for reading,
    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — January 30, 2011 @ 1:06 pm

  17. GG
    I sent a letter to Marty asking his opinion about this Silver dilemma, hopefully i should get a reply upon his release soon
    regards

    Comment by jason — January 30, 2011 @ 3:54 pm


RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

The Shocking Blue Green Theme. Blog at WordPress.com.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 80 other followers

%d bloggers like this: