US will never default…..click here.
May 22, 2013
May 17, 2013
If anyone is “shocked, shocked” in the next crisis meltdown that their funds are missing, it will not be because no one formally announced it.
No need to guess what will happen on the next CDS collapse. They will “bail-in” your money. Click here for the details.
It is clear that on the next crisis, Europe will collect bank accounts and brokerage funds and in the US, they will collect brokerage funds, 401ks, and pension funds.
April 23, 2013
Once again, Charles Hugh Smith of Of Two Minds, explains the facts beautifully.
If you want to know what will happen and why, this is it.
Examine point three very carefully.
3. Since the only endgames to ballooning debts and declining household incomes are runaway inflation or renunciation of debt, the Status Quo has only one choice left to preserve its neofeudal arrangement: do more of what has failed spectacularly, i.e. inflate more asset bubbles as a way to mask the system’s phantom collateral for a few more months or perhaps years.
Unfortunately for central banks and their politico cronies, serial asset bubbles face the headwinds of diminishing returns. All the Fed and Federal agencies had to do to launch the first housing bubble was lower interest rates and encourage subprime mortgages.
Take a look at that Case-Shiller House Price Chart, can you say unsustainable? The Fed is purchasing billions in mortgages each month and the US government is insuring any and all new mortgages and it is still a basic flat line. Spending lots of money just to stay in place….unsustainable.
And take a look at that stock market chart, adjusted for CPI (which is the lowest inflation indicator), stocks have not rebounded. But you would never guess that from listening to the financial talking heads. With this chart in mind, there is still movement up for stock prices, but just keep in mind that is up just to get where you were in 2007. And look at the scary volatility in the stock market since 2007. Bumpy ride.
But the scariest chart, the one that will ensure an economic depression for the next 20 years (whether that is a deflationary depression or a hyperinflationary depression or both, one after the other). It is the spread between real income and real expenses and the widening of that gap that will keep the US in a depressive economic situation for years to come.That spread can happen in a deflation or hyperinflation, same outcome for Main Street. And Main Street, the consumer, is 70% of GDP.
That increasing spread will make sure more defaulted consumer and mortgage debt, lower GDP, and more bail outs and bail-ins for entities holding that debt. Add to this an aging population those income naturally declines after retirement.
These charts tell the whole story.
April 19, 2013
Remember this post from groovygirl? Click here.
Point 1: Mortgage securities are still a problem….not solved, not fixed, not settled, and getting bigger.
Point 2: The entities (notice the non-bank banks on the link) that are still standing and have still have off the book exposure to these unsettled securities met with Obama on Thursday. Click here.
Point 3: Martin Armstrong has had several blog posts this week about pension funds, IRAs, and 401ks confiscation and/or forced loans. Click here for one of them. In another post, he suggested a possible date for these forced loans to begin as 2016. A result of the unsettling economic turn in October 2015?
When point one crashes and triggers a collapse and credit freeze again, point two’s TBTF will get a “bail-in” from your money in point three. That bail-in will go thru the forced buy of government bonds.
April 10, 2013
George Washington via zerohedge.com wrote a great piece on MERS and how it contributed to the Mortgage Crisis and the following global credit freeze. It is an excellent description of mortgage securities and the magic of AAA rating.
I bring this up because the mortgage crisis is not behind us. These securities have not been unwound yet, no losses really booked yet AND new ones are still being created and sold. This crisis, or actually the second half of the original mortgage security/derivative crisis, should hit around October 2015 (Martin’s date for his Economic Model Cycle).
April 9, 2013
One of my favorite bloggers from ruralrevolution, Patricia Lewis, got her latest article on zerohedge. Click here.
April 4, 2013
Click here for the latest blog post from Martin Armstrong dated April 3, 2013 entitled All Government Acknowledge the Cyprus Model for Bank Bailouts Is It.
Groovygirl is posting this one, but there are other good posts at Martin’s website, because this is her focus for the next few months, and possibility beyond.
gg says: It is very clear now what will happen and a time frame. The next global debt collapse and banking system crisis will either happen or impact main street in 2015 (Martin’s date is October 1, 2015). It is coming. It will like 2008, but much worse. They will take your savings this time to try and save the system. And judging from the reaction in Cyprus, they will not announce it beforehand. You must prepare now, if you have not already, and have your financial plan in place before 2015. That is just about 18 months from now.
Update: and the phrase of the day is: Cyprus is a template. Jesse agrees. Click here.
April 3, 2013
We all know that the TBTF banks have used legal (and, in gg’s humble opinion, illegal) creative accounting methods to hide their exposure to the toxic mortgage securities going back to the 2007 implosion which required massive over-the-counter and under-the-counter taxpayer bail outs.
Nothing has been fixed. In fact, banks have been using the system to put off legal responsibilities.
Groovygirl got an email from a friend, and it looks like this systemic exposure is heating up again.
There are some clues out there if you are looking: click here for Goldman loss in the courts and click here for Freddie’s “miraculous” gain in 2012 (perhaps, not too consequently, they “lost” the same amount in 2011).
Again, gg would like to remind her readers that securities on the balance sheets of banks are just the trigger. It is the billions, perhaps trillions, in derivatives that are connected to the mortgage securities that bring down the system and stop credit markets dead, as they did in 2007-2009.
No one knows when this next crisis will hit, but the banks’ balance sheets are NOT fixed.
And with Cyprus, will the depositors “bail in” the TBTF banks next time?
Update: some preliminary online research on this issue has brought this to gg’s attention. Click here.
Side musing: pay attention to this issue! Research your own banks and brokerages and investments. You will have to look at the foot notes of the prospectus of the last 5 years to even get a hint of what is really on the balance sheet.
March 21, 2013
March 19, 2013
Well, that went well….
Nigel Farage gives some not-so-subtle advice….get your money out of Europe!
Now, I am sure British banks are more than willing to take frightened European depositors’ money for safe keeping, but the Cyprus main attraction this week shows us two things: a small country can do major damage to the global banking system and nothing is off the table to preserve the failing banking and debt system. That means any country, any bank, anywhere….
Now that apparently the IMF has back-tracked from the “one-time-tax-on” deposits. Look for a reprieve before they try something else the next crisis. Such as, they will not announce it beforehand?
Can’t wait for the 2014 German election!
You will have to take steps to preserve the purchasing power of your own savings.
Next bank run. New Zealand. Click here. Question: why would any politician look at the global political reaction to Cyprus this week and say, “hey, let’s do something like that”?
In other news, gold looks good.