muses of the moment

June 23, 2014

Interesting question

Filed under: Dollar Crisis, DOW and S&P500, Stock Market — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:50 pm

Charles Hugh Smith brings up an interesting question.  Who will boomers and their pension/401k plans sell their stocks to?

Click here.

It is possible that other countries and emerging markets might or maybe too big to fail banks with free Fed money, but this scenario suggests some sort of long-term decline at some point under even the best of circumstances.

gg is hoping that emerging markets will be over their contraction in 5-7 years and be able to pick up the selling slack when a large population of aging Americans are selling for cash. Otherwise it could get ugly.

Same thing is/will happen in housing. Seniors need the cash equity out of their home and there are limited buyers. gg has thought for a long time that this pressure, with the increased debt burden/low-income on young people will contribute to the long-term decline in real estate in the US and other first world economies.

This is a long-term pressure on a long term cycle tied to generational demographics.

April 30, 2014

“Cold war”

groovygirl has been pre-occupied with another investment activity. See previous blog post for the details. Groovygirl will still continue to post about economics, gold and silver, and global debt.

groovygirl has been paying very close attention to the new Cold War with Russia and the crisis in Ukraine.

Click here.

Russia is making friends in the mist of this crisis.

Groovygirl is very concerned about the global economic consequences from this situation regardless of the end result in Ukraine. At the very least, this will speed up the economic alliances and economic separation of the BRICs. The direct trading of currency, energy, and commodities that started in 2010 is accelerating. At the worst, all global trade, which has helped and driven all growth (including the US) in the last 20 years will slow dramatically or stop all together. Iraq is now back in Iran’s influence, Russia and China are in direct currency trading and strengthening every day. GG has heard some commentators say that Russia doesn’t have the money, technology, or labor to expand its commodity reserves. But China does. In fact, China is doing that very thing already in Africa. India may be on the fence, but they know their geographical location and they have billions to feed. They have to be on the fence.

To sum up: too much is global debt will slow trade and change currency power. The unanswered question is: will political conflicts accelerate us all toward that decline.

 

March 28, 2014

GEAB N 83

Filed under: Dollar Crisis, European Debt Implosion, Global Debt — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:03 am

Click here for the full free summary. This was published March 16, 2014. FYI: this is from an European slant. Always know who the audience is, it helps decipher truth.

Layout of the full article:
1. BUILD A TRAP TO DIVERT EUROPE AWAY FROM IT’S OWN DESTINY
2. MASS ATTACKS ON EUROPE
3. CAUSE A NEW IRON CURTAIN TO FALL ON EUROPE
4. FORCE EUROPE TO CHOOSE SIDES
5. FIND THE INTRINSIC RESOURCES IN EUROPE TO FREE ITSELF FROM THE TRAP – Eight strategic recommendations      

March 11, 2014

High Frequency Trading

Tyler Durden via zerohedge had an excellent article this morning about the amazing winning percentages of HFT platforms. Apparently the big market for “winning” is currencies. Making fiat money on fiat money with the fastest computer. Fake money and fake traders. Welcome to the virtual world.

Click here.

But the most interesting thing about this post is not that computers control HFT trading, that the fastest and closest computers always win, that these HFT fat fingers can take down a market in milliseconds, or that currency markets are the main trading market they use to do it.

The scary thing about this chart is that there is a losing side to the winning computer’s HFT bet. Those extraordinary profits were taken from someone’s capital, debt, or savings. And who is that losing side? This is a another angle of the biggest wealth transfer in history.

Side musing: gg thought this little item about Ukraine’s gold air-lifted to NYFed for “safe-keeping” was interesting. Click here. Maybe it is collateral for that billion dollar loan?

February 8, 2014

GEAB N 81

The latest GEAB N81 is out. Click here for a detailed summary.

Layout of the full article:
1. STATISTICAL « SMOG »
2. THE RISE IN INTEREST RATES AND THE COLLAPSE OF US REAL ESTATE
3. THE END OF STOCK EXCHANGE EUPHORIA?
4. POLITICAL CHAOS
5. 2014, THE CLEAR BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE OIL ERA
6. SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE MARCH

February 1, 2014

New International Currency

Jesse had an update on the new international currency discussion. Click here. A new currency will happen and the pressure is building quick. But what it will look like and how will it change global capital/debt markets?

Groovygirl is off the opinion, like Jesse, that a new international currency will emerge, and national currencies will stay the “same”. But gg is also of the opinion that this new system will not last very long because it will keep as much power/influence with the US. And that strain between the US and emerging markets and outlying markets will continue. This will be a short-term solution (2, 5, 10 years?). Groovygirl is also of the opinion that this new currency will not last, because it will not address the true problem: collapsing global debt.

January 18, 2014

John Williams with shadowstats.com

Summary of John Williams’ real stats:

- Inflation Picks Up as the Economy Slows Down
– December Annual Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.5% (CPI-W), 9.1% (ShadowStats)
– Real Retail Sales Declined by 0.1% in Industry’s Flagship Month of December; Slowing Annual Growth Signaled Recession
– Real Weekly Earnings Declined in December

gg says: quite a disconnect between inflation formula of today and inflation formula of the pre-1980’s. If you don’t like the number, just change the formula! Did your wages and/or investments go up 9% after taxes?

January 11, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated January 9, 2014

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled What Are We Waiting For in the Markets? dated January 9, 2014.

January 6, 2014

Two interviews

Greg Hunter over at usawatchdog.com has two good interviews. Each are about 30 minutes.

One with Gerald Celente. Click here.

One with John Williams. Click here.

They each update their thoughts on 2014 trends and predictions.

groovygirl follows John Williams at shadowstats.com. remember that John’s definition of hyperinflationary depression is an economic downturn that is triggered by a deflation in debt (debt unavailable and/or too expensive) and an inflation in expenses (especially living expenses and commodity-related needs). There can be inflation in assets, but assets that are dependent on new debt creation (such as housing) will be under pressure long-term.

In gg’s opinion, we have been in this situation since 2006-2007, but creative accounting and money printing has masked the truth. At some point, we will have another round. Investors will either not believe the numbers and sell in a panic, we will have a trigger in the shadow banking system that spreads to other markets which occurred in 2008-2010 and investors have to sell assets to cover other debt obligations.

We still have a global economic balance sheet problem. Money printing and creative accounting solved the cash flow problem, but only temporarily.

December 21, 2013

Catherine Austin Fitts

An excellent video interview with Catherine Austin Fitts over at usawatchdog. This interview is from July 2013, but very important for 2014 and moving forward.

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