muses of the moment

July 18, 2014

Rereading Martin

Filed under: European Debt Implosion, Martin Armstrong, Odds 'n ends, The Financial Crisis — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:06 am

Groovygirl was rereading some old articles from Martin Armstrong. The ones on the typewriter. Of course, gg often reviews the Real Estate Cycle one. Seems we are still right on schedule for the long decline in US real estate into 2033 after 2015.

gg was also reading March 21, 2013′s post entitled March 22nd-Just Amazing. I think you can find it on his site.

Martin refers to August 3, 2014 as a turning point for the Sovereign Debt Crisis Wave Formation. She is keeping an eye on that date.

And, of course, with today’s international events, it seems we are on track for a rise in the war cycle going 2014-2016. Maybe impact the global debt issue as well. The more global economic sanctions, the less global capital moves, the less global debt/credit available.

Hope everyone is well.

June 14, 2014

Conversation between Glen Downs and Martin Armstrong

Filed under: Martin Armstrong, Odds 'n ends — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 7:49 pm

Click here for a conversation between Glen Downs and Martin Armstrong dated June 11, 2014.

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated June 14, 2014

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Gold and Silver Investing, Martin Armstrong, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 7:47 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Gold dated June 14, 2014.

June 4, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated June 3, 2014

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Gold and Silver Investing, Martin Armstrong, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:54 am

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Metal Update dated June 3, 2014.

From Martin on gold:

The two Daily Bearish Reversals are 1240 and 1186. We are holding the 1240 level for now with a minor Daily Bullish forming at 1262 and 1294. We see a turning point next week and the week of the 23rd. We do not see the meltdown yet without a monthly closing below 1190 area. We also see tomorrow as a turning point in both silver and gold.

Martin also has a silver chart and comments.

Martin Armstrong has a new mailing/office address:

Armstrong & Princeton Economics

Brandywine Plaza West
1521 Concord Pike
Suite 301
Wilmington DE 19803

Phone #:1-302-448-8080

groovygirl says:

As you may know, gg buys a certain about of physical gold and silver each year to hold long-term. She doesn’t trade metals anymore. She tries to pick the lowest point about every quarter to buy. I am buying a little of both this week. But I am waiting to see if we have a further drop in the next 2 weeks to buy a little more. This is what groovygirl is doing for her own personal financial goals. You are responsible for your own investing/financial decisions. Sorry gg has been absent, very busy! Hopefully things will slow down in the next few weeks and she can get back to regular posts. Thanks again for reading.

May 15, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated May 12, 2014

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Martin Armstrong — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:38 am

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled A Virtuous Cycle in the Economy date May 12, 2014.

May 14, 2014

Interview with M Armstrong on USAWatchdog

Click here for a great interview with Martin Armstrong dated May 11, 2014. H/T to SW.

May 6, 2014

Latest interview with Martin Armstrong and Glen Downs May 5, 2014

Filed under: Martin Armstrong, The Banking Crisis, The Financial Crisis — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:12 am

Click here for an audio interview with Martin Armstrong and Glen Downs. Good one!

May 1, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated May 1, 2014

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Martin Armstrong, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 7:35 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Gold Update dated May 1, 2014.

Martin says gold is not quite ready for prime time.

groovygirl says: as a reminder, gg is still buying and holding physical gold and silver long term. She buys when prices are low or lower for the year. She does not trade metals anymore.

April 28, 2014

Brace yourself

Filed under: Housing Market, Martin Armstrong, Precious metals, Real Estate Investments, The Banking Crisis — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:39 am

As totallygroovygirlfriday has mentioned before, she is not going to hold all her gold/silver forever. The next investment class that groovygirl will pursue is real estate, specifically residential home rentals and leases and then later, if luck is on her side, commercial real estate. This is just what gg is doing; there are lots of other investments out there. You are responsible for your own financial decisions.

Just to be clear, totallygroovygirl is NOT selling precious metals right now. GG is just dipping her toe into a new investment class to see what happens and learn.

Although the main investment move will be later, when gold/silver are closer to their highs in the long-term cycle (sometime between 2015-2020). But in preparation to that move, groovygirl has been researching and studying different types of real estate investing since 2003. Reading and researching are fine, but actual experience in an investment is a quick and excellent teacher.

GG always does a lot of research before she moves to action. She studied gold, silver and dollar cycles for four years, before she bought her first gold investment. And even after that, she moved slowly into the position she is in now.

Groovygirl has a long-term, life-time investing plan and is very patient. You may not be this way. That’s Ok. This transition from precious metals to real estate over the next 10 years is part of that life time plan.

Financial education and preparation equals financial freedom, which in turn, create nights full of restful sleep, and not worried-induced insomnia.

Now, as we know from Martin Armstrong’s Real Estate Cycle, the US housing market is in a long-term cycle and we are now on the downside of that 2007 peak, with the ongoing banking crisis/mortgage derivative crisis being the main driver of this long-term decline through 2032. There are ways of making money in any market condition, the important thing is to know which way the market is going.

Groovygirl has decided to make her first real estate investment now and not later for several different reasons. But she is only making one real estate investment right now.

Groovygirl’s real estate investment forecast chart is based on cash flow, not capital gains. In fact gg is expecting a tax loss, and will (hopefully) time that loss to offset other income. This is part of the exit strategy. Always know when you are getting out of an investment BEFORE you get in. If Martin is completely wrong and housing goes up, gg will have a gain, which will be nice. And if it moves sideways, gg will break even, and get the depreciation write off in the mean time. And if the government should change real estate tax laws in the meantime, she has some flexibility there too.

Groovygirl is making this move now for several reasons:

  •  To find out if her cashflow projections really work. Any investment can look great on paper.
  • Find out if she really likes this type of investing. She thinks she is passionate about it, as much as she likes precious metals, but is that really the case? You really have to be passionate about the investments you are in. Making money only goes so far, when you are knee deep in details and drama. (That is the main reason gg doesn’t have a large position in stocks. She just isn’t that excited about them. That can always change.)
  • There are a lot of foreclosures and REOs out there right now, and therefore, cheap houses are on the market. The current pricing fits in with gg’s cash flow projections and creates a good ROI. After 2015, gg is sure it will be much better, that is why she is only purchasing one investment right now.
  • Real estate investing has great tax advantages, which would benefit gg’s circumstances now and later.
  • If it fails miserably, she will probably be able to get out before 2015 (the next downturn according to Martin Armstrong) with no or very little capital loss.

Groovygirl will expand on this move in future posts, but the main focus of the muses of the moment blog will still be precious metals and the financial crisis. She will share her experiences in this investment class and her overall plan after gold/silver. This is what groovygirl is doing with her money. You are responsible with what you do with your money.

Very important points:

She is not selling any gold or silver.

The real estate investment has NO debt attached to it. If it did, she would lose the options to get out of the investment with the capital input intact.

side musing: if we are facing the long-term collapse in real estate as Martin says, cash is king. Having 80-90% debt on a real estate investment will quickly turn into a capital loss on paper and will require more cash input to get out of.  Example: let’s say you have an 80% mortgage loan on a rental creating  monthly cash flow of $200. That is not a lot of breathing room. What if your house loses 30% in value, property taxes skyrocket, there is a new tax or fee for landlords in your area, or heaven forbid, the government takes away all the tax savings you get with real estate. These are scenarios where your cash flow would be impacted and your ability to sell the asset without putting in more cash to cover the mortgage obligation. You could very easily be stuck with an asset that creates negative cash flow and that’s not an asset. groovygirl would suggest no more than a 50% mortgage on a real estate investment in this environment, ideally no debt.

March 31, 2014

Latest blog post by Martin Armstrong dated March 31, 2014

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Is Obama Just Outclassed by Putin? dated March 31, 2014.

gg says: groovygirl isn’t sure if Obama is outclassed by Putin, but he is certainly out-statemened. Is that a word? What gg means is that, say what you will about Russia/communism/etc, Putin is one of the best statesmen and politicians ever seen of late. He is strategic. And you can bet he doesn’t do anything without exploring and anticipating all the possibilities and consequences ahead of time. He is well-prepared, and his actions are well-thought out. That’s something the US seems to have fallen short on.

Putin also has something on his global side that the US doesn’t seem to consider, growing hatred of America’s butting into everyone’s business under the guise of the “war on terror”. (He also has Russian nationaliam from within.) There was a time, when the USSR was seen as a force to be protected from. Now, that may or may not be true, but it is not Russia that is getting bad global press about eavesdropping on Merkel’s phone calls, it is the US. This hypocrisy is not lost on the rest of the world, and it is and will be used by Putin to his every advantage. And being the “underdog” is also in Putin’s favor.

This little spat with Putin is very concerning to groovygirl. It is big. At best, it will bring together the alternative trading currency and SWIFT systems that have started in Asia much quicker than thought. At the worst, it will start a regional war that the US is sure to lose and will not be backed by the people of the US. If Obama does not handle this Putin thing well and start aggressively rebuilding relations with Europe, Asia, and South America (instead of running to Saudi Arabia), this will be the middle of the big wave that changes global power not by war, but by currency and capital. gg doesn’t know who is advising Obama on foreign relations, but he is ill-advised. Putin is using the exact same tactic that the US used prior to the fall of Russia: protecting the little guy/country from the big, bad empire. And it will work for him just as it worked for the US.

The US can not continue sanctions, it will just drive the BRICS and their new trading system closer to a global alternative and cause even more global capital to go into hiding. The US can not use military action, the world and the US people are weary of long invasions. The US must take drastic and targeted actions to restore trust that it is a world leader by example, not a tsar and tyrant. The eroding of trust and confidence is at the core of this decentralizing cycle, causing all sorts of issues from global currency to capital flow to riots and revolutions to stock markets to NSA to government coups. It is a lack of confidence that is causing all the long time systems and institutions to be questioned, and in some cases, challenged.

This will be very interesting to watch. 

The big question is will these systems be torn down and rebuilt into something balanced and fair and really better, or will that be in name only and be tyranny under a more peaceful and tranquil guise? Once people get power, no matter how noble the original thought, they tend to try and keep that power no matter what. Even if they have abandoned the noble thoughts long ago. Power comes and goes. But character, the essence of man/woman when money, power and status are stripped away. Things like the search for truth, continuing education, openness, empathy; these things should not be changeable or put away when one’s power is threatened. These things are stoic, intertwined with the character, unwavering.

meekness is not weakness or powerlessness, but power under control.

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