muses of the moment

March 31, 2014

Latest blog post by Martin Armstrong dated March 31, 2014

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Is Obama Just Outclassed by Putin? dated March 31, 2014.

gg says: groovygirl isn’t sure if Obama is outclassed by Putin, but he is certainly out-statemened. Is that a word? What gg means is that, say what you will about Russia/communism/etc, Putin is one of the best statesmen and politicians ever seen of late. He is strategic. And you can bet he doesn’t do anything without exploring and anticipating all the possibilities and consequences ahead of time. He is well-prepared, and his actions are well-thought out. That’s something the US seems to have fallen short on.

Putin also has something on his global side that the US doesn’t seem to consider, growing hatred of America’s butting into everyone’s business under the guise of the “war on terror”. (He also has Russian nationaliam from within.) There was a time, when the USSR was seen as a force to be protected from. Now, that may or may not be true, but it is not Russia that is getting bad global press about eavesdropping on Merkel’s phone calls, it is the US. This hypocrisy is not lost on the rest of the world, and it is and will be used by Putin to his every advantage. And being the “underdog” is also in Putin’s favor.

This little spat with Putin is very concerning to groovygirl. It is big. At best, it will bring together the alternative trading currency and SWIFT systems that have started in Asia much quicker than thought. At the worst, it will start a regional war that the US is sure to lose and will not be backed by the people of the US. If Obama does not handle this Putin thing well and start aggressively rebuilding relations with Europe, Asia, and South America (instead of running to Saudi Arabia), this will be the middle of the big wave that changes global power not by war, but by currency and capital. gg doesn’t know who is advising Obama on foreign relations, but he is ill-advised. Putin is using the exact same tactic that the US used prior to the fall of Russia: protecting the little guy/country from the big, bad empire. And it will work for him just as it worked for the US.

The US can not continue sanctions, it will just drive the BRICS and their new trading system closer to a global alternative and cause even more global capital to go into hiding. The US can not use military action, the world and the US people are weary of long invasions. The US must take drastic and targeted actions to restore trust that it is a world leader by example, not a tsar and tyrant. The eroding of trust and confidence is at the core of this decentralizing cycle, causing all sorts of issues from global currency to capital flow to riots and revolutions to stock markets to NSA to government coups. It is a lack of confidence that is causing all the long time systems and institutions to be questioned, and in some cases, challenged.

This will be very interesting to watch. 

The big question is will these systems be torn down and rebuilt into something balanced and fair and really better, or will that be in name only and be tyranny under a more peaceful and tranquil guise? Once people get power, no matter how noble the original thought, they tend to try and keep that power no matter what. Even if they have abandoned the noble thoughts long ago. Power comes and goes. But character, the essence of man/woman when money, power and status are stripped away. Things like the search for truth, continuing education, openness, empathy; these things should not be changeable or put away when one’s power is threatened. These things are stoic, intertwined with the character, unwavering.

meekness is not weakness or powerlessness, but power under control.

March 26, 2014

The Loophole

Groovygirl has been searching for the loophole. The loophole that will keep the real estate market going (in the face of the complete fall off of mortgage apps in the last six months along with higher rates) through 2015, Martin Armstrong’s date; and the loophole that will trigger the next, and according to Martin, extended decline in the US real estate market thru 2032.

Click here for Martin’s paper and chart on the US real estate 78-yr cycle.

gg thinks she found the loophole.

Here is an article that groovygirl disagrees with, but it has some interesting information about the new Qualified Lending rules. From the linked article:

With the dislocations in mortgage lending since the housing bubble popped, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased their share of the mortgage market significantly. When combined with lending from the Federal Housing Administration and the Veteran’s Administration, the government or government-sponsored share of mortgage lending has climbed to more than 90 percent in recent years. That is an untenable situation in the long run, but is unlikely to change much this year.

The good news is that new Qualified Mortgage lending rules from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau exempt home mortgages that qualify for purchase or securitization from Fannie and Freddie. As a result, mortgage lenders won’t have to tighten their mortgage-underwriting requirements in response to QM as long as they sell their loans to the GSEs.

Side musing: groovygirl is feeling the same way she felt in 2005 and 2006: who in the world is left to get a mortgage? Haven’t we maxed out all plausable applicants? , no, some deceased people were left to carry on the housing market boom until 2007. Groovygirl just did not think dead people could get a loan and did not factor that in. Again, gg is thinking, with unemployment at a real rate of 23%, who else can possibly qualify for a mortgage, especially with all these new rules? Aren’t we maxed out. Apparently, it’s the GSEs to the rescue to help this thing along for another year or so.

Click here, looks like even the corporate buyers are slowing. But, they are saving their capital for the big transfer from Freddie and Fannie? Read on.

And here is the loophole for the next trigger….

Replacing Fannie and Freddie with private insurance (but with government bailout, if necessary). Be careful, groovygirl actually threw up when she read this. Click here. A quote from the link at Forbes:

Our political leadership is proposing that we abolish Fannie and Freddie for the sins of the banks and the mortgage lenders, and then hand over the keys to these same architects of the mortgage disaster that brought us to the brink of financial collapse.  We are still healing and these are serious people proposing that we again legislate our way to mortgage prosperity, using no more common sense than that which got us into this mess.  What could go wrong?

gg says: yes, what could go wrong? It looks like on the surface that getting rid of GSEs and “selling” them to private underwriting companies is a good thing. It will get the government off the hook for future collapses, right? Wrong!

But, the real reason for this extremely unwise decision. The transfer of wealth.

Here is a little tidbit from Catherine Austin-Fitts. She clearly knows the possibilities. It is a repeat of the same game as 1980′s.

Click here.
gg says: But this time is totally different, we are in a global debt deflation, global currency crisis (Japanese currency trades can’t get us out of this one), and an aging population and debt-ridden younger population.

From Catherine’s link above. You pay for the detail. Bold is gg’s.

The current proposal to phase out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has the potential for ever greater back door shenanigans. Lot’s of money that can go out through the back door when the federal government turns huge amounts of federal credit over to private insurance companies. For example, when FHA engaged in coinsurance with private mortgage insurance providers in the 1980’s, the FHA General Fund lost 50% of the $9 billion underwritten in 3 1/2 years. They were paid a mortgage insurance premium of .50%

Given AIG’s traditional role in these and related areas, and Berkshire Hathaway’s relatively new activities in municipal bonds and local realtors, is this part of the work up to the ultimate in reengineering the federal budget and housing finance system by place? I want to see the players behind the scenes.

gg says: looks like we are right on schedule for the next mortgage/insurance/housing/banking/hedge fund crisis. The good news: fire sale housing prices for those with cash!

March 14, 2014

Interview with Martin Armstrong

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Martin Armstrong — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:44 am

Martin Armstrong gives another excellent audio interview. Click here.

March 11, 2014

Math is the language of God

Filed under: Martin Armstrong, Odds 'n ends — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:10 am

A commentor from gg’s blog, DB, emailed Martin Armstrong about a trend in Pi. Click here. Very interesting.

March 8, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated March 8, 2014

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Martin Armstrong, Odds 'n ends — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:13 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Is Obama Just Insane? dated March 8, 2014.

gg says: Obama’s strong suit has never been international relations. Putin’s strong point has always been international relations. Perhaps, Obama wants a distraction? Doesn’t matter, as Martin states, this situation has the potential to escalate very rapidly.

February 27, 2014

Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post dated February 25, 2014

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Caesar-Beware of the Ides of March dated February 25, 2014. It looks like panic cycles in some major markets toward the end of March.

Ukraine is certainly heating up and global markets really have not reacted to this situation yet.

February 24, 2014

Martin Armstrong talks with Glen Downs Feb 20, 2014

Click here. A two-part interview, about 25 min total.

Martin brings up a good point. When current political governments are overturned, debt payments may not get paid. New governments want to give cash to the people, not overseas bank creditors or internal corrupt government/systems.

February 17, 2014

Martin Armstrong’s Global Market Watch

Filed under: Martin Armstrong — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 3:26 pm

Sorry, guys. Groovygirl has been a little ill. Feeling better now.

It looks like you need to register for a free subscription for the Global Market Watch. Click here. Click on the global market watch in blue, go to the top bar and click on Global Market Watch, click metals, and it will ask you to login or register. Click register. You should get email updates after you register.

February 10, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated February 8, 2014

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Martin Armstrong, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 2:30 am

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Gold and the Upside dated February 8, 2014.

February 9, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated February 6, 2014

Filed under: Martin Armstrong, Odds 'n ends — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:10 am

Click here for the latest blog post from Martin Armstrong entitled Vancouver Speech dated February 6, 2014. Very good post! There are some opportunities hiding there. Wherever there is creative destruction, there are opportunities for the little guy.

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