muses of the moment

August 29, 2014

Short-term gold bottom?

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals, Real Estate Investments — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:59 am

Jesse over at Cafe Americain suggests that the short-term gold bottom is in. gg agrees. Click here. Please read the explanation of the chart in the link to understand what it is saying.

Just to review where gg is coming from: after Martin Armstrong’s October 2015 turning point, long-term high for gold is 2017-2018. However, Martin is reserving a possible high well into 2023. gg is not disagreeing with Martin, but gold tends to run in 15-20 year cycles (those are complete cycles from low to high to return to “normal” pricing). Our current cycle began in 2000. It is possible that 2032 is the high of another cycle.

Click here for a normal bubble cycle chart. Bubble charts are for any market, as all markets go thru these cycles. If you look at the long-term chart here from Trader Dan. (It’s not up-t0-date, but you all know the price trend the last 18 months.) Notice that we are still holding to the 50% retracement (around $1300) of the new $1900 high. This is absolutely normal in the long-term cycle.

Side musing: Stocks tend to move opposite of gold in an inflation-adjusted chart of each market. That is happening right now. DOW in inflation-adjusted numbers is up and gold in inflation-adjusted number is down. That short-term trend started in 2012 (not 2009 as the stock market talking heads would have you believe). Up until that point, gold was still the better buy accounting for inflation. groovygirl always runs the calculations for inflation and taxes in any investment. If you don’t, you will not know if you are making a profit or not. But even in light of this short-term dip, gg bought more gold, she did not sell. She is in this for the long-term.

In this make-fast-money now, especially for our seniors on fixed incomes, long-term cycles can be frustrating. If you want fast money, do not buy gold. If you want to hold your purchasing power and protect a portion of your capital or estate against a complete breakdown in the global economy, buy some physical gold and hold long-term.

groovygirl’s only question is when will the high come and should she sell in 2015, 2017, 2018, or 2032. gg is looking very closely at the change in the USdollar that is surely coming. That will impact investment trends and profits. It is very possible that a change in the USdollar will happen in the 2017-2018 time frame requiring a quick fix that doesn’t hold. And another more long-term fix will be required 2032, effecting gold prices each time.

Side musing: sorry gg has been inconsistent in posting. She is working on another real estate deal. Not much happening in the gold market, just building for that next long-term move to the high in the midst of the chaos of the collapsing world economy and all the reactions to it. Heaven forbid someone should be proactive :)

July 23, 2014

What comes around goes around

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Odds 'n ends — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:36 am

From Martin Armstrong on Edward Snowden and fall of the American Empire. Click here.

From Martin: “This is precisely why Athens fell because they became arrogant and authoritative toward their allies.”

Groovygirl thinks what comes around goes around is the phrase of the decade. Otherwise known as Karma.

Side musing: gold still hanging out above $1300.

 

June 14, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated June 14, 2014

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Gold and Silver Investing, Martin Armstrong, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 7:47 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Gold dated June 14, 2014.

June 10, 2014

That China Issue…

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:40 am

Groovygirl is getting more and more concerned with the “disappearing” metals in China’s commodity warehouses. This will, of course, effect China and the national links of collateral, first. But, this is a global market. It is all connected.

The dark pools, unregulated trading, and questionable legal accounting practices, globally, make the end result unpredictable. gg can make one prediction: the Big Banks will get their money first….

gg remembers that it took about 12-18 months from the first rumors of trouble to the full blow up of MF Global. Looking back you could see the signs of MF Global well before JP Morgan called its loan. Twelve to eighteen months is usually how long it takes for these things to trigger and then impact other markets. But since investors are now aware of the MF Global-like possibilities, a race to the exits could occur at any time.

This story is not about fake gold, missing gold/copper, or really commodities at all. It is about the loans, debt, and credit that have been created and now are backed by nothing that is about to collapse and move into other markets/countries.

Click here. And here.

Jesse shares gg and others’ concerns. Click here.

groovygirl is watching this story closely. Have you personally visited your physical gold and silver lately? By the time this goes down, it will be too late to get your money out or get physical delivery, just like MF Global. Prepare, if you have not already.

Daily Gold

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 8:25 am

So far, $1250ish is holding….

June 4, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated June 3, 2014

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Gold and Silver Investing, Martin Armstrong, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:54 am

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Metal Update dated June 3, 2014.

From Martin on gold:

The two Daily Bearish Reversals are 1240 and 1186. We are holding the 1240 level for now with a minor Daily Bullish forming at 1262 and 1294. We see a turning point next week and the week of the 23rd. We do not see the meltdown yet without a monthly closing below 1190 area. We also see tomorrow as a turning point in both silver and gold.

Martin also has a silver chart and comments.

Martin Armstrong has a new mailing/office address:

Armstrong & Princeton Economics

Brandywine Plaza West
1521 Concord Pike
Suite 301
Wilmington DE 19803

ArmstrongEconomics@GMail.COM
Phone #:1-302-448-8080

groovygirl says:

As you may know, gg buys a certain about of physical gold and silver each year to hold long-term. She doesn’t trade metals anymore. She tries to pick the lowest point about every quarter to buy. I am buying a little of both this week. But I am waiting to see if we have a further drop in the next 2 weeks to buy a little more. This is what groovygirl is doing for her own personal financial goals. You are responsible for your own investing/financial decisions. Sorry gg has been absent, very busy! Hopefully things will slow down in the next few weeks and she can get back to regular posts. Thanks again for reading.

May 1, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated May 1, 2014

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Martin Armstrong, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 7:35 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Gold Update dated May 1, 2014.

Martin says gold is not quite ready for prime time.

groovygirl says: as a reminder, gg is still buying and holding physical gold and silver long term. She buys when prices are low or lower for the year. She does not trade metals anymore.

March 17, 2014

Carlyle Group

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:46 am

This was kind of interesting….click here.

March 12, 2014

Gold Up Today

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 3:41 pm

Gold is up today ($20.00 plus at one point). As Mr. Armstrong says, gold is hedge against stupid governments. Click here for the latest update on that Ukraine “situation”.

This should end well.

March 11, 2014

High Frequency Trading

Tyler Durden via zerohedge had an excellent article this morning about the amazing winning percentages of HFT platforms. Apparently the big market for “winning” is currencies. Making fiat money on fiat money with the fastest computer. Fake money and fake traders. Welcome to the virtual world.

Click here.

But the most interesting thing about this post is not that computers control HFT trading, that the fastest and closest computers always win, that these HFT fat fingers can take down a market in milliseconds, or that currency markets are the main trading market they use to do it.

The scary thing about this chart is that there is a losing side to the winning computer’s HFT bet. Those extraordinary profits were taken from someone’s capital, debt, or savings. And who is that losing side? This is a another angle of the biggest wealth transfer in history.

Side musing: gg thought this little item about Ukraine’s gold air-lifted to NYFed for “safe-keeping” was interesting. Click here. Maybe it is collateral for that billion dollar loan?

Older Posts »

Theme: Shocking Blue Green. Get a free blog at WordPress.com

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 81 other followers