muses of the moment

January 3, 2013

Alf Field on gold in 2013

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 8:28 am

Click here for Alf Field’s thoughts on gold via Jim Sinclair’s website. We are still in the long term 3rd wave to $3500, but Alf looks at some minor waves in the link.

Update 1-4-13: Alf suggested in the above link that a dip below 1636 would render the analysis void. We dipped below 1630 prior to open this morning (1-4-13). Let’s not discount Alf’s conclusions yet. The shorts read Alf too. Let’s see if those lows are sustained for more than a few hours prior to a NY open.

August 1, 2012

Alf Field July 31, 2012

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:46 pm

Jim Sinclair ran Alf Field’s latest examination of the gold market.

Click here.

The low gold price on 23 July 2012 was $1564, certainly not a new low. Yet the gold price started rising almost immediately. Within a couple of days the gold price had broken upwards through the downtrend line that had been in place since the end of February 2012. This is a very positive development which will be greatly enhanced if the gold price continues to move strongly upwards over the coming days and weeks.

The bottom line is that we now have a really strong probability that the correction which started at $1913 on 23 August 2011 has been completed both in terms of Elliott waves and also in terms of time elapsed. If this is correct, the gold price should soon be expressing itself in violent upside action as it moves into the third of third wave which is still targeted to reach $4500.

July 2, 2012

What is Alf Field’s number for gold?

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 2:38 pm

Jim Sinclair has been mentioning Alf Field’s number for gold a lot lately.

So, what is it?

Scroll down the post to Alf Field’s wave ranges: click here.

Alf uses the Elliott Wave Theory to come up with five large ranges for gold. There is no time line in Elliott Wave, it is based on when the low and high of a range is reached. However, gold long cycles historically run 15-20 years. We are currently in Wave 3 up. The current estimate of final wave 5 is $10,000.

Update: a request to clarify:

From silverorgold:

HI again,

Just wanted to say thanks for the steady updates and its appreciated. I just want to ask how did you come up with gold bull market usually lasts 15-20 years? I was always told Gold bull markets usually last about 10 years says Jim Rogers? if my memory serves me right…

Groovygirl’s response:

Perhaps, I should have clarified. A gold cycle usually lasts 15-20 years from lowest to highest price. But the first few years are just a very slow steady rise or bottom bouncing. The recent low in gold was in 1999, but it took until 2005-2006 for it to double in price. Chart. Most investors would not consider 1999-2006 to be a bull gold market, but the beginning of the gold long cycle which ends in a gold bull market.

gg tends to interchange 1999 and 2001 as the start of the long cycle. However, this is not absolutely correct. 2001 is the start of the winter season of the Long Wave Cycle. It happens that gold/silver is a good investment during the winter cycle and the long gold cycle technically started in 1999. They run tandem in this debt collapse/winter cycle, but they are really two different long cycles. The “bull” part of the gold cycle will be around the same time (or a reaction to) the serious debt collapse of the winter cycle. 2008 was warm up for the main show, which Martin says is in 2015. So the key years are 2015-2017 for major disruption and gold to accelerate.

The Elliott Wave Theory covers the whole gold cycle, not just the bull part.

This is why gg likes Martin Armstrong’s call for a high in gold by 2017. But he calls it at $5000. (Martin did have the top in 2015, but moved it to 2017 around the time he got his computer back.) 2015 is now Martin’s date for global sovereign debt crisis.

gg likes Martin’s timing and Alf’s price for gold :) But time will tell.

Sorry for any confusion.

May 1, 2012

Alf Fields

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:53 am

A note from Alf Fields to Jim Sinclair:

Gold has Bottomed, Alf Fields

Elliott Wave Gold Update: In the article “What Happened to Gold” dated 1 March 2012, the “other possibilities” mentioned in the event of gold dropping below $1650 related firstly to the 61.8% retracement of the prior rise. The prior rise was from $1523 to $1792, so the 61.8% retracement was $1626. There was a further possibility of the retracement being 2/3 of the prior rise, also a Fibonacci relationship. That produced a figure of $1612. The first number $1626 did provide some support to the market but the absolute low was $1612.8 on 4 April 2012. This low came at the culmination of a double zig-zag correction, which adds to the validity of that low. The odds now suggest that the gold correction bottomed at $1612.8 on 4 April 2012 and that the gold market is in the early stages of a sharp upward move.

Apr 28, 2012
Alf Field

Click here.

March 2, 2012

Alf Fields on Gold’s Movement This Week

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:13 pm

Click here for a post (via Jim Sinclair’s site) from Alf Fields on gold’s movement this week, including charts, and an explanation of the Elliott Wave Theory as it relates to this week’s move.

February 10, 2012

Jim Sinclair’s and Alf Field’s Prices for Gold

Jim Sinclair has reposted some equations he has used to get a top price in gold. Jim (and his relatives) have been in this business for a long time. He knows what he is talking about. These are some of the prices that groovygirl is using to decide when to sell gold near the top.

Disclaimer: This is what gg is doing. You will have to decide for yourself what to do and when. GG also acknowledges that government policy could influence when, or even if, to sell all gold.

Click here. Complete post reproduced here.

Dear CIGAs,

Here is a review of the why of the gold price when push comes to shove.

Gold always attempts to balance the international balance sheet of the USA as a function of price multiplied by the gold supposedly held.

The subjective mind of the market is the means to the end from the beginning of written history and before gold functioned as a money based standard of value and measure.

Gold’s Role During Periods Of Monetary Stress
March 4, 2009, at 5:18 pm

by Jim Sinclair in the category General Editorial

Dear CIGAs,

Gold’s job is, and will always attempt to during periods of monetary stress, balance the INTERNATIONAL Balance Sheet of the USA.

Putting the Numbers Into The Equation:

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000 ounces of gold = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold.

In the early 70s I put an advertisement in Barrons predicting gold would rise to $900. When it got near that level, I left for 21 years.

I reappeared officially when Forbes published an article on my career December 10th of 2001. Click here to view the Forbes article…

The mathematics behind the $900 number came from the following equation plus reasonable trend estimates on the number going into the future.

You will note the number today fits in nicely with Alf’s high levels.

  • Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
  • Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
  • Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
  • Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
  • Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

I would not have revealed this unless a recognized expert who has a 100% track record such as Alf Fields predicted it first.

I did not wish to yell “fire in the theatre.”

It certainly make the Comex manipulators, who could easily be stopped, look long-term silly today.

Jim

See the following two links as support:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/FDHBFIN.txt

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_gold_reserves
In the past, I believe you have said that the price of gold could reach a level whereby in dollar terms this equation will hold:

Oz’s of Gold Held by US x $ Price of Gold = External Debt

From the above links we find:

Federal Debt held by Foreign Investors = $3,125,000,000,000 (as of 12/31/08)

Official US Gold holdings = 8,133.5 tonnes (or 260,272,000 oz’s)

Putting the #’s into the equation:

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000  = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold

My question is – what is the mechanism or thought process that makes the equation true?

(I guess that I am looking for the why?)

Thank you for your time.
CIGA Rich Gold

Click here for Jim Sinclair’s Golden Angels. These are the prices of support and resistance as we make our way to the top price. We usually take 2-3 steps forward quickly and fall back 1-2 steps and establish a base for the next steps up. It can be slow and frustrating process when you lose sight of the final top. The gold long cycle that started in 1999 usually lasts 15-20 years.

February 2, 2012

Alf Field’s update on silver

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:33 pm

Updated: Alf’s complete email with charts. Click here.

Click here for Alf Field’s update in silver. It is possible to have silver reach $158 in next 18 months.

Alf’s next target for gold is $4,500 and I think this silver target of $158 makes sense because that would put the gold/silver ratio just under 30.  I think we could see Alf’s targets of $4,500 gold and $158 silver this year or certainly in the next 18 months.  This is going to be a quick move.  In Elliott terms this is the 3 of 3, which is the strongest wave.

January 12, 2012

Alf Field says The Gold Correction is Over

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 4:57 pm

Click here for an updated analysis from Alf Field dated January 12, 2012. Also included are updated charts based on Alf’s application of the Elliott Wave Theory.

There is a strong probability that the correction in the price of gold has been completed. This article has four separate sections. They are:

1. The Elliott Wave (EW) justification for thinking that the correction in gold is over.

2. Why corrections happen in gold from a fundamental viewpoint.

3. The extent to which manipulation affects the gold price.

4. A possible “black swan” event that could trigger a gold price surge.

Click here for a reminder of Jim Sinclair’s Angels for gold.

November 15, 2011

Alf Fields Talks about Gold

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:07 pm

Alf Fields appeared at the Sydney Gold Symposium. Click here for a summary of that speech via Jim Sinclair’s site. As Alf has stated we are in major wave three of a five wave long-term uptrend in gold that began in 2001.

“Once this correction has been completed, Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE will be underway. This should be the largest and strongest wave in the entire gold bull market. The target for this wave should be around $4,500 with only two 13% corrections on the way.”

Be sure to read the entire link and check out that charts. VERY IMPORTANT READ. Perhaps you will feel better about owning physical gold in the mist of the last correction in 2011.

Alf’s warning:

There are two things that are different about the current episode. This is the first time in history that fiat or government issued currency has been in use in every country around the world at the same time. Secondly, we have an electronic money system which is very efficient. It enables new money to be created at a faster rate than ever before.

Every experiment with government issued fiat money has ended with the destruction of that money There is no reason to believe that it will be different this time. The world’s 40 year experiment with floating “I owe you nothing” fiat currencies is coming to an end.

I have come out of retirement for this one off, once only, speech to warn that the good ship “Life As We Know It” is sinking.

You have the choice of getting into a life boat now or going down with the ship. The life boats consist of precious metals and other assets that will survive the coming currency destruction.

It is likely that gold will be the new unit of measurement or standard of value against which the performance of other assets will be judged. The challenge will be to find assets that perform better than gold.

Mr. Fields makes a very good point. Even if gold is a minor player in any new creation of global currency, it will become the way investors value assets in the mist of the collapse of all fiat global currencies. Start using this investment tool now to understand the real change in the value of assets you own or plan to buy or sell in the future.

There is also an extensive explanation of how the Elliott Wave works with gold. Groovygirl didn’t see an updated chart on the final high of gold, so she will assume it is still around $10,000 or higher. Long-term, gold is still very cheap today. GG wishes she had extra cash to buy more.

Side musing: groovygirl can not emphasize enough that you need to take action now, if you have not already. First, protect your savings and retirement funds. Second save “money” in physical metals and food. Third, store food and water for an emergency or extended unemployment. Fourth, develop a skill that you can trade for physical gold and silver or food and shelter.

Put at least 20% of your assets  in physical gold and silver. (Alf Fields says he had 40% in gold in 2003.) If you do not have assets, buy silver American Eagle coins and store food and water on a monthly basis. Learn a skill that you can trade for food or other daily needs if you should lose your job. This could be anything from gardening to wood working to installing solar panels.  Think about basic skills needed for a family’s survival day-to-day for an extended period of time, if the government was unable to aid them.

There are many, many more things you can do depending on your family’s current situation, but listed above is the minimum actions that should be taken now.

September 28, 2011

Alf Field’s son talks about his famous dad and economics

Filed under: Fiat Currency, Hyperinflation, The Banking Crisis, The Dollar Crisis, The Financial Crisis — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:06 am

Click here for a post written by Alf Field’s son at thebookboxer (sent to me via the muses comment section). He discusses fiat money and his dad’s economic vision. His post has very good links to Alf’s papers and videos. Very informative resource.

Groovygirl found it most interesting (and so sad) that Mr. Field’s son, Greg, took a graduate class in Applied Finance and not once learned anything about the history of money. Everything he learned about monetary history, he learned from his father. Wow, no wonder we are doomed to repeat every mistake of past global money systems. We are doomed.

Side musing: groovygirl has no way of personally verifying that this is indeed Alf’s son. But judging from the text and videos, this post is consistent with other published ideas and videos of Mr. Field.

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