muses of the moment

January 9, 2009

The years ahead

Filed under: Inflation, The Financial Crisis — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 4:46 pm

In studying several economists, there are 3 cycles that are ending around the same time. It is causing some of the financial issues we are seeing now, but will cause these issues to intensify in the next few years.

We should see a “dead cat bounce” in the financial markets through to March 2009. Then a steady decline until June of 2011. International monetary issues should still be in the forefront until 2015.

In relation to the DOW number, I am not saying that it will go down as a number. It may go up, but because of inflation and the loss of purchasing power of the US dollar (see references in past posts), the VALUE will be down.

So, if you need to use your stock investments or retirement funds to live on before 2015, it’s time to make some changes. My past posts have suggested those possible changes.

As I have stated before, if you have all your savings in the stock market, adjusted for inflation and the loss on the dollar, you have LOST money since 1999, even before 2008.

The unemployment numbers came out today for December and readjusted October and November numbers, bringing the official employment to 7.5%. According to John Williams at, with the statistic gimmicks taken out, we are at 17.5%. For reference the 1970’s recession was 15% and the 1930’s depression was 30%.

Be prepared for things to change quickly. The tools you have learned in the past 20 years will need to be modified. The next twenty years will not be the same as the past twenty years. If you accept this, then you will be ahead of everyone else. If you don’t, you will not understand why doing the same thing you have always done is not working.

I highly suggest going through Chris Martenson’s The Crash Course. It is free online and will help you understand the three main cycles that are coming to a close all in the same time frame. Cycles need not be feared, just acknowledged. The course is over 3 hours long, but can be divided up into the chapter headings, most not more than 5-15 minutes long.

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