muses of the moment

April 8, 2009

6 Comments »

  1. Hi Totally groovy Girl

    Right on. I am with you in terms of investment strategy. Study the trends. Keep it simple.

    I only stumble upon Martin Armstrong’s articles early this year.

    I see lots of extraordinarily truths in his articles. So I think that he should not be ignored.

    His articles are not an easy read. However, his description of the waterfall effect on equities is one item which struck a familiar core in me.

    While most North Americans and the British have never experienced a waterfall effect on equities in their life time, I have seen one.

    I am Canadian, and I have worked abroad in Asia.

    I participated in the 1990s “Asian economic miracle”. I saw the effects of the July 1997 Asian financial crisis. As the crisis spread, most of Southeast Asia experienced currency devaluations. When it happened, my Asian co-workers watched helplessly as not only did their currencies; but their properties, goods produced – suddenly, quietly, and within a short time span, devalued.

    Fast forward back to this side of the world and 2009, Armstrong is predicting steep reversal of fortunes to come about this summer.

    The swiftness and abruptness of the Asian financial crisis reminds me that the upcoming April 19 could be a possible starting marker date as to when Armstrong’s dire economic predictions become reality. A low, low closing number for the DOW. Although gold prices are currently manipulated; as the DOW goes down, gold prices should logically float upwards.

    In conclusion, I am also watching the market movements very closely to determine if Martin Armstrong is indeed, a financial savant and my future guiding light to higher profits.

    Onlooker

    Comment by Onlooker — April 19, 2009 @ 6:20 pm

  2. I am anxious to see if this is the waterfall effect or not that Martin Armstrong speaks of. I have not studied the Asian Crisis, when did the currency start to regain value? I am trying to reconcile the possible waterfall effect and the certain hyperinflation. Can the USdollar follow the waterfall effect as a global reserve currency, falling never to return, but yet the US dollar follow a hyperinflation within the US.?

    Thoughts?

    Groovygirl

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — April 19, 2009 @ 8:24 pm

  3. To your question: “Can the US dollar follow the waterfall effect as a global reserve currency, falling never to return, but yet the US dollar follow a hyperinflation with the US?”

    My honest answer is that because I am not a professional trader or broker and was not educated in economics or finance; I simply am not qualified to respond.

    Also, though Tim Geithner and company claim to have the authority and qualifications to respond to an economic question such as yours, I do not think they are capable of responding to anyone with a truthful or correct answer.

    However, I am currently looking into Martin Armstrong’s articles for answers to your questions.

    Why, Martin Armstrong, you wonder?

    Because there is the possibility that Martin Armstrong is a true financial savant.

    Please allow me here to diverge, and talk about Stephen Wiltshire, an extraordinary artist savant who has been called the “Human Camera.”

    If you have not heard about him, do google him to learn everything about him. Stephen Wiltshire sees and likes repetitions, and patterns in the environment.

    He has been documented to have a visual photographic memory, giving him the ability to recreate highly detailed drawings after a few minutes of viewing the subject matter.

    Now back to Martin Armstrong.

    There is the possibility that Martin Armstrong is an extraordinary financial savant. That he can see all financial cycles in the past, present and future as given in great details in his articles. He may have an extraordinary memory of all historical financial events, and be able to note all economic highs and lows.

    Yet, he may be a financial savant who can only make correct predictions some and not all the time, because he is jailed and under great mental anguish. He is human and will be imperfect.

    So, what does Martin Armstrong says about hyperinflation?

    In Martin Armstrong’s Destroying April Formation Economic Suicide dated March 23, 2009, page 14, he states:

    ”Being very conservative, if the amount of de-leveraging in global debt is at least $30 trillion, even if we pump in $5 trillion, it would not be inflationary.”
    “The dollar does not yet appear in danger of a collapse just yet. The event horizon is shortening. Nonetheless, the serious problems may start to emerge after the summer of 2009. This is the true catalyst that will be behind the gold rally – not inflation, but currency destabilization.”

    My thoughts on his comments?

    No inflation. Just deflation.

    That the current talk about US dollar devaluation will be the upcoming currency destabilization. So his best advice is to get out of US dollars.

    Countries and noted Americans (ex: Rogers) are already getting out of US dollars.
    See below articles:

    Brazil, Argentina abandon US dollar
    7 Oct 2008 … Brazil and Argentina have launched a new payment system in their bilateral trade, doing away with the US dollar as a medium of exchange. …

    News Kontent: China’s Torpedo Play: Yuan Set to Replace Dollar in Asia
    The Yuan will soon replace the dollar as the new Asian regional reserve currency. … With the likelihood of China, Russia, Korea, Taiwan and Japan all eventually joining and … enable Asian countries to decouple completely from both their feckless US dollar dependency … Posted by kevin at 3/07/2009 09:15:00 AM …

    What does Martin Armstrong says about waterfall effect?

    In Martin Armstrong’s Destroying April Formation Economic Suicide dated March 23, 2009, page 11, he states:

    I provided the adjacent table in the December 24th, 2008 report providing the overall ……….. The main resistance is standing at 8400, and we need a weekly closing back above this level just to negate an immediate Waterfall Effect for conclusion of 2009.

    The earliest turning point appears to be April 2009. Yes, we have …………The key weekly target seems to be the week of July 5th, 2009. A simple Breakline on the monthly chart places the ideal technical support at around 4200 of July.

    My thoughts on his comments?

    In 2009, the DOW has been unable to close above 8400.

    So, according to Martin Armstrong, there will be a Waterfall Effect on equities. That it may be around the 4000’s in July.

    In my opinion, in addition to your comment on the price of gold between April 19th, and mid-June; Martin Armstrong’s Waterfall Effect is a huge, out on the limb prediction which will determine if he is or is not an extraordinary financial savant.

    To your question: “I am anxious to see if this is the waterfall effect or not that Martin Armstrong speaks of. I have not studied the Asian Crisis, when did the currency start to regain value?”

    My answer is there are no similarities between the Asian Crisis and the current global financial crisis. As mentioned by many financial analysts the current global financial crisis has many unprecedented elements in it such as unresolved quadrillion derivates, trillions of dollars debts, trillions of dollars bailouts, etc…

    I only want people to note that I have seen the waterfall effect on equities; and for me, it was during the Asian Crisis. And that it is indeed a very quick and deadly financial event. And a possibility for North America.

    I also want to add that North American financial commentators / government people are talking deflation, or inflation easing into another type of “flation”.

    Whereas, Martin Armstrong is not using such gentle words of easing into. Instead, he is using harsh words like volatile, meltdown, destabilization and … waterfall. Armstrong is saying that the current crisis can suddenly get worse on a flip of a coin.

    Onlooker

    Comment by Onlooker — April 21, 2009 @ 3:04 am

  4. Where can I download the full essay as of this date, 5-6-09? Thanks

    Comment by jshurley — May 6, 2009 @ 1:48 pm

  5. The letter this post is referring to is entitled: Destroying Capital Formation

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — May 6, 2009 @ 2:08 pm

  6. […] Read his words here (page 11-14) are relevent to the market movements.  […]

    Pingback by Martin Armstrong and Gold Predictions « muses of the moment — June 22, 2009 @ 3:59 pm


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