muses of the moment

November 30, 2009

Holiday crash update

Max has a good video sum-up of the Thanksgiving Dubai announcement. Click here.

The Dubai government has announced that they will set up a fund to help the Dubai company. This is a distraction. They will use this fund to do just what Max says…..sell assets cheap to insider investors and let the debt implode and all the world-wide credit derivatives associated with these investments die a slow death.

Another opinion from Jim Sinclair’s website….click here.

The most interesting part of this announcement…..timing. Wednesday night was the beginning of a US holiday, and thus most of the global trading volume was low. It was also a regional holiday so the people were distracted as well. The censorship of US and EU newspapers in Dubai over the holiday is also interesting.

This is part of the greatest wealth transfer in history. Implode the indebted investment, screw the investor, buy the real assets cheap. This pattern will continue until the global debt to asset ratio is sustainable again. Look for more of the same.

When it is all over, the very rich will be ultra rich and the rest will be poor. The US will be bankrupt. This will happen in your lifetime, probably within a decade. This will not be announced, there will be no national warning. It will not be covered by the media, it will be denied. Disinformation and distraction will be the core of the news hour.

Protect your investments and savings now, if you have not already done so.

Side musing: Martin Armstrong’s fight, click here. Warren Pollock’s thoughts on Martin Armstrong’s situation and other thoughts (take from it what you will). Click here.

Side musing update: Monday afternoon, November 30, 2009: it looks like the email/fax/attorney campaign worked. Martin Armstrong will not be moved to another prison at this time. Click here for the latest update.

 

November 27, 2009

Martin Armstrong latest predictions…..

Filed under: Long term investing — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 3:39 pm

………have to be true.

They have hit a nerve somewhere.

They are trying to move Mr. Armstrong where he can not issue his letters anymore. Click here.

Here is a link to Nathan’s blog for more detail. This is very concerning.

Words have power, truth has power.

Update: Monday, November 30, 2009: it looks like the email/fax/attorney campaign worked. Martin Armstrong will not be moved to another prison at this time. Click here for the latest update.

Holiday crash

There are very dangerous things happening in the financial world right now. Monday morning will be interesting.

Wednesday evening: Dubai (the country) wants 6 mos to pay their next debt payment and makes the suggestion they might default. This could be a way to get better terms, because of the timing of this announcement. Don’t know, but same effect on the market right now.

Panic on the Thanksgiving holiday in any market that is open around the world.

Greek stock market plunges 7%

London FSTE suspends trades for 3 hours.

Dollar is up, dollar is down.

Gold moves in both directions.

Today, NYSE issues rule 48 (the don’t panic rule). More here. As the US stock futures are in free fall on the holiday weekend.

I will watch this over the weekend….Monday is going to be VERY INTERESTING.

We are in the K-wave winter cycle trying to be controled by governments, debt implosion is and will be a roller coaster ride.

November 26, 2009

Gold price

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 2:50 pm

Gold and silver prices looked nice this week, didn’t they?

Happy Thanksgiving!

November 25, 2009

November 21, 2009

FED’s printing press still running full speed

Click here for the full article analysis.

The FED has publicly and secretly injected $268 billion in the economy in the last 2 months.

This says to groovygirl that there is a secret crisis happening NOW that the FED is trying to print its way out. Whether their plan works or not in the short-term, this confirms a flood of dollars at some point coming back to haunt the FED and destroy the middle class’s savings. The dollar will continue to lose money long-term.

If we are in a recovery, there would be no reason to print so much. We are NOT in a recovery, but a “cover-up”. I find it interesting that all of the F-TV talking heads have nothing to say about this major financial development. Of course, they haven’t covered the bogus changes in the accounting rules to bury toxic debts either.

An uninformed investor will lose his investment.

November 19, 2009

Martin Armstrong’s latest letter:A Forecast for Real Estate

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest letter dated November 15, 2009 entitled A Forecast for Real Estate. (12 pages) Same letter but different link here.

Excellent read. If you are a home owner or plan to be one, read this real estate prediction of Martin Armstrong and his cycle theory. Homes as investments need to be view differently in the next 20 years than they did in the last 20 years.

We are in a 26 year decline in real estate as an investment class.
Therefore, houses should no longer be looked at as a place to store one’s wealth for the next 26 years. Prices (in inflation-adjusted terms) will be declining during this period and will not “keep up” with inflation as well as gold or possibly stocks.
Therefore, if you want to purchase a house, look at it as a sustainable place to live for the next 20 years and only from that perspective. This has definite value for survival and living, but not an investment. Energy/water prices will go up, so having the ability to modify your own house has value, but don’t expect to get money out of your house to make those additions. The value will not rise as it did between 2000-2007.
It looks like the real estate market will turn upward in 2012, but will peak and take a hard slow decline in 2015 until 2023.
Just things to think about for the timing of purchasing or selling.
If you have most of your “retirement savings” in your home, do not rely on that as your only retirement funding. Start saving now in other investments.
Some real estate categories that may fair better…commercial real estate bought cheap and with a small or no mortgage where rents will keep up with inflation. And land/farms, bought cheap with little mortgage where commodities can be produced that will keep up with inflation.
At the end of this cycle (2030), it will be time to look at real estate as a possible investment again. This will be the beginning of the “spring” cycle of the K-wave.
Update: additional post about Martin’s Real Estate Cycle.

November 18, 2009

Martin Armstrong’s latest letter:Capital Flight

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest letter dated November 11, 2009 entitled Capital Flight: The USA Has Lost It’s Stature as the Financial Capital of the World. (14 pages)

This is a good one, please read.

Quotes from Martin’s letter:

“ What we must do is dissect the whole economic structure and study HOW it works in order to understand the solutions. We cannot proceed just on OPINIONS. Where’s the proof? Where’s the study? Where is the evidence of what you say is correct?

What has taken place over the years post World War Two is that the concentration of wealth in the United States caused a false sense of invincibility. The housing market had a good run. From roughly the 1955 period, we have seen about a 52-year rally into 2007. It appears we may have reached a major high in real estate and this is of great concern. For if this is the case, then what in fact we are actually looking at is a serious contraction in what people believe has been their long term Piggy Bank.

This trend is converging with the retirement of the baby boomers. It is also converging with the securitization of real estate pools that created the 2007 high in February. This combines even still with the dangerous problem we have of the debt that is also starting to implode on a STATE and NATIONAL basis.

Effectively, because we are not the financial capital of the world as we were in the 1930s, the trend that emerges will be different as well. When capital was fleeing Europe and rushed to the dollar driving that up in price so that we then turned to protectionism, the opposite is now taking place whereas the dollar is falling as capital is fleeing, so if we see anything, the high degree of imports will be inflationary in the US, not deflationary.

With the banking system still in deep denial and capital beginning to show signs of caution shortening its maturity even in sovereign debt, the long-term horizon will also collapse. The more difficult it becomes to fund long term, the greater the deflationary effect will be in housing. Never the less, this will not (deflation) be any national trend.

What we have is an inflation pressure in other sectors that we will see manifested in stocks and commodities. It is the real estate that is still leveraged and will take a serious impact upon exclusively real estate. If funds are not available to provide long-term mortgages, then the prices in this sector will continue to fall. That is not the same fate that is shares by the rest of the financial world.

It is the lack of liquidity in the real estate market that is the problem. Prices reflect the ability to borrow 30 years of future income. As that contract, prices collapse.

We do not have that of leverage in stocks and commodities.

Consequently, The future that lies ahead is not as easy as most would want you to think. The core interrelationships will shift and change. We are facing a serious problem with the real estate sector as a whole, and this will be reflected again in the second phase of the major crash that began 2007.15 precisely to the day. The banking crisis is not over either. As this turmoil brews you will see every fundamental idea of how market function will be laid bare on the sidewalk of ruin. This is not the time for opinions. This is time for serious work.”

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary on Martin’s Letter:

The article by Armstrong presents conclusions based on fact, not opinion. It makes present time comparisons that must draw your attention to the equity markets in the Weimar experience.

It helps explain the increasing prices of goods and materials in a period of at best modest demand. It refers to the large currency exiting from the US, which may well have to do, among others things, with those huge profits made since April of 2009 by the financial industry.

It is a thesis, as I see it, for Martin Armstrong’s courage to state, at risk to all he has, his reputation in markets, the conclusion that gold is going to $5000.

It explains the stair step that Trader Dan has been outlining for us. This is a time for data, not opinions as opinions lead to confusion. Data leads to actionable conclusions.

It is more foundation for me to say gold will trade at $1224, $1278, $1650 and then of to Alf and Armstrong’s numbers.

November 17, 2009

Newest from Shadowstats.com

John Williams from shadowstats.com has some good information this week. This site is the BEST! It has the real data…not the government’s gimmicks stuff. You have to pay for the detail, but it is worth every penny. The link is on my blogroll, lots of free stuff as well.

Jump in September Trade Deficit
Places Downside Pressure on GDP Revision

Annual CPI Inflation to Surge
Turning Positive by November

Credit Squeeze Intensifies

Irrespective of near-term market gyrations, the long-term outlook remains extremely bearish for U.S. equities and the U.S. dollar, and extremely bullish for gold and silver. The economy still faces an eventual hyperinflationary great depression, with high risk of that circumstance beginning to unfold in the year ahead.

New feature at the site:

Shadow Government Statistics New Site Feature: Search Function. We now have our own “search engine” available at the top-right hand corner of each web-page. Searching is a difficult thing to make both simple and effective, and so we provide some “Search Tips” (see link at top of Search Page) and we ask for your patience and comments on your experience with using it.

One tip to stress is that in searching for common terms, such as “GDP” and “unemployment” it is best to use some other key words or a date range, in order to narrow down the search results. So, if you are trying to find comments on, say, the 1st Qtr 2008 GDP report, you might narrow the search to content published between April 1, 2008 and December 31, 2008.

We also have ideas at the planning stage for a further index of data series reports which we hope to provide soon.

November 16, 2009

GLD ETF warning

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:41 pm

Very interesting article by Rob Kirby on marketorcale.co.uk from Nov. 12th. Click here for the whole story.

GLD is not consistent in their gold bar numbers, yet the fund only expands, not contracts. Do not have all your gold holdings in this fund.

There could be many fake gold bars on the market. If true or not, very gold bullish. If true, could be hidden for a long while from the market. This seems only to apply to bars, not coins. “Fake” Kennedy US Bonds in Italy (twice!) and now this. Very interesting.

Side musing: Goldman Sachs’ largest current holding is GLD. I find this interesting considering their impact in driving up the stock markets this summer. Makes me wonder if they are holding long term or short term or trading daily?

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