muses of the moment

December 31, 2010

Martin Armstrong’s 2011 Predictions

Click here for the updated post regarding Martin Armstrong’s 2010 predictions and see how well he did!

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s 2012 predictions.

Actually, Martin Armstrong hasn’t made any predictions for 2011. But he has mentioned some market perimeters in his letters of 2010. Statements in quotes are directly from Martin Armstrong’s letters.

Update January 5, 2011: Martin Armstrong’s latest letter, just received, dated December 22, 2010, has some updates to the info below. Click here for the full letter, market info is on page 7. Updates below are in blue.

Here we go.

DOW-neutral-higher

“When we look ahead to 2011, the resistance will stand at $12,500-$12,900 level followed by $13,340. The primary support begins as high as $10,608 level assuming we close above that level. (Which we have at $11,577.) This should be a very important pivot area even into 2012. Above the market, we will have this $11,800-$11,935 as critical pivotal resistance also for the next two years into 2012. Well below the market, we have the $7,400-$7,290 that will also be the major pivot support for the next two years.”

“The big turning point will be the June of 2011. If the DOW retests support precisely to the day, then we should see a very strong bull market thereafter going into the high for the top of the next 8.6 year wave in 2015.75.”

groovygirl’s comments: A high into 2015 could be inflation or dollar debasement, not actual real return on investment.

Update: Dow support at 9400. A buy signal required a close above 11927, which we did not get. But since it was close, it is a continuing bullish signal (or neutral) for the near term.

PANIC CYCLE-2015

“Looking into the future, it does appear that 2015 is going to be a YEARLY PANIC CYCLE with massive huge volatility into 2016.”

groovygirl’s comments: A panic cycle doesn’t necessary mean a crash. It means extreme volatility, uncertainty, and panic. It is groovygirl’s opinion that 2015 is the year that the dollar dies.

GOLD-up

“The monthly chart shows a primary channel that stands at $1,400-$1,480 for 2010 and $1,480-$1,660 for 2011. It is this later channel on the monthly level that is likely to present the overhead resistance.”

“Looking ahead the main support lies at $1,030-$1,047 level. This will be the pivot support throughout 2011. This suggests that the broader long-term trend on a near-term basis will remain bullish as long as gold stays above this level for 2011.”

Click here for the Gold $5,000+ letter from 2009. The last 3 pages are very informative! Click here for the most recent letter about gold from 2010 (lots of good charts in this letter).

Gold is what investors buy when they are not confident in the economic climate/government policies. We have seen that type of buying in 2010, it will continue in 2011.

Martin sees the possibility for $5,000 gold by 2015. If that is the case, gold could rise in 2011 on its way to that number. But remember, expect volatility in the gold market, do not day-trade gold.

groovygirl’s comments: we are ending the year sort of in-between Martin’s channels ($1,421.60). Groovygirl is going to go with higher gold in 2011 trading within Martin’s upper channel prediction or between $1480-$1660. Silver has done wonderfully in 2010, ending the year at $30.91.

Update: Silver is bullish. Gold could retest support at some point this year, but will be at $5,000 by 2015.

REAL ESTATE-falling

Same prediction as 2010. Martin is calling for a temporary bottom in 2012 and a rise in 2015. (This time line falls right in line with the remaining mortgages from the big bubble that must “reset” between now and 2013.) Then, a slow, very bad decline into 2030. (This time line represents reality hitting the bank balance sheets that finally start effecting housing prices in a very real way.)

This is a 26-year decline in real estate. So this means that the housing market is not recovering and residential and commercial real estate will be under pressure in 2011 as credit is still frozen within the banks balance sheets.

Click here for Martin’s letter on the Real Estate cycle. (Real estate information starts on page 8 with a chart.)

DOLLAR-neutral-falling

“There is potential for a final low in 2011. A closing below 74.71 will signal that such a potential exists for 2011. Major resistance will stand at 80.80 and a closing below that number will signal that the dollar is still weak for 2011.”

Therefore, since the dollar closed below 80.80, dollar could still be weak in 2011.

On January 21, 2010, Martin has released a letter on the floating currency system and USDollar predictions. Click here (last few pages have specifics). His conclusion, extreme volatility and then a currency crisis in the USDollar in 2015.

Click here for a recent letter in which Martin charts all major fiat currencies.

groovygirl’s comments: there is a currency war continuing into 2011, as all fiat currencies try to debase at once. Expect all currencies to race up and down making everyone ill. Many economists are predicting a much higher dollar next year because of the euro issues. However, groovygirl is a long-term investor and if the dollar isn’t going up to its 2001 levels (which it won’t), it is still in a major downward trend and is still losing purchasing power.

Update: Euro should remain neutral and dollar should fall some.

groovygirl’s conclusion

Nothing much has changed, more of the same in 2011 as the debt crisis is not fixed. Groovygirl will keep a look out for Martin’s next letter to see if there are any updates/modifications to the information presented here.

This information is not to be used to trade short-term and groovygirl reminds you that you invest at your own risk. This is the information that groovygirl is using to prepare her investments for the coming currency crisis. It lets her know how much time she has to prepare and nothing else. The time to trade was four years ago, now it is time to preserve the purchasing power of your savings/capital/retirement.

Side musing: click on the Martin Armstrong tag to the right to view all the groovygirl posts about his letters. There are links to all the original letters under moregroovyresources.

Update March 14, 2011, Martin Armstrong has been released from prison. More information later.

Advertisements

December 30, 2010

John Williams

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 9:41 pm

You pay for the detail but here are the headlines:

– 2010: A Year of Depressed Economic Stagnation
– 2011: A Year of Increasing Economic and Systemic Difficulties
– Gold Outperforms Dow for Seventh Straight Year (2010)

Jesse’s precious metal charts

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:07 am

We are still right on schedule despite the nay-sayers in MSM. Click here.

December 29, 2010

Gerald Celente

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Hyperinflation, Odds 'n ends, Precious metals, Taxes, Unemployment, US Government Debt — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 6:30 pm

Ok, groovygirl LOVED Gerald’s latest interview. That man can rant. Click here.

My new favorite phrase: chicken coop concentration camp.

Also, thought this interview with Ashton in Men’s Fitness was very interesting. Click here. Survivalist attitudes hit mainstream and the younger generation.

The gold bubble?

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:10 am

If you are worried about your gold investment……don’t.

Click here for the reassuring words of Richard Russell.

Gold is not in a bubble, we have at least 5-10 years in this cycle and much more on the upside. We will approach a bubble when the signs at jewelry stores change from “we buy gold” to “we sell gold”.

Groovygirl was getting so discouraged by the lack of movement in gold the last 20 days, but reading that NYT article, I am revealed. Someone is trying to scare people out of investing in gold and using very weird logic to prove their point. The whole ETF argument was very strange. (There is growing evidence and new lawsuits that the ETFs are holding back the price, not creating a bubble.) All this is very gold (and silver) positive.

Gold is a currency and the wise investors, Soros and China, are buying, not selling that currency. Groovygirl suggests you do the same. You can not even compare this current bull market to the 1970’s, as this cycle is part of a 100-year currency crisis. It is a completely different ball game, not a regular investing cycle for gold and silver.

Gold broke through $1400 and silver through $30 again yesterday.

December 28, 2010

Real Estate Market

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Housing Market, Martin Armstrong, The Banking Crisis — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:46 pm

Groovygirl has been unable to post the last few days.

Just a reminder that Martin Armstrong is correct, we are in a 26-year decline in real estate in this country.

Here is a post from Greg Hunter commenting on the positive real estate spin to be heard everywhere this year-end. I listened to a commenter over the weekend who spent 20 minutes detailing the ailing banks and how they still can not loan out money. But then spent the next 10 minutes telling the audience housing will start to recover in 2011.

Housing will not ever recover because the banking system has collapsed. It doesn’t matter how much money Ben prints, if you can’t get a loan, housing prices will go lower. The only reason that housing prices have not contracted more than 30% is because of government policy and intervention, in addition to one million foreclosures not being realized in the market place yet. When they take away or can not sustain that intervention, the slide will continue. Automatic Earth says it will be 90% decline before it is all over; Martin Armstrong says something similar.

Groovygirl agrees: 90% decline in inflation-adjusted housing prices before 2033. (Cash flow commercial real estate may not have as severe a decline, but it will continue to be heavily impacted by the lack of credit available over the next 23 years.)

Side musing: I have been fooling around with some alternative formulas to assist in determining if one should buy or sell your home vs. rent in the next 20 years. I hope to have something to post in the next few weeks.

December 24, 2010

Another SOS from Martin Armstrong

Filed under: Martin Armstrong — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 6:32 am

Click here for the latest status. The prison is once again refusing medical care. He is now blind in his left eye. Please check with Kris’ website to find out how to help. In the meantime, pray. Martin is very concerned that he will not last until his March 2011 release date as he is now having trouble walking due to the severe staph infection that is still untreated.

Update: Kris says he is doing well.

December 22, 2010

John Williams recent commentary

Filed under: Economic Crisis, US Government Debt — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 6:29 pm

Summary:

– Actual 2010 Annual GAAP Deficit in $5 Trillion Range
– “Uncertain” Impact of Health Care Law Roils the Accounting
– No U.S. Guarantee behind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

You pay for the detail, well worth it. GAAP stands for general accepted accounting principles. If the US Government had to create a balance sheet and income statement in line with the rules that every other corporation by law requires, a $5 trillion deficit would be the result (with John estimating the impact of the new health care law). Government at its finest, if you can’t keep within the law, change it. Creative accounting…..

The US gov is not carrying any Fan-Fred debt on their balance sheet, if they were, the debt would be closer to 529% of GDP. That looks kind of bad, so they are leaving it off. But it is fooling no one. Even with it left off, the gross federal debt is 94% of GDP. A few more percentage points and we are Greece.

The US government can do all the creative accounting it wants to. At some point….cash flow becomes the issue and the game is up.

No exit for the Fed

Filed under: Dollar Crisis, Hyperinflation, Precious metals, The Federal Reserve — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 9:06 am

Click here for part II of the recent interview with Jim Rickards on kingworldnews.com.

Great interview. If you didn’t watch the 2 hour presentation I suggested with Jim Rickards, listen to this (it’s shorter). He covers the same main points without all the detail.

Groovygirl has a few comments:

  • There is no exit for the Federal Reserve and a reverse from the coming currency collapse.
  • Jim explains why the rising stock market is not happening in real terms. If we have hyperinflation, stock market prices will rise in nominal terms, not real terms.
  • Jim is not one for timing, but agrees with John Williams that the currency collapse could happen as early as 6 months, but will happen before Ben finishes his term, or 3 years.
  • We will probably have a combination of deflation and hyperinflation, in what order is still to be determined. Gold and silver is a good investment for a deflation and inflation.
  • Jim says gold is a currency, a measure of the decreasing fiat currencies.
  • As gg has said before, the initial inflation will look good, as if we are growing, but it will soon turn ugly.

Make sure you have an exit.

December 21, 2010

Is the tide changing to inflation?

The coming inflation. Higher interest on Treasuries has everyone talking.

Robin Griffiths talks to Eric King on kingworldnews.com about London’s markets, inflation, and other issues.

Part one, click here.

Part two, click here.

Possible triggers for excessive inflation and then a hyperinflationary event.

Collapse in US Treasuries (no foreign buyer and no money to purchase own debt or even pay interest on existing debt) and thus US sovereign default.

China changes its currency peg to dollar (and other policies), returning Ben’s massive money printing to the US economy from China’s economy.

Hyperinflation in the US will be a complete currency collapse and loss of confidence in the fiat currency of the United States (the US Dollar). Hyperinflation, having inflation in its name, is deceiving. It is a loss of confidence in the currency as a store of value and exchange of trade, usually based on sovereign debt default.

A consequence of the hyperinflation process is excessive inflation in prices and massive deflation in debt. The massive inflation usually happens just before the country’s debt formally defaults and only lasts a few months to a year prior to that event.

The United States will never formally admit it is defaulting on its debt. It will devalue the dollar or create a completely new currency to replace it, but the results will be the same.

Older Posts »

Blog at WordPress.com.