Click here for the updated post regarding Martin Armstrong’s 2010 predictions and see how well he did!
Click here for Martin Armstrong’s 2012 predictions.
Actually, Martin Armstrong hasn’t made any predictions for 2011. But he has mentioned some market perimeters in his letters of 2010. Statements in quotes are directly from Martin Armstrong’s letters.
Update January 5, 2011: Martin Armstrong’s latest letter, just received, dated December 22, 2010, has some updates to the info below. Click here for the full letter, market info is on page 7. Updates below are in blue.
Here we go.
“When we look ahead to 2011, the resistance will stand at $12,500-$12,900 level followed by $13,340. The primary support begins as high as $10,608 level assuming we close above that level. (Which we have at $11,577.) This should be a very important pivot area even into 2012. Above the market, we will have this $11,800-$11,935 as critical pivotal resistance also for the next two years into 2012. Well below the market, we have the $7,400-$7,290 that will also be the major pivot support for the next two years.”
“The big turning point will be the June of 2011. If the DOW retests support precisely to the day, then we should see a very strong bull market thereafter going into the high for the top of the next 8.6 year wave in 2015.75.”
groovygirl’s comments: A high into 2015 could be inflation or dollar debasement, not actual real return on investment.
Update: Dow support at 9400. A buy signal required a close above 11927, which we did not get. But since it was close, it is a continuing bullish signal (or neutral) for the near term.
“Looking into the future, it does appear that 2015 is going to be a YEARLY PANIC CYCLE with massive huge volatility into 2016.”
groovygirl’s comments: A panic cycle doesn’t necessary mean a crash. It means extreme volatility, uncertainty, and panic. It is groovygirl’s opinion that 2015 is the year that the dollar dies.
“The monthly chart shows a primary channel that stands at $1,400-$1,480 for 2010 and $1,480-$1,660 for 2011. It is this later channel on the monthly level that is likely to present the overhead resistance.”
“Looking ahead the main support lies at $1,030-$1,047 level. This will be the pivot support throughout 2011. This suggests that the broader long-term trend on a near-term basis will remain bullish as long as gold stays above this level for 2011.”
Gold is what investors buy when they are not confident in the economic climate/government policies. We have seen that type of buying in 2010, it will continue in 2011.
Martin sees the possibility for $5,000 gold by 2015. If that is the case, gold could rise in 2011 on its way to that number. But remember, expect volatility in the gold market, do not day-trade gold.
groovygirl’s comments: we are ending the year sort of in-between Martin’s channels ($1,421.60). Groovygirl is going to go with higher gold in 2011 trading within Martin’s upper channel prediction or between $1480-$1660. Silver has done wonderfully in 2010, ending the year at $30.91.
Update: Silver is bullish. Gold could retest support at some point this year, but will be at $5,000 by 2015.
Same prediction as 2010. Martin is calling for a temporary bottom in 2012 and a rise in 2015. (This time line falls right in line with the remaining mortgages from the big bubble that must “reset” between now and 2013.) Then, a slow, very bad decline into 2030. (This time line represents reality hitting the bank balance sheets that finally start effecting housing prices in a very real way.)
This is a 26-year decline in real estate. So this means that the housing market is not recovering and residential and commercial real estate will be under pressure in 2011 as credit is still frozen within the banks balance sheets.
Click here for Martin’s letter on the Real Estate cycle. (Real estate information starts on page 8 with a chart.)
“There is potential for a final low in 2011. A closing below 74.71 will signal that such a potential exists for 2011. Major resistance will stand at 80.80 and a closing below that number will signal that the dollar is still weak for 2011.”
Therefore, since the dollar closed below 80.80, dollar could still be weak in 2011.
On January 21, 2010, Martin has released a letter on the floating currency system and USDollar predictions. Click here (last few pages have specifics). His conclusion, extreme volatility and then a currency crisis in the USDollar in 2015.
Click here for a recent letter in which Martin charts all major fiat currencies.
groovygirl’s comments: there is a currency war continuing into 2011, as all fiat currencies try to debase at once. Expect all currencies to race up and down making everyone ill. Many economists are predicting a much higher dollar next year because of the euro issues. However, groovygirl is a long-term investor and if the dollar isn’t going up to its 2001 levels (which it won’t), it is still in a major downward trend and is still losing purchasing power.
Update: Euro should remain neutral and dollar should fall some.
Nothing much has changed, more of the same in 2011 as the debt crisis is not fixed. Groovygirl will keep a look out for Martin’s next letter to see if there are any updates/modifications to the information presented here.
This information is not to be used to trade short-term and groovygirl reminds you that you invest at your own risk. This is the information that groovygirl is using to prepare her investments for the coming currency crisis. It lets her know how much time she has to prepare and nothing else. The time to trade was four years ago, now it is time to preserve the purchasing power of your savings/capital/retirement.
Side musing: click on the Martin Armstrong tag to the right to view all the groovygirl posts about his letters. There are links to all the original letters under moregroovyresources.
Update March 14, 2011, Martin Armstrong has been released from prison. More information later.