muses of the moment

April 22, 2011

Latest Letter from Martin Armstrong dated April 21, 2011

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Martin Armstrong — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 3:54 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest letter entitled, The Next Wave, dated April 21, 2011 (15 pages). Martin discusses the next wave that begins June 2011 and what it might look like.


  1. Thanks!

    Financial Sense has posted a great interview with Dave Morgan and John Doody –

    Dave Morgan –
    • With silver $46 and gold at $1500, Dave believes silver is a better buy than gold right now.
    • That being said, investors should exercise some caution. Silver is a very thin market and is very volatile.
    • At these levels, don’t load up on silver all at once.
    • Dave recommends dollar cost averaging your silver purchases.
    • Do not chase the market. At some point Dave thinks silver will take a breather.
    • The best values right now are in junk silver because of the lower premiums.

    John Doody –
    • John is a believer in gold, less so in silver. Silver is a derivative of gold. If gold does not go anywhere, silver will definitely not go anywhere.
    • John has some fears that silver may be getting close to some sort of a top here.
    • Don’t put all your investments in silver, that’s crazy. It’s like having all your investments in uranium stocks three years ago.
    • Silver Wheaton is his favorite silver stock.
    • The best action in PM stocks has been in the mid tier and junior miners. The public is still not in this market.
    • What’s driving gold higher? It’s the negative real interest rate environment we are in. Interest rates on savings accounts and bonds are not keeping up with inflation so savers are losing purchasing power. People are flocking to gold (and silver) to preserve purchasing power.
    • The gold market has a long way to go.

    Comment by sw — April 22, 2011 @ 6:50 pm

  2. gg,

    I have gone back through several of Armstrong’s articles to try and make sense of his 8.6 year Economic Confidence Model and the upcoming Turning Point on June 13-14, 2011, especially as it relates to gold –

    From “Are You Ready to Rumble?” (January 5, 2011) –
    • “The Economic Confidence Model is by no means a stock market model, gold, or anything else. It is the global unified frequency and we can correlate the world and begin to see that [it] is the individual markets that align with the model by their own frequencies, that become the greatest receiver of capital concentration. This is why communism and socialism fail. They are working against the natural course of the economy. If everything were evenly distributed, there would be no boom or bust, but there would also be no liberty or progress.”
    • “The entire boom and bust cycle takes place because capital concentrates.”
    • “So what does this coming LOW [2011.45] on the Economic Confidence Model actually mean? We are facing a Turning Point that was as vital as the change in direction we saw in 2007 or back in 2002 when this 8.6 year Wave had begun. … There is no risk of a 1929 collapse to the new lows.”
    • “By the time we complete this next 4.3 years [2011.45 to 2015.75], the world will NOT look the same. The complete political structure will collapse, but not until 2032.95. What the world will look like is hard to say.”

    From “How & When” (March 1, 2011) –
    • “THE BEST OF ALL WORLDS FOR A BULL MARKET shall be for gold to make a low on that day [2011.45]. This will be the best possible signal that the next 4.3 yrs will be very interesting indeed.”
    • “It is the DEBT DEFAULT that is the reason why gold will become exponential. These big type[s] of exponential moves last normally 11 months where markets may explode 3 to 5 times the starting value from the PHASE TRANSITION. Thus, a pause at this time is VERY bullish long term. So do not cheer gold to rally to new highs just yet. Patience will be the key to the big bucks.”
    • “The most important aspect will be if gold can produce a low the week of June 13th. … The most important aspect is to get a LOW rather than a spike high for the former will be the start of an extension whereas the latter may prove to be an exhaustion.”
    • “The price [of gold] is not the big issue. It is the PATTERN that unfolds. We do not want to see an exhaustive PHASE TRANSITION. This may be more likely in silver right now than gold, only due to the fact that silver has always been highly volatile.”
    • “The KEY is to see if GOLD begins to at last line up with the ECM [Economic Confidence Model]. If that indeed takes place, this will signal more than anything else that we are in fact at the threshold of a serious economic event that will change the world over the next 8.6 years.”

    From “The Next Wave” (April 21, 2011) –
    • “This is the final showdown that we face in this next wave of Marxist-Socialism v Liaise Fair Economics. In other words, will the markets force change to prevent the end of the world, or will government just run off a cliff?”
    • “There is no intent to actually balance the budget no less reduce the national debt. Thus, the problem is percolating as we enter this new 8.6 year wave. By the time we reach the end, well we should see the most interesting time separating a fool and his money.”
    • “Once a government intervenes, they are trying to manipulate the markets. That CANNOT be done on a long term basis. … Direct [monetary] intervention appears to prolong the economic upheaval, not shorten it at all.”
    • “Those who are in the KNOW, realize that QE2 has to come to an end. The fear of inflation rising as a byproduct of QE2 is widespread.”
    • “There have been some mind bending shifts in the debt that bought us time and have contributed to pushing the real crisis off until 2016-2017.”
    • “The big breakout in GOLD still does not appear to be now. The PHASE TRANSITION to exceptionally high prices will be in the NEXT WAVE, not the conclusion of this wave.”


    Comment by sw — April 24, 2011 @ 10:23 pm

  3. GG,

    I haven’t read Martin’s work long, so I have a lot of catching up to do.

    I was going through his essay “It’s Just Time” where he mentions (pg 13, para 4) “In the Second Article ‘The Business Cycle and the Future (Part II)’ dated October 10th, 1999 (the one the Government prevented from being published but escaped via former employees)…”.

    I can’t track this one down. Now I’m intrigued. Do you know of any links to it, or could you email me a copy?


    Comment by Lemming — April 25, 2011 @ 11:08 am

  4. Lemming,

    GG has not be able to find that article either. I have only been able to find the Sept. 99 article or Part one of the series you are speaking of, not part two.

    Link to part one and other articles around that time. Oct 99 one is “missing”.

    If readers have access to this Oct 99 article, please link. I was also wondering if they were one in the same and Martin confused the dates when he referenced the article? Probably not since he refers a new date and part II. Feds probably still trolling the internet for any lost copies. Don’t understand why, all he predicted has already happened.


    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — April 25, 2011 @ 12:15 pm

  5. Apparently they were distinct (hence, his “Part II” subtitle). Apparently he was predicting an attack on the U.S. in September or October 2011.

    What a coincidence:

    Comment by Lemming — April 25, 2011 @ 3:16 pm

  6. Lemming,

    Excellent link!! I have read about his Oct 99 letter, but this post is the most information I have seen in one place regarding that “missing” letter. Suggest everyone read that link. More as a “see Martin was right, believe him now” rather than a prediction for the future from here.

    I can certainly see why the Feds wanted that letter shredded and Martin silenced, it basically says the US is screwed for the next 50-100 years beginning in the fall of 2001. Not the best message for investors in 1999, when the stock market was reaching new highs and fears regarding the Y2K were looming.

    It also explains why Martin is vague on geo-political cycles (as it relates to specific dates), but sticks mainly to global economics and general global cycles. Or maybe he needs a full computer access to map the cycles for that specific information.

    Great find!


    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — April 25, 2011 @ 5:15 pm

  7. @sw

    Thanks for posting those digest from his essays.

    Comment by sirfur — April 27, 2011 @ 5:25 pm

  8. Martin Armstrong has released a new article “Nihon Jishin (Japan Earthquakes)” dated April 25, 2011 –

    Comment by sw — April 28, 2011 @ 12:28 am

  9. Good morning GG!

    Martin’s new report is now posted at:


    Comment by Anonymous — April 28, 2011 @ 9:12 am

  10. Good morning GG!

    Martin’s new report is now posted at:


    Comment by Lemming — April 28, 2011 @ 9:13 am

  11. Hey, thanks guys, you are so quick!!!


    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — April 28, 2011 @ 9:24 am

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