muses of the moment

May 31, 2011

Gold and Silver update

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Gold and Silver Investing, Martin Armstrong, Precious metals — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 9:52 am

As we march closer to Martin Armstrong’s turning date on his Economic Confidence Model of June 13-14, 2011, gold seems to be holding above $1500 and silver above $35. Currently at $1536 and $38.

We will wait and see how that date plays out for all markets, including gold and silver.

Richard Russell is urging his subscribers to buy silver again. Click here. He also is suggesting EFT funds of silver, so this is a short term play, which gg doesn’t like. Only buy EFTs for short term trading and only 10% of your precious metals holdings. This is the money you can afford to lose. If you can not afford to lose money, hold your precious metals investments in physical gold and silver in a private vault for the long term. GG  bought some silver coins a couple of weeks ago, but she is waiting for that June 13-14 date to decide to buy more or not.

15 Comments »

  1. Are you ever “amazed” at anything? I rarely am … however the more I study Armstrong’s cycle theory the more I shake my head and sit in bewilderment. Right now I’m sitting and waiting for Martin’s next cycle to hit (June 13/14). Take a step back and look at all of the noise that is happening right now. The set up for a huge economic downturn is there!

    Personally I’d like to sit under Armstrong for a few weeks to better understand his theories. More importantly, how does one profit from them?

    Comment by Mike Mc — June 1, 2011 @ 10:48 am

  2. GG,

    Just noticed that Martin posted his biography at:
    http://www.10sigma.com/files/Martin%20Armstrong%20Biography%20May%202011.pdf

    Again, 10sigma is blocked by the firewall here. Any possibility of you re-posting it?

    Thanks!
    -Lemming

    Comment by Lemming — June 1, 2011 @ 11:19 am

  3. Sorry, it will put me over the limit again.

    Does it block Kris’ site: http://www.scribd.com/kzuur58

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — June 1, 2011 @ 3:15 pm

  4. Alas, scribd & 10sigma are both blocked. Thanks, anyway. I’ll grab it from home tonight.

    Also, I came across Martin’s 3/1/11 report “How & When”:

    http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/armstrongeconomics-how-when-030111.pdf

    Here are some statements of interest:

    (pg. 4, para 7) Martin mentions that gold hitting new highs above $1500 could be a warning of a top in June 2011, with a decline into 2015.75.

    (pg. 5, para 2) Martin mentions that it would require 2 consecutive monthly closes above the primary channel (~1600, chart on pg. 3) to hint at a big phase transition.

    Do you see the 2 statements as a combined prerequisite for a June top, or that the second statement stands alone as a signal for a parabolic phase transition (generally detached from the 6/14/11 beginning of the new wave?

    Also, I noticed that 2011.45 comes out to 2011 plus 164.3625 days (0.45 * 365.25 days). Wouldn’t this be June 15th instead of June 13/14 (164.3625 days – Jan 30 – Feb 28 – Mar 31 – Apr 30 – May 31 = June 14.36, 14 complete days, plus part of the way into the 15th)?

    One more thing Martin mentions in the “How & When” report is that the turns are not necessarily for any particular thing (e.g., gold), but mark the change in trend for the “hot money”, i.e., the next big thing. So, 6/14/11-ish could be a complete gold non-event.

    I’m still trying to get my arms around it all before it’s here.

    -Lemming

    Comment by Lemming — June 1, 2011 @ 4:00 pm

  5. Lemming,

    The date kind of confuses me too, but Martin himself has used the June13-14 date. So gg is going with that. I don’t think gold is topping in June no matter what. And yes, you are correct the Economic Confidence Cycle is a gauge for much more than gold. It is the movement of hot money. This could be an acceleration of the current currency wars. It could be a collapse of the euro or European debt. It could be a collapse of China. It could be another derivative crisis. We don’t know. It could be a rush into the dollar and US Treasuries. But since gold and the dollar have now formally broken their inverse link, gold can go up as the dollar goes up.

    GG doesn’t know how it will be in the short term, June, but she does know what it will be in the long term.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — June 1, 2011 @ 4:17 pm

  6. I just got done reading the entire report. Wow … Armstrong was railroaded like no tomorrow! What he went through was incredible. I can’t begin to imagine how I would feel after having gone through that entire ordeal. Maybe there is some truth to the Banksters running the entire world. It appears that way.

    I wonder whatever happened to the computer program for his theory. It obviously is a VERY POWERFUL tool for anyone who held it.

    With regards to the economics piece of the article, so if the “valley” is in mid-June, what do you and I do? Does it mean get all of your investments to cash? If so, in what? Dollars? Yuan? … I guess I am struggling with HOW to use his model. Thoughts?

    Comment by Mike Mc — June 1, 2011 @ 5:24 pm

  7. Also … I found a way to get in touch with Martin Armstrong and intend on writing him a letter. Any questions that any of you would like for me to ask?

    Comment by Mike Mc — June 1, 2011 @ 5:27 pm

  8. Mike,

    Right now GG is still a long term holder of precious metals and nothing else. You are speaking of the short term.

    Also keep in mind the 51 year cycle and the 309 year cycle in the most recent report End of Time? Part 1. Click here. Page 27.

    Yes, it is a valley, but the larger cycles are gaining volatility and momentum, so there is the possibility that the valley will not be that noticeable in the grand scheme of the crisis. If you look at the dates below the linked chart, we are in the largest spike up in both waves, with approx. 2032 as the end game of these 309 and 51 year waves. Will a 1.5 year valley really make any difference when a 300 year old era is ending and probably pretty violently? GG is focusing on protecting her capital for the time between now and 2032. Debt and fiat currencies are ending the financial markets as we know them and have known them for the last 300 years. Prepare yourself for that shift, do not focus on a 1.5 year valley of an 8.6 year wave.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — June 1, 2011 @ 5:52 pm

  9. Great job, Mike. Any future plans he can share would be nice to know.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — June 1, 2011 @ 5:56 pm

  10. GG,
    I checked the chart on “End of Time? Part 1”, page 27 again. Martin marks the far right column with the heading Pi. I thought his “Pi” was the entire 8.6 years * 365.25 days, or 3141.15 days (Pi * 100). Yet, if this were so, then the “Pi” column should be the end of the 8.6 year cycle, and equal to the “Start” value of the next line up (which the values are not). Instead, the Pi values in the chart are 1.16 years before the beginning of the next 8.6 year cycle. However, this doesn’t seem to even match any of the three alternating waves defined for the 8.6 year cycle in the black box in the diagram above the chart (2.15 years up to first midpoint, 1.075 years down to the first trough, 1.075 years up to peak, 1.075 years down to the second trough, 1.075 years up to second midpoint, and 2.15 years to the end of the cycle.

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but for the current 8.6 year cycle, the 3 alternating waves would map to:

    2002.85 start
    2005.00 (2.15 years) first midpoint
    2006.075 (1.075 years) first trough
    2007.15 (1.075 years) peak
    2008.225 (1.075 years) second trough
    2009.3 (1.075 years) second midpoint
    2011.45 (2.15 years) end of the cycle (6/14/11)

    Also, from whence do the values for the Pi column on pg 27 come?

    -Lemming

    Comment by Lemming — June 2, 2011 @ 8:14 pm

  11. Lemming,

    Martin hasn’t made the formula clear, he has only revealed the numbers. Perhaps part 2 will do into detail. Martin has stated that Pi is the main part of his theory, but there could be other influences (that he has not revealed) that determine start and ending points. He has not been entirely clear on these points in his letters. Martin may not reveal the entire formula, after all it is his proprietary information. I feel lucky that he releases the dates for free to us.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — June 3, 2011 @ 12:22 pm

  12. Gg

    Sorry to ask a dumb question but I’m very new to this. If silver remains at current levels and doesn’t test the lows Marty put in his letter on June 13/14 – i read it as as a sell. I thought he said we’d be in a good upturn if we hit the lows by that date.

    Your thoughts?

    Comment by Anonymous — June 8, 2011 @ 1:57 am

  13. A,

    In Martin’s latest letter, http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Is%20the%20End%20Near%2006-05-2011.pdf, he seems to suggest on page 9-10, that gold (and silver) are not backing off, but building a base for further movement upward regardless of what the USdollar does. He does mention that silver is and will be much more volatile that gold.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — June 8, 2011 @ 6:23 pm

  14. GG,

    OK, so here we are….June 13 and 14 and silver and gold dropping. Can you clarify your understanding of what Mr. Armstrong said would be happening. I read it as a drop in silver to the $23-26 support would be a good thing – which would mean a long-term trend upward. But, what happens if it hovers around $30 or above? I read that as being a sideways move. (Forgive me, I’m still new to this and trying to understand Mr. Armstrong’s writings!)

    Comment by benmark — June 13, 2011 @ 8:53 pm

  15. Benmark,

    The June 13-14, 2011 date doesn’t necessary correspond to a low or high in gold and silver. It is a turning point for the Economic Confidence Model, which is influenced by many global markets. I am going to post a commentary about that turning point.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — June 14, 2011 @ 3:05 pm


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