muses of the moment

October 3, 2011

Update on Martin Armstrong’s Gold Predictions

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Gold and Silver Investing, Martin Armstrong, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:23 am

Update on Martin Armstrong’s latest computer gold predictions:

H/T from Lemming for the latest gold update with last week’s close:

My retake on Martin’s previous gold & DJIA forcasts (sorry about the formatting):

Gold (based upon 9/15 report)
Daily:
Reversal:
Broke major bearish daily reversals at 1644, 1642, 1585, and 1578.
Monday’s close below 1642 signaled that a serious sell-off would follow, but that may have already come in the premarket.
Computer: Still don’t know if the computer took profits on the minor lows of 9/20 or 9/22, on the much lower lows of 9/26, or is still holding a second short position (after closing below 1786.80 on 9.19).
Timing:
Most turning points didn’t pan out, but the call for a turning point yesterday (9/29) did mark the daily close bottom (so far).
The call for higher volatility 9/20 was definitely early, with the real volatility coming Monday, especially in the premarket.

Weekly:
Reversal: We did close below 1730, but haven’t changed trend since 1605 has still held on a weekly close.
Computer: Long from 1592.30, since 1605 has held.
Timing: 9/16 turned out to be flat, followed by a weekly low going into not 9/23 (which would have been Martin’s inversion), but 9/30 (today). If the inversion continues, there should be a major turn (high if inverted?) on 10/07 (next Fridey). Note that this is on a weekly basis, so the turn could be any time next week, but reflected in next Friday’s close).

Monthly:
Reversal:
We closed below 1640, so we are no longer in a strong position on a monthly basis.
The major bearish reversal of 1618 held.
Computer (my decoding of the graphic):
Composite, Trading cycle, and Directional Change peaked (top is in for now?).
Long Term & Alpha Cycle peak in October, Comp-II & Volatility peak in November.
Timing: Low expected in October/November with key high in December/January.
Pattern Recognition: The September close did not break the August high, so longs should not re-enter.

Dow (based upon 8/25 report):
Yearly:
2012 highly volatile & panic cycle
2016, 2017 volatility rises again
2022 another panic cycle due
2013 turning point, followed by 2016
No phase transition for the next few years
Monthly:
Martin had August as a directional change, but the directional change was early, coming in July.
November is a panic cycle
December is an “important target” (bottom?)
January-June 2012 high volatility
July 2012 possible panic cycle
We closed below 11237 in September, so we should retest support (10207, 9914, 8180).
Weekly: closing support is 10304 – Still above this for now.

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1 Comment »

  1. Makes sense that the market retreats to USDs. Thank goodness the American economy is strong. Blech.

    Comment by Lore — October 3, 2011 @ 4:35 pm


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