muses of the moment

February 10, 2012

Jim Sinclair’s and Alf Field’s Prices for Gold

Jim Sinclair has reposted some equations he has used to get a top price in gold. Jim (and his relatives) have been in this business for a long time. He knows what he is talking about. These are some of the prices that groovygirl is using to decide when to sell gold near the top.

Disclaimer: This is what gg is doing. You will have to decide for yourself what to do and when. GG also acknowledges that government policy could influence when, or even if, to sell all gold.

Click here. Complete post reproduced here.

Dear CIGAs,

Here is a review of the why of the gold price when push comes to shove.

Gold always attempts to balance the international balance sheet of the USA as a function of price multiplied by the gold supposedly held.

The subjective mind of the market is the means to the end from the beginning of written history and before gold functioned as a money based standard of value and measure.

Gold’s Role During Periods Of Monetary Stress
March 4, 2009, at 5:18 pm

by Jim Sinclair in the category General Editorial

Dear CIGAs,

Gold’s job is, and will always attempt to during periods of monetary stress, balance the INTERNATIONAL Balance Sheet of the USA.

Putting the Numbers Into The Equation:

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000 ounces of gold = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold.

In the early 70s I put an advertisement in Barrons predicting gold would rise to $900. When it got near that level, I left for 21 years.

I reappeared officially when Forbes published an article on my career December 10th of 2001. Click here to view the Forbes article…

The mathematics behind the $900 number came from the following equation plus reasonable trend estimates on the number going into the future.

You will note the number today fits in nicely with Alf’s high levels.

  • Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
  • Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
  • Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
  • Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
  • Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

I would not have revealed this unless a recognized expert who has a 100% track record such as Alf Fields predicted it first.

I did not wish to yell “fire in the theatre.”

It certainly make the Comex manipulators, who could easily be stopped, look long-term silly today.

Jim

See the following two links as support:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/FDHBFIN.txt

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_gold_reserves
In the past, I believe you have said that the price of gold could reach a level whereby in dollar terms this equation will hold:

Oz’s of Gold Held by US x $ Price of Gold = External Debt

From the above links we find:

Federal Debt held by Foreign Investors = $3,125,000,000,000 (as of 12/31/08)

Official US Gold holdings = 8,133.5 tonnes (or 260,272,000 oz’s)

Putting the #’s into the equation:

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000  = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold

My question is – what is the mechanism or thought process that makes the equation true?

(I guess that I am looking for the why?)

Thank you for your time.
CIGA Rich Gold

Click here for Jim Sinclair’s Golden Angels. These are the prices of support and resistance as we make our way to the top price. We usually take 2-3 steps forward quickly and fall back 1-2 steps and establish a base for the next steps up. It can be slow and frustrating process when you lose sight of the final top. The gold long cycle that started in 1999 usually lasts 15-20 years.

3 Comments »

  1. […] Scroll down the post to Alf Field’s wave ranges: click here. […]

    Pingback by What is Alf Field’s number for gold? « muses of the moment — July 2, 2012 @ 2:38 pm

  2. HI again,

    Just wanted to say thanks for the steady updates and its appreciated. I just want to ask how did you come up with gold bull market usually lasts 15-20 years? I was always told Gold bull markets usually last about 10 years says Jim Rogers? if my memory serves me right…

    Comment by SilverOrGold — July 2, 2012 @ 3:44 pm

  3. Perhaps, I should have clarified. A gold cycle usually lasts 15-20 years from lowest to highest price. But the first few years are just a very slow steady rise or bottom bouncing. The recent low in gold was in 1999, but it took until 2005-2006 for it to double in price. Chart. Most investors would not consider 1999-2006 to be a bull gold market, but the beginning of the gold long cycle which ends in a gold bull market.

    gg tends to interchange 1999 and 2001 as the start of the long cycle. However, this is not absolutely correct. 2001 is the start of the winter season of the Long Wave Cycle. It happens that gold/silver is a good investment during the winter cycle and the long gold cycle technically started in 1999. They run tandem in this debt collapse/winter cycle, but they are really two different long cycles. The “bull” part of the gold cycle will be around the same time (or a reaction to) the serious debt collapse of the winter cycle. 2008 was warm up for the main show, which Martin says is in 2015. So the key years are 2015-2017 for major disruption and gold to accelerate.

    The Elliott Wave Theory covers the whole cycle, not just the bull part.

    This is why gg likes Martin Armstrong’s call for a high in gold by 2017. But he calls it at $5000. (Martin did have the top in 2015, but moved it to 2017 when he got his computer back.) 2015 is now Martin’s date for global sovereign debt crisis.

    gg likes Martin’s timing and Alf’s price 🙂 But time will tell.

    Hope that helps.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — July 2, 2012 @ 4:04 pm


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