muses of the moment

June 20, 2012

Latest Blog post from Martin Armstrong

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, John Williams shadowstats, Martin Armstrong — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:47 am

Click here.

Computer model still says:

We have run the model updating the Forecasting Arrays and NOTHING has changed. The computer still shows AUGUST as a PANIC CYCLE and SEPTEMBER and the big turning point for 2012.

groovygirl says: sounds like what LEAP E/2020, John Williams, Jim Sinclair, and others have been saying too.

Since swing voters usually vote based on their feelings of the last few months-weeks before an election, I wonder how this might affect US elections in the Fall 2012. Should be interesting. Might be able to hide a panic cycle right on top of an election, but Martin’s dates give a good 2 months for things to breakdown too much for even the MSM to ignore.

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9 Comments »

  1. Please define ‘panic’ cycle ( August ), and what he thinks will happen in September. I take it a ‘turning point’ in September is bad. As far as the election is concerned, there’s still the Iranian factor for a nice diversion.

    Comment by Anonymous — June 20, 2012 @ 1:52 pm

  2. Yes, Syria and Iran will provide distraction.

    When Martin says panic or panic cycle, he means volatility and uncertainty in the confidence of markets. That could mean many things, which he doesn’t necessarily detail. A panic in Europe could mean a higher dollar. A plunge in derivatives could mean a fall across all markets and a credit freeze like in 2008. A panic in currency could mean a flight to gold. A panic means investor confidence changes in some way to make capital move a different way than it has in the recent past, creating changes (up and down) in markets.

    Martin has said in the past that he thinks gold will move up the second half of the year. GG suspects that some sort of systemic crisis (like 2007-2008) will happen in August causing market/capital moves/reactions in September. But he doesn’t say anything specific or if it will come out of Europe, Middle East Conflict-War, Britain, Japan, or the US.

    “Bad” is a relative term dependent on which side of the trade you are on.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — June 20, 2012 @ 2:10 pm

  3. If I knew how to “short” it would work out really well!

    Comment by MikePhila — June 20, 2012 @ 2:23 pm

  4. Reads like there will be a Big event in August that will Rock the financial world. Then, the Financial Elite will save the world in September. Time will tell!

    BTW, I’m a long time reader; Keep up the good work!

    Comment by Al — June 20, 2012 @ 4:49 pm

  5. Thanks for reading, Al.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — June 20, 2012 @ 5:08 pm

  6. gg, Thanks for posting all the Martin Armstrong missives. As the Chinese curse tells, “may we live in interesting times”. August/September is shaping up as very interesting.

    Comment by Carl Lieberman — June 22, 2012 @ 2:15 pm

  7. If you have not already heard, Jim Rickards in a June 20 interview on Capital Account mentioned the Fed may act in/around August/September, http://youtu.be/FgngIN7CO1Q?t=4m26s Hmmm…

    Comment by Al — June 22, 2012 @ 6:24 pm

  8. Groovy Girl,
    So glad I found someone to talk shop with regarding martin’s work. I purchased his Dow report this January and it seems as though a big turning point was talked about for September. So far we haven’t seen it. I interpreted it as a high in September which we got but oct seems to be extending those gains in the Dow. The s p and Nasdaq have not exceeded sept highs. I moved to cash at the end of sept anticipating a turn down?!? What is your take??

    Comment by thundergriff — October 8, 2012 @ 10:48 pm

  9. Thundergriff,

    Cool name ­čÖé I agree with you, we are sailing along at this high extended into October. I would guess QEp and the election. And Europe is worse than the US still.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — October 9, 2012 @ 11:05 am


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