muses of the moment

July 2, 2012

What is Alf Field’s number for gold?

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 2:38 pm

Jim Sinclair has been mentioning Alf Field’s number for gold a lot lately.

So, what is it?

Scroll down the post to Alf Field’s wave ranges: click here.

Alf uses the Elliott Wave Theory to come up with five large ranges for gold. There is no time line in Elliott Wave, it is based on when the low and high of a range is reached. However, gold long cycles historically run 15-20 years. We are currently in Wave 3 up. The current estimate of final wave 5 is $10,000.

Update: a request to clarify:

From silverorgold:

HI again,

Just wanted to say thanks for the steady updates and its appreciated. I just want to ask how did you come up with gold bull market usually lasts 15-20 years? I was always told Gold bull markets usually last about 10 years says Jim Rogers? if my memory serves me right…

Groovygirl’s response:

Perhaps, I should have clarified. A gold cycle usually lasts 15-20 years from lowest to highest price. But the first few years are just a very slow steady rise or bottom bouncing. The recent low in gold was in 1999, but it took until 2005-2006 for it to double in price. Chart. Most investors would not consider 1999-2006 to be a bull gold market, but the beginning of the gold long cycle which ends in a gold bull market.

gg tends to interchange 1999 and 2001 as the start of the long cycle. However, this is not absolutely correct. 2001 is the start of the winter season of the Long Wave Cycle. It happens that gold/silver is a good investment during the winter cycle and the long gold cycle technically started in 1999. They run tandem in this debt collapse/winter cycle, but they are really two different long cycles. The “bull” part of the gold cycle will be around the same time (or a reaction to) the serious debt collapse of the winter cycle. 2008 was warm up for the main show, which Martin says is in 2015. So the key years are 2015-2017 for major disruption and gold to accelerate.

The Elliott Wave Theory covers the whole gold cycle, not just the bull part.

This is why gg likes Martin Armstrong’s call for a high in gold by 2017. But he calls it at $5000. (Martin did have the top in 2015, but moved it to 2017 around the time he got his computer back.) 2015 is now Martin’s date for global sovereign debt crisis.

gg likes Martin’s timing and Alf’s price for gold :) But time will tell.

Sorry for any confusion.

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2 Comments »

  1. Hi gg,

    Martin mentioned last week that he would issue a gold update on Saturday. If you got it, would it possible for you to give us a brief summary please?

    thanks,

    firebug

    Comment by Firebug — July 2, 2012 @ 6:45 pm

  2. Ditto here, gg

    Comment by Mark — July 3, 2012 @ 10:28 am


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