muses of the moment

July 9, 2012

Farm Report

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Odds 'n ends — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:09 am

Official Farm Reports always tend to be very optimistic until the actual harvest. One reason is that USDA doesn’t go out and visit first hand every month, so they tend to lean to the conservative side. They do telephone surveys in between visits, which is dependent on the farmer’s outlook (and motives, remember they have a new mortgage every season).

The outlook is terrible. Farmers, industry insiders, everyone is very negative. “My corn is done” is the phrase of the week, and it is the first of July. That is ugly.

Pasture ground is dry/dead as well. Which means farmers will need to feed cattle more grain (or take to the butcher’s now, which many are doing). And since corn is “done”, finishing cattle will be expensive.

The news reports are trying to claim that demand will be down, so the decline in yield may not affect prices as much as suggested. Could be, but gg highly doubts that.

Look for corn, cattle, all Midwest commodities to be expensive the next 6-8 months. (gg heard some estimates of an increase in prices with any corn of 1-2%, this is conservative.) In addition, when crops fail on this type of scale, insurance companies and banks take a hit too.

Update 7-11-12: click here for report via zerohedge.Gov says corn crop is 12% less than forecast. This is very conservative. gg says 30-40%. In addition, some corn may be usable for cattle/feed, but not human food, because of low-growth or dry condition. That still makes all human corn-related food more expensive.

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