muses of the moment

July 12, 2012

Latest Release from Martin Armstrong dated July 9, 2012

Filed under: Hyperinflation, Martin Armstrong, The Banking Crisis, The Financial Crisis, US Government Debt — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:41 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest release entitled Why Property Taxes Will Soar, Why the risk of Civil Unrest is Rising Exponentially, and Why We Will See The Rise of A Third Party dated July 9, 2012.

Martin covers a lot of info.

Click here for 3  new July 11, 2012 blog posts about Scranton’s move to min wage, Barclay’s, and Hyperinflation.

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8 Comments »

  1. Hi Groovy Girl,

    I enjoy reading visiting your site. However, I think your admiration of Martin Armstrong is unwarranted. I’ve noticed that Jim Sinclair has been blasting Armstrong’s gold price prediction. Andrew Hoffman from Miles Franklin is now calling out Armstrong as well.

    http://blog.milesfranklin.com/i-despise-martin-armstrong

    Comment by Joe Bruin — July 12, 2012 @ 1:29 pm

  2. Joe,

    I agree with Jim Sinclair, and he has stated this before. I even have it as a statement on my “about me” page:

    Martin is a master timer.
    Alf is a master at price.

    Just because I post a link to someone/something doesn’t mean I agree with all of it. It means I think it has some valuable information to include in readers’ continued research and monitoring of this debt collapse. If you only look for gold at $10,000, you may miss other signs that confirm a high price at $5000 or $20,000. To understand those signs, you must listen to everyone, even the deflationists.

    Everything is possible. One move from our government or Fed could move us to a deflation or even a hyperinflation (despite what Martin says). One move could take gold out of the investment realm altogether. Do I think that is probable? No. But it is possible. Of course. And if it is not included in my realm of possibly, I will have planed for not. And I would do a complete disservice to readers.

    No one knows what will happen in the future. The best we can do is gather as much information as possible, rank it all in probabilities, and plan from there.

    I also think everyone should get away from dollar price of gold. It is a complete distraction. How much of the next investment cycle(s) will that gold/silver buy you? What is your next investment cycle? What phase of your life will you be in the next 5-10 years? DOW? Corporate bonds? Real estate? Oil? Commodities? BRICS? Start learning now.

    That ratio is much more important for getting the most for your gold investment. And that “price” may not be the ultimate top in gold. A $10,000 price in gold is an investment ratio of the USDollar currency. It is a moving target. And we all understand the danger of currencies moving forward in this debt collapse.

    Start thinking in ratios first, not dollars.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — July 12, 2012 @ 2:06 pm

  3. So basically Andrew Hoffman dispises Armstrong because of what?!? Because of what Jason Hommel wrote with his two “facts”? Hommel’s arguments are assinine.

    “Fact” One:
    “The first fact is that all dollars are a form of paper gold, since they used to be a promise to deliver silver or gold on demand. Today, dollars are a form of defaulted gold bearer bonds that paid zero interest. They are literally a substitute for gold, and can be redeemed for gold at any gold dealer. If all the US debt were to be backed by the US gold hoard, we can see what the value would be. $16 trillion divided by 261 million OZ. = $61,000/OZ. which is not far off the number that Armstrong ridicules.”

    With this argument I can then say that paper dollars are a substitute for horseshit since I can buy horseshit with dollars and use it for fertilizer for my garden (and it does work… but it has to be dried horseshit!). This is a ridiculous argument.

    “Fact” Two:
    An ounce of gold was not worth “a man’s suit” in most of human history, unless you counted it as the most expensive suit possible, such as a suit of armor. The most expensive suits today range from $40,000 to $100,000 to even $1 million.

    The comment he is referring to here is that Armstrong wrote once that one ounce of gold could buy you a suit … I think it was back in the 1920s. He tied that to buying one today for one once of gold (I’m sorry but I get my suits at Joseph A Banks and I’ve never spent more than $500 for a suit!). All it was was an illustration on inflation. That’s it! It’s a silly comparison and it doesn’t mean ANYTHING!

    The point is that Gold is a manipulated market. It will remain manipulated and WILL NEVER go that high as governments won’t allow it to … unless it benefits them! The “real” value of gold will be on the black market where it could REALLY go to $61,000 an oz if people have lost their faith in the fiat currency of the day and want a specific value for their ounce of gold.

    GG … I like your reponse that Armstrong is a master timer and Sinclair is a master at pricing. I can live with that. However I do think Armstrong is much closer to reality than Sinclair. Armstrong has history behind him. What does Sinclair have behind him? 60 years of data from Wall Street? Where now we are living In a HEAVILY MANIPULATED market that is NOT free floating??? I’ll put my money on Armstrong thank you.

    Comment by MikePhila — July 12, 2012 @ 3:40 pm

  4. I find it ironic that guys like Andy Hoffman and Jason Hommel believe that Martin Armstrong has an agenda yet somehow we should trust them because they don’t? I guess that’s because they run a coin shop and “understand” monetary history so well. Oh yeah, while we’re at it, I have some gold bars to sell you…

    I honestly think that they are touting their own agenda, especially when they come up with figures such as ~$60k/oz. So they want a gold standard that fully backs both the currency and the debt? That’s completely asinine. We all know that the debt is not going to be serviceable and we’re going to have to default one way or the other. If you really think about it, the only people who will make a windfall in that situation are those who own gold and gold proxies. Everyone else will basically lose because all assets will be devalued relative to gold. And you can bet China will try to redeem gold with all the Treasury holdings that they have, which will probably then lead to the closure of the gold window again. Also, having a gold standard isn’t a panacea since it doesn’t prevent malinvestments or eliminate the business cycle. It also creates other problems that Martin has mentioned in his writings and interviews.

    If you truly believe in free market economics, then why do we need to fix prices for gold? The market should set the price of gold based on supply and demand just like everything else. The argument is well the gold market is manipulated so we need to go back to the gold standard and fix the price of gold. Putting gold in the hands of government will make them more honest?

    I think Martin’s $5000/oz is conservative. If you take a semi-log weekly chart of gold and extrapolate it out to 2017, the upper part of the channel is around $5000. If 2017 is the high, then it is likely that it will trade several standard deviations higher upon it’s final parabolic move. I think Jim Sinclair/Alf Field’s $12000/oz is possible and if I recall correctly, it will roughly match the size of the monetary base.

    I do think Andy and Jason’s hearts are in the right place but as Martin has said before, they will scare a lot of people away from gold. They seem to be perpetual gold bulls and will never tell you when to sell because they think gold is money and that it should keep pace with monetary inflation… since money supply is always increasing, gold is always undervalued. And if you disagree with one iota of what they say, then you are labeled as a shill for the TPTB and thus you are the enemy.

    There are gold bulls out there that don’t believe we should return to a gold standard. Kyle Bass and Jim Rogers are just a few.

    Comment by Arctic Fox — July 13, 2012 @ 12:33 am

  5. Regarding the whole inflation/deflation debate: It is of my opinion that inflation is pretty much in the cards. Gold at $1500 is telling you that there is going to be inflation down the road. We will see pockets of deleveraging here and there as people are piling into the safety of the US dollar and Treasuries, but I think that will be short lived. I think Martin and Jim are right. The trigger will be the bond market (or what I believe Jim calls “currency cost-push inflation”), but before the general public realizes this, gold (and possibly the equity markets) will have already risen sharply. I think equity markets may rise nominally but will collapse in real terms.

    Yes, in normal circumstances, this is highly deflationary as debts are written off, money supply contracts, and demand for dollars increases. But we are in a sovereign debt crisis. Even a 100% tax on the wealthy is a drop in the bucket and does not even solve the debt problem and we would still be increasing the debt ceiling. The bond bubble will still burst.

    In regards to hyperinflation, I don’t know too much about it, but I kind of agree with Martin here as well. I don’t think US will experience hyperinflation, but possibly high to very high inflation. My reasoning is as follows. Suppose we decide to run the printing presses to print ourselves out of this mess. Capital will start fleeing to other countries to try to escape this. The problem is that the other countries do not have as large of an economy as the US to support the large capital inflows coming in so it will begin to severely affect them. At this point, those countries will probably start printing to devalue their currencies to make them more competitive with the US and to also restrict capital from coming in. This cycle will repeat, but at this point, I think all asset prices will rise and possibly wages as well… whether wages keep up with inflation is another story.

    My two cents.

    Comment by Arctic Fox — July 13, 2012 @ 1:21 am

  6. good posts guys, thanks

    Comment by Firebug — July 13, 2012 @ 7:16 pm

  7. GG,

    Martin’s latest writing is posted at:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2012-2/regulators-who-regulate-nothing/

    -David

    Comment by Lemming — July 16, 2012 @ 12:00 pm

  8. Thanks,

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — July 16, 2012 @ 12:36 pm


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