muses of the moment

July 17, 2012

US Drought

Filed under: Odds 'n ends — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 5:32 pm

groovygirl wanted to comment on the US Drought News. There is a difference between annual rain fall and high temperatures. These are two different cycles. And gg is still not convinced that this extreme weather is a result of global warming. However, she is willing to look at higher temperature and suburban sprawl as a cause.

Rainfall:

Read an article with a graph showing that this current drought is the tenth worse in the last 120 years. groovygirl did her own graph of her local area and this matches right up with that conclusion. So there is a severe drought, like this year or worse, about every 12 years. That’s a regular cycle and not something to be too concerned about. Except that it will cause an increase in food prices for at least the next 6-12 months.

Disclaimer: 2012 year is not yet over, could get worse…..

gg also noticed that the cycles tend to gain frequency (get closer together) after 1945. This falls in line with 1) suburban sprawl and 2) increase in transportation pollution and 3) population growth. No conclusion here, just an observation.

Record high temperatures:

Now this is a fact, cities around the country are experiencing record all time high temperatures.  But cities, because of thermal mass and added humidity from watering of landscapes tend to be 5-10 degrees hotter than surrounding rural areas. All these highs are in major cities with buildings, concrete, air-conditioned buildings, black-top, landscaping, and cars/trucks. So, is the high temperature outbreak really a high or distorted by the extra heat captured by cities?

The high temps still impact the people and systems of the urban city, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that it is really a high as related to global warming.

Zones:

Now one thing that has been clearly effected is the growing zones of the US. In the past 30 years, growing zones (dates of first and last frosts) has changed. This is yet another issue. Frost dates have moved 200 miles north in 30 years. For instance, those in zone 5 in 1970 are now in zone 6. Zones are usually determined by global weather patterns, not record high temps or rainfall.

So, the question is: does the change in zones mean global warming or just part of longer cycle global weather pattern?

It is important to find these things out, so you can plant the best plants and varieties of plants in any given year. If you try and plant a drought-resistant corn when the drought cycle turns down again, your yield could be affected. If you are planting a garden in the city, it is good to know if your highest temp will be 10 degrees higher than the farmer 50 miles outside the city.

Just some of my thoughts and observation, please feel free to comment.

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5 Comments »

  1. gg, it’s very easy to go day after day through hot temperatures and no rain, and begin to wonder if the globalist agw project might be something more than a scam to tax and control the world. However, here in the UK and in Western Europe we have had a terrible summer so far, near constant rain and flooding in May and throughout June, and very low temperatures. I understand the reason is an unusual jet stream circulation, with the jet stream flowing south of the UK when at this time of year it normally lies to the North. Perhaps this global air flow feature is influencing your continent as well, but to the other weather extremes of warm and dry?

    I’ll only credit weather changes to global warming when they form a trend, and one good/bad summer doesn’t make a trend.

    Comment by john east — July 17, 2012 @ 7:26 pm

  2. Essential listening for grrovy weather geeks: Evelyn Browning Garriss taking about massive multi-decade cycles with one of the best, Jim Puplava of Financial Sense: http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2012-0531-1.mp3

    And a link to all her interviews with Jim: http://www.financialsense.com/search/node/Garriss

    Comment by Jeff — July 17, 2012 @ 11:14 pm

  3. The current heat wave was anticipated well in advance (e.g., Browning newsletter Dec. 2011 http://www.browningnewsletter.com/images/pdfupload/decemb2011.pdf ). We’re seeing convergence of cycles / “oscillators” of different duration in historic but predictable transition, with effects complicated and worsened by unusual volcanism, not to mention solar activity and fires. The ash stores heat and changes air currents and water temperature. It makes for very interesting reading, but mainstream media shuns it in favor of the “It’s different this time” narrative because it’s exciting and distracts people from other issues. You wouldn’t believe the garbage we’re being fed in W. Canada about why fish runs are different. Local natives understand because they remember from the past that fish follow cooler water. It’s the same with bird migration and lots of other things. Anyway, we have record cold in Antarctica and W. Canada has had practically no summer. A lot depends where you are relative to the Jet Stream. Remember when thousands died from that European heat wave a few years ago? We’re seeing changes that are unfamiliar to us, but there’s nothing that would justify Gore-style “Global Warming.” But don’t tell that to the Agenda 21 crowd, which follows the model illustrated in the movie Apocalypto: natural phenomena are the result of human sin. You must do penance to save yourself!

    Local farmers aren’t alarmed. They see changes year by year, but aren’t declaring the End Is Near. Putting 40% of the corn crop toward Ethanol is cause for concern…

    Rgds

    Comment by Lore — July 18, 2012 @ 6:06 am

  4. Lore,

    Good link and info.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — July 18, 2012 @ 1:02 pm

  5. Evelyn G has attracted a following! (grin)

    Comment by Lore — July 18, 2012 @ 4:53 pm


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