muses of the moment

July 24, 2012

Apple

Filed under: Odds 'n ends — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 6:47 pm

My thought about new technology is that of¬† the mortgage business back in 2004. There are only so many people in the US that can get a mortgage. Then, they lent money to dead people. But I still said, there are only so many people (dead or alive) in the US. They all can’t have 5 houses. There is an end to this, it can not go on forever. And it ended.

It is the same with Apple, or Microsoft, or any other techie item. There are only so many people that can afford them, want them, and willing to upgrade every time there is a new series. And at 22% real employment rate (higher for the under 30 crowd), that pool of people keeps getting smaller, not larger.

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There is also the problem of infrastructure: bandwidth and its increasing costs. There is a limit there, too.

Until one or all of those limits change, Apple has to stall in its financials. That doesn’t mean it is not a good long-term play.

Side musing: Groovygirl is very interested in Goggle’s super-high speed fiber test cities. If gg were in charge of one of these techie companies, like Google, she would be spending every penny on building infrastructure¬† (and lobbying gov for assistance/loans) and become the AT&T of national bandwidth. Put in the infrastructure, charge the cheapest price, put all other cable and fiber companies out of business, and get income from that infrastructure for the next 50 years.

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Bold the headline, bury the revision on page 12

Filed under: Economic Crisis, John Williams shadowstats — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:25 pm

This is an old newspaper trick for promoting “information”. The government uses this trick liberally with the official stats. That’s why gg never uses official stats for anything besides causal conversation. If you or your broker are making investment decisions based on official stats, you will get it wrong.

gg uses John Williams real stats at shadowstats.com, it is a paid subscription.

Click here.

We were never in a recovery.

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