muses of the moment

August 17, 2012

Martin Armstrong blog dated August 13, 2012

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Martin Armstrong — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:27 am

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post about Understanding Cycles. It’s a short, but good one.


  1. Hi

    There seems to be a problem with the link.


    Comment by Pier Buda — August 17, 2012 @ 4:17 pm

  2. Fixed. Sorry about that.


    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — August 17, 2012 @ 4:43 pm

  3. Speaking of cycles, Lauren Lyster just interviewed Peter Baxter, author of Excerpts:

    “Kondratieff Winters historically feature high volatility, slow to negative growth, de-levering (by consumers, corporations, and governments,) hoarding of cash by banks, asset deflation, and economic depressions due to bursting of unsustainable credit bubbles.”

    (~8min) The transition to winter occurred in early 2000. Each Kondratieff cycle lasts between 15 and 17 years. The bottoming out of this winter cycle should occur in 2016 or 2017. Very difficult times are directly ahead of us.

    Peter mentions that excesses from winter have to be removed before spring arrives. This means that the debt that has built up during this winter cycle (both private and sovereign debt) has to be removed. Peter believes that 20-30% of the debt will be defaulted on which will cause capital markets to collapse.

    (~11:30) This Kondratieff cycle has gone on longer than previous cycles for two reasons. One reason is because of the increased life spans of individuals. The second reason is because of the decisions by governments and central banks to try and prevent the collapse. This has added 6-10 years to the cycle.

    Comment by sw — August 19, 2012 @ 9:06 pm

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