muses of the moment

September 17, 2012

LEAP 2020

Leap 2020 now available. The latest GEAB N67, click here for the free (and pretty detailed) summary. Good summary of Geo-political situation around the globe.

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6 Comments »

  1. Clara and her Great Depression cooking was one of my favorite things on YouTube to watch. I would have loved to have documented my grandparents like that but unfortunately, I just have their lessons taught stored in both heart and mind.

    Now onto GEAB N67:

    “For these reasons, LEAP/E2020 maintains its June 2012 Red Alert and estimates that, by the end of October 2012, the global economy will be sucked into a black hole against a backdrop of world geopolitics heated white-hot. Suffice it to say that the coming weeks will, according to our team, carry the planet away in a hurricane of unprecedented crises and conflicts.”

    I believe what’s going on between China and Japan is much more dangerous than the Israel-Iran issue. The Japanese war atrocities, same say, were more heinous than those in the Jewish holocaust. The nationalism present in both China and Japan revisits this. As Jim Rogers said, “Trade Wars Always Lead to Real War.” See this. [U.S.-China trade war expands into autos, appliances]

    And we have the The Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan any little incident could set off something far reaching which could also provide Israel and Iran to play out their little biblical prophecy game.

    Next up on the world stage of destruction could be India and Pakistan.

    It’s strange reading all of these recent postings by those we find most enlightening—I remember not so long ago, many of these people were optimistic that things would change for the better, that this or that would be implemented. It seems lately, all those who once had bright spots of optimism, are now clearly preparing for the worst and warning that any day, one could wake up and find the world turned upside down.

    Reading Martin Armstrong’s most reading postings, for example, I get the impression his computer model is flashing a bright icon which reads: “THIS SYSTEM WILL SELF DESTRUCT”

    Comment by soleirolia — September 17, 2012 @ 10:36 pm

  2. The tensions between China and Japan are about oil in the China Sea, the “trigger”/cover story/whatever is age-old tensions. GG agrees, the tensions in Asia are far worse for the US than the Middle East. But far worse….a two-front war.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — September 18, 2012 @ 11:09 am

  3. oil ? maybe — thats like saying the us civil war was about slavery…

    the chinese and japanese problems are deep and they hate each other…. (japan makes a lot of the inner parts of the machines that china sells … could bring manufacturing and trade to a halt)

    Comment by madmax — September 18, 2012 @ 8:42 pm

  4. GG, maybe you are right long-term (isn’t that ever true for all predictions and doom-saying?) Speaking in decades, a conflict between China with allies and the US and Japan with allies on the other side is thinkable, although still very unlikely. For the next decade it’s completely unthinkable. China simply does not have the military assets to start a conflict with any hope pf prevailing in it. Even if it did, there is absolutely no interest in such a conflict in Beijing – there is just not sufficient cause for any belligerence. To Beijing, the islands row is a useful distraction from the gazillion internal issues they have but no more. Only a radical change in leadership in Beijing as a result of revolutionary events could change that. Japan/China trade and investment is essential to both countries. To wreck it is to wreck their own welfare. Hence a really serious trade war is as unlikely as a military conflict. Both sides know this very well. Just look for the calmer comments from the people who really call the shots – admittedly hard if you rely on CNN. What you are seeing on the news over there is just noise and folklore. In short, you are wrong about this being more serious than the middle eastern situation.

    Comment by Axel Lieber — September 18, 2012 @ 9:09 pm

  5. Axel,

    When I said it was a more serious situation, I didn’t mean militarily. Of course, China will not engage in all out war with the US any more than anyone else would, but we are not in a military war. We are in a financial war and the global currency that will be used as the trade currency (and therefore be in-demand globally and able to be issued to infinity) is the grand prize. It is about control of the cash flow of the global energy market.

    I also didn’t mean that the Iran crisis is a war situation. It is about preservation of the petro-dollar and military means have a limited impact.

    The new weapons of war are:
    hackers
    computer viruses
    new SWIFT systems
    new trade reserves for different parts of the globe
    new currencies for energy-oil trading
    gold as a part of those new currencies-reserves
    new oil deposits and drilling (China Sea-Arctic)
    Saudi’s declining oil production (and control of what is left)
    Oil drilling technology and processing (and the copying of that information and raw materials to produce that equipment)
    Doing everything possible to disrupt anyone using the USdollar for anything, especially oil
    Control of other raw materials for manufacturing of weapons, software, computers
    who has credit and who has debt

    I don’t know that the US is the top in all of those categories. I also don’t know how long the US can hang onto the top position, except the military one.

    The only military aspect is protecting drilling opportunities and disturbing-protecting shipping routes.

    The fall of the British Empire was written on the wall because they expanded too much and the return on trade could not pay for the protection of the trade. So they printed money (and taxed their nobles-people) to make up the difference. From the time of Queen Victoria to the time British nobles started marrying their daughters to rich Americans in exchange for titles (because they didn’t have any cash) after WWI was a very short time line.

    I may also point out that China was not even on the radar in the 1990’s. They were a backward nation with a lot of people. That is exactly what Britain thought about American during the time of Queen Victoria, a backward nation living in a vast untamed wilderness.

    It can change that fast. And I think it would be foolish not to consider that it can’t change that fast.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — September 19, 2012 @ 11:29 am

  6. Madmax,

    I don’t quite understand why commentors are not acknowledging that China might be doing EXACTLY what the US has done for the past 50 years: use currency to control what all countries on the globe need: oil (energy) and raw materials to build machines to get and process that energy and military equipment and computer system to protect that energy flow. They are in Africa securing what raw materials are left on the planet. They are in the China sea to secure the oil in that area. Their ally, Russia, is in the Arctic securing the last high quality crude on the planet, and their government is setting up an alternative currency trading system to control the flow of all of that.

    It used to be that a large navy, or control of the sea trade, controlled the energy flow. (Shipping has a place, but it is trumped by currency control.) Now, it is currency or the flow of money and the systems that control that money flow (SWIFT) that control the energy.

    Groovygirl thinks that if we move to a global virtual currency, it will then be software and hackers that control the flow of energy. GG thinks that is why China is setting up its own SWIFT system. The SWIFT system is one step below a virtual currency.

    Japan and China tensions are a symptom, not the real issue.

    BTW, gg is not knocking the US’s plan for the last 50 years, it has supported a great empire, but it is unwise to think that it can always work the same way forever. History shows us VERY clearly that all empires ebb and flow in cycles. It is just Asia’s turn again.

    gg

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — September 19, 2012 @ 11:46 am


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