muses of the moment

October 12, 2012

John Williams’ interview on the latest Unemployment rate

Filed under: John Williams shadowstats, Unemployment — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 2:25 pm

So, the unemployment rate is real, but based on revised numbers that the BLS will not publish.

Click here for an excellent interview with shadowstats.com’s John Williams, who publishes the real stats for you!

What few people realize is that the headline unemployment rate is calculated each month using a unique set of seasonal adjustments. The August unemployment rate, which was 8.1%, was calculated using what BLS calls a “concurrent seasonal factor adjustment.” Each month the agency recalculates the series to adjust for regular seasonal patterns tied to the school year or holiday shopping season or whatever is considered relevant. The next month, it does the same thing using another set of seasonal factors. Rather than publish a number that’s consistent with the prior month’s estimate, it recalculates everything, including the previous month, but it doesn’t publish the revised number from the previous month.

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