muses of the moment

July 16, 2013

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated July 13, 2013

Filed under: DOW and S&P500, Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Martin Armstrong — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 9:49 am

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled DOW and the Future dated July 13, 2013.


  1. GG,

    It’s articles like this that wish that we had an on-going board to just discuss the DOW. Here is my question. When 2013.6 hits (August 7th?) will that indicated that the DOW is going to go down? After reading this article, it would appear that I should just let my 401K “ride” it out to 40,000. What are all of your thoughts regarding the ECM and the DOW?

    Comment by MikePhila — July 16, 2013 @ 12:20 pm

  2. MikePhila,

    Martin is a master timer. But his trading ranges are rather wide, so hard to make a decision based on them. I think the riskiest part of your 401k is not that it will or will not go to 40,000, but who has control of your money in that account and how much of your over all wealth is in that account and if it reaches 40,000, can you get your money out. You should always know when you are getting out of an investment before you get in. What was your intention/goal when you started the 401k and the specific investments therein? It sounds as if you are a wave thrown back and forth by possible predictions and market moves. Go back to the beginning and know your long-term goals. That might help you make a decision in this case.

    A 40,000 DOW depends on capital flight: flight from Europe/Euro, flight from bonds. Countries can make laws overnight to slow or stop capital flight, if necessary. However, they usually do that after the big money is out. And don’t forget about the next debt collapse that will be a bail in…

    Those are gg’s thoughts,

    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — July 17, 2013 @ 8:57 am

  3. and good ones at that … my 401K goals are that I want to be able to comfortably live when I retire. I have seen individual’s 401K plans lose as much as 40% in past market explosions. I DO NOT want to be on that side of it. Right now I am all in with US stocks and have been doing very well. As little in to bonds as possible. When things go bad I want to put my 401k in to CASH. Then jump back in after the 10-20% drop(s). That’s my goal. Thoughts?

    Comment by MikePhila — July 17, 2013 @ 1:04 pm

  4. Do you have a number in mind that will let you live comfortably? If you stay in your current investments, how high will stocks have to go? How much of a gain do you need see? Is 40,000 that goal?


    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — July 17, 2013 @ 3:44 pm

  5. Don’t know to be very honest. I have @350,000K in it. Comfortable for me would be $1 mil. I have 15 years of work before I retire … not sure if it’s going to happen.

    Comment by MikePhila — July 17, 2013 @ 4:07 pm

  6. MikePhila,

    Focus on the goal and how the possible scenarios, worst case and best case, can get you there. Then decide what to do. If you do not know the final goal, you can never develop a plan to get there, let alone achieve the goal. As far as the vehicle to get to that number, pick an investment(s) and know it inside and out. It sounds as if you have chosen stocks, immerse yourself in an education in stocks. You can make money in any investment class at any time in the market, buying long, shorting, etc. But you must first know the investment thoroughly. If you are half-hardly educating yourself, you are guaranteed to lose your money.


    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — July 18, 2013 @ 10:32 am

  7. Thanks gg. I follow your blog because I trust what you say and love the content. I have a plan outside of the 401K that I am pursuing. Hopefully it will get me to my goal! ­čÖé

    Comment by MikePhila — July 18, 2013 @ 12:30 pm

  8. MikePhila,

    I am very glad to hear you have a plan outside the 401k. That is a good idea, especially for worst-case scenarios. Thanks for commenting and reading. Your questions and insights are very valuable.


    Comment by totallygroovygirlfriday — July 19, 2013 @ 9:54 am

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