muses of the moment

February 17, 2014

John Williams from shadowstats.com

Filed under: John Williams shadowstats — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 3:29 pm

John Williams has released a few new updates. Here are the free summaries.

– As With December, January’s Small Headline Jobs Gain Was Statistically Insignificant
–  Annual Upside Bias in the Birth-Death Model Increased by 140,000, Despite Last Year’s 119,000 Overstatement of Jobs Growth
-Spurious Revisions Used to Spike Payroll Employment Levels Renewed
Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments and New Population Controls Make
Comparisons of Monthly Unemployment Detail Meaningless
– January Unemployment: 6.6% (U.3), 12.7% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)

– Retail Sales Plunge Reflected Consumer Liquidity Issues More than Bad Weather
– Pattern of Collapsing Economic Activity Seen in Revisions
– Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments Already Skewing Jobs Revisions

– Downside Restatement of Recent Economic Activity Continues
– January Production Drop Was More than Bad-Weather Effects
– First-Quarter 2014 GDP Contraction and Downside Revision to Third-Quarter GDP Growth Increasingly Are Likely

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