muses of the moment

August 29, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated August 28, 2014

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Martin Armstrong — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:14 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Cycle Inversion and Staging Ground for 2032 dated August 28, 2014.

Continuing gg’s post from earlier today, Martin talks about the 2032 peak.

In gg’s opinion, as an investor, you must take into consideration when you will need money and when taxes will be the lowest for your investment. Sometimes hard to predict. If you are 70, waiting to exit a market until 2032, may not be practical for you. You may need cash well before then. Always understand when you want to ideally exit an investment. That will help determine what investment to buy and when you should get in. Even in a down global economy, there are markets that are going up. GG is using Martin’s cycle as a guide to what might happen in the global economy at a certain time. This helps time markets and when to exit based on her personal capital needs. Helps her know when to look closely at the market.

Advertisements

Short-term gold bottom?

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals, Real Estate Investments — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:59 am

Jesse over at Cafe Americain suggests that the short-term gold bottom is in. gg agrees. Click here. Please read the explanation of the chart in the link to understand what it is saying.

Just to review where gg is coming from: after Martin Armstrong’s October 2015 turning point, long-term high for gold is 2017-2018. However, Martin is reserving a possible high well into 2023. gg is not disagreeing with Martin, but gold tends to run in 15-20 year cycles (those are complete cycles from low to high to return to “normal” pricing). Our current cycle began in 2000. It is possible that 2032 is the high of another cycle.

Click here for a normal bubble cycle chart. Bubble charts are for any market, as all markets go thru these cycles. If you look at the long-term chart here from Trader Dan. (It’s not up-t0-date, but you all know the price trend the last 18 months.) Notice that we are still holding to the 50% retracement (around $1300) of the new $1900 high. This is absolutely normal in the long-term cycle.

Side musing: Stocks tend to move opposite of gold in an inflation-adjusted chart of each market. That is happening right now. DOW in inflation-adjusted numbers is up and gold in inflation-adjusted number is down. That short-term trend started in 2012 (not 2009 as the stock market talking heads would have you believe). Up until that point, gold was still the better buy accounting for inflation. groovygirl always runs the calculations for inflation and taxes in any investment. If you don’t, you will not know if you are making a profit or not. But even in light of this short-term dip, gg bought more gold, she did not sell. She is in this for the long-term.

In this make-fast-money now, especially for our seniors on fixed incomes, long-term cycles can be frustrating. If you want fast money, do not buy gold. If you want to hold your purchasing power and protect a portion of your capital or estate against a complete breakdown in the global economy, buy some physical gold and hold long-term.

groovygirl’s only question is when will the high come and should she sell in 2015, 2017, 2018, or 2032. gg is looking very closely at the change in the USdollar that is surely coming. That will impact investment trends and profits. It is very possible that a change in the USdollar will happen in the 2017-2018 time frame requiring a quick fix that doesn’t hold. And another more long-term fix will be required 2032, effecting gold prices each time.

Side musing: sorry gg has been inconsistent in posting. She is working on another real estate deal. Not much happening in the gold market, just building for that next long-term move to the high in the midst of the chaos of the collapsing world economy and all the reactions to it. Heaven forbid someone should be proactive 🙂

August 9, 2014

Immigration

Filed under: Odds 'n ends — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 2:44 am

groovygirl has been keeping a close eye on the immigration debate. She is convinced that this will be a factor in moving a major shift on all levels in the US, REGARDLESS of what is done. This issue, since it has not been addressed, has huge economic, cultural, and political impacts. gg also sees potential states rights confrontations and a thousand possible unintended consequences whatever the policy(s) moving forward.

gg also thinks this issue has the potential to split political parties as Martin Armstrong has warned will happen in the next few elections.

Click here for a post from zerohedge on the issue.

August 7, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated August 5, 2014

Filed under: Martin Armstrong, Odds 'n ends — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:05 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled The Shift from West to East dated August 5, 2014. This is a good one.

Longwave Group

Filed under: DOW and S&P500, Stock Market — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:39 pm

groovygirl gets these periodic free letters from the Longwave Group (Ian Gordon). This latest one was kind of interesting. He talks about a recent key point reversal in the US stock markets.

Click here.

August 1, 2014

John Williams with shadowstats.com

Filed under: Inflation, John Williams shadowstats — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 7:45 am

Once again, John Williams with shadowstats.com gives us the real stats. Here is his free summary:

No. 646: Second-Quarter 2014 GDP, GDP Benchmark Revisions, Household Income

• Second-Quarter GDP Surge Not Credible, Significant Downside Revisions Remain in Offing
• Actual Economic Activity Remains in Serious Trouble
• Historical GDP Revised Lower Where Better Data Were Available and Revised Higher Where Better Numbers Were Not

I am sure we will have a “revision” after the November elections for 2nd and 3rd quarter GDP.

Blog at WordPress.com.