muses of the moment

December 5, 2010

beware of “human over-reaction to adverse events”

Click here for an excellent post from The Automatic Earth. As you plan for the future and react to the present crisis, this is an excellent post to come back to…..focus.

Even if the government and those around you are suggesting short-term solutions that cost more in the long term (in every way), you do not have to do that personally.

These are wise words from Stoneleigh:

Up to now, where those who have lost out have not been a critical mass, their plight has been essentially invisible to a news system written by the winners, but that will change as the numbers affected increase dramatically.

The implication for discount rates is that they are about to shoot up from a level that is already too high, and that therefore people will collectively cease to value the future. This state is not conducive to rational or intelligent decision-making or the weighing up of alternative courses of action. It is a psychological environment favouring crisis management and simplistic knee-jerk reactions. Sadly, people in this collective state of mind are more subject to simplistic answers proposed by populist manipulators, and are all too prone to vote against their own best interests.

What we need to do is to take actions now to reduce our exposure, and the exposure of as many people as possible, to the risks inherent in the system as it has developed over at least several decades, if not longer. This is of course much easier said than done. Following in the advice in The Automatic Earth lifeboat primeron reducing debt, holding cash, gaining some control over the essentials of one’s own existence and, above all, building community – is the best way of taking enough mental pressure off in the future to enable people to hang on to an appreciation for the longer term.

July 21, 2010

Update on short-term gold

Filed under: Dollar Crisis, Financial Talking Heads, Gold and Silver Investing, Long term investing, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 3:02 am

Groovygirl is a long-term investing kind of girl. She looks at the short-term news only to confirm that the long-term trend is in tact and on time.

It is.

According to Alf Field, we are in the Major 3 wave up from $700 to $3,500. Click here for more detail. (Groovygirl is buying on dips. $3,500 needs to be in sight, before she would consider selling anything. Even then, it could be just a time to hold. We will see.)

But for those short-term viewers:

From Jesse at Cafe Americain: click here.

From Tyler Durden at zerohedge: click here.

From Harvey Organ: There is physical metal delivery pressure and in the middle of the month, very strange, click here.

The investment funds (example: GLD, SLV), investment banks (GS and MS), bullion banks (ScotiaBank), and the COMEX all have a vested interest in keeping the average investor in the dark about the true value of physical gold and silver, while they make their money running this obvious paper gold and silver Ponzi scheme. They have the full blessing of global governments because a suppressed value in gold and silver lets their own fiat currency Ponzi schemes look better.

The financial industry, the government, and of course, big media, all work together, each for their own benefit, to make owning physical gold and silver look like a bad investment, stupid, and barbaric. Or they recommend it and then slam the price down.

The interesting thing is that if you owned that “barbaric” investment you would have doubled your money in 4 years and quadrupled it in 10 years. It has proved to be the best return on any investment class during the last decade including currencies. You will never hear those facts from any one of the parties listed above.

The truth will not seek you out in these unethical times, you will have to go searching for this valuable commodity and hold on tightly.

June 10, 2010

Martin Armstrong’s latest letter dated June 3, 2010

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Financial Talking Heads, Martin Armstrong, Odds 'n ends, The Federal Reserve — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 8:39 pm

For immediate release: Martin Armstrong’s latest letter dated June 3, 2010, entitled The Paradox of Regulation God vs. Man. (6 pages)

Click here.

Very powerful letter from Martin. Definitely read this. No specific market predictions in this letter.

May 23, 2010

Latest letter from Martin Armstrong May 20, 2010

Click here (new link) for the latest letter dated May 20, 2010 from Martin Armstrong entitled Immoral, not Illegal, A Crisis in Ethics Repeating the 1930’s (15 pages).

Short summary: Mr. Armstrong talks about separating commercial banks and investment banks. That would be a start. This is a crisis in public confidence. Martin says that the banking model we use will always result in a crisis because of its very nature. Banks take deposits in the short-term and lend long-term to earn money on the difference between those two numbers. This works well until an economic downturn that happens every 8 years or so, when long-term depositors want their money back and it’s not there. Therefore….liquidity crisis. Constant booms and busts.

April 24, 2010

For those freaking out about the gold price

The chart show that gold is right on track. Do not panic. Do not be distracted by the daily noise from the F-TV talking heads. The short-term manipulators take gold down at 6 am every morning, but the price is moving exactly as it should long-term. China understands this and is taking advantage of it.

If inflation continues to increase, so will this chart. Gold has far to go.

Side musing: one explanation for the up/down in gold price the last few weeks. It’s all about the Euro debt crisis. Click here.

Seven banks in Illinois taken down this week. This is a controlled banking implosion. At some point, it will not be controlled. The government can not continue forever to print and borrow money to buyout this crisis. Be prepared.

April 9, 2010

The Shell Game

and that’s exactly what this global debt game is.

A very good piece by Chris Martenson via zerohedge.com. Click here.

Scroll down to take a look at that TNX chart!

Some quotes from Chris’s post:

If, or when, these deceptions are revealed, I predict that we will experience a pretty significant market dislocation that will take the form of a chaotic bond market, with yields that rapidly gyrate higher, currency perturbations that will shake markets, and an extended banking holiday, with capital controls imposed until a nightmarish derivative mess is unsorted.

Groovygirl asks: are you prepared? Groovygirl believes that Chris’s “hunches” will occur as early as 2011 and as late as 2015 based on Martin Armstrong and John Williams timing suggestions from recent letters and posts.

So I am prepared for two possible scenarios:  1) a sudden change in the markets, and the alternative, 2) no change at all for ten years or more.  The first requires active financial and physical planning, while the second requires developing the right sort of mental patience.  It is a tricky psychological balancing act, to be ready for anything and nothing at the same time.  I imagine that being on patrol in Baghdad during hostilities was sort of like this, where nothing happened for 99% of the time, but then IEDs made the other 1% of the time very, very interesting.

What will happen next?  Nobody knows.  My advice remains the same as always:  Stay tuned to the world’s markets and happenings for clues about what’s unfolding, but make the necessary preparations to increase your resilience to whatever might happen next. 

Concerning because sharp breaks almost always happen during periods of complacency, when everybody seems to be looking the other way.  In short, when everyone is complacent, I get concerned, and when people get concerned, I try to remain calm. 

March 12, 2010

And the accounting tricks go on….

Zerohedge (.) com has a great article about the latest accounting trick, Repo 105.

Click here.

And as Tyler says…other banks are doing this same thing right now. Nothing is fixed and the cover-up continues. Investor beware.

This is a game of musical chairs, but there appears to be over 300 million investors and 2 chairs (and Goldman Sachs is always sitting in one of them). Investor beware. Invest in tangible assets. Yes, I know the stock market is going up, groovygirl says…investor beware. Click here.

Here is the chartoftheday for the PE ratios of stocks. The PE ratios say that stocks are cheap. Are they? The above accounting tricks and with the gov allowing legal accounting fudging, how can we trust PE ratios (the earnings-E part)? We can’t.

This is an example of long time trusted stats, that can not be trusted anymore (until the accounting gimicks are stopped). But investors (and investment managers) are still working off this system. Investor beware.

Side musing: FDIC takes down a bank on a non-Friday? Click here.

February 23, 2010

Confidence Model

Groovygirl hasn’t been writing much this week, well, because there is nothing new going on.

The economic crisis born from too much global debt continues to implode. Gold and silver are holding their own. Governments are like deer caught in the headlights of an on-coming car. Do not rely on them to avert any coming crisis.

But groovygirl has noticed a definite change in the confidence level. Martin Armstrong charts the confidence in the economy in his Economic Confidence Model. Click here. Scroll down for the updated version. You will notice that we are on a downward slide (in confidence) from spring of 2009 to spring of 2011.

More and more think tanks and professionals (like Warren Buffet’s long time business partner) are becoming more and more vocal in their pessimism.

Check out all the popular pessimism on goldsilver.com today.

I suspect that Financial-TV talking heads will not be too far behind as the fall 2010 elections really start rolling. People are pissed…and someone will want to “articulate their anger for them” (to coin a phrase from Network). I am sure all the F-TV pundits will line up to do just that. This will signal a shift in confidence that will gain momentum as the year drags on.

However, for you, dear readers, you already know that the dollar is doomed, the debt implosion will continue racing around the world, and governments don’t have a back-up plan. It will not end well.

So, you have prepared, and protected your savings from the devaluing of the USDollar. Gold and silver are your insurance. But do not trade, expect violent swings as people rush to whatever they think is safety at any given moment.

We are experiencing a complete paradigm shift in every aspect of country, government, culture, and currency.

As Chris Martenson says, “the next twenty years will be completely unlike the last twenty years”.

We are in the middle of a 20-year bull market in precious metals and commodities. We are on our way to a currency crisis in the USDollar as well as other global currencies. Governments will continue to “print money” until it doesn’t work and creates a hyperinflationary depression.

By the end 2010, the US will be in full fear mode. Keep working your plan as others figure out what you already know. Things are not returning to normal, they have changed for good, and most people are not prepared mentally or financially for this change.

Do not be distracted by the anger of those around you. Anger is phase, right after denial. Too much time in anger mode will drain your energy, better spent preparing for the coming currency crisis.

The currency crisis is called for 2015 by Martin Armstrong (Aaron pointed out that Martin has modified the year to 2012, please see the comment section for more detail) and John Williams. But the time leading up to that break will not be easy, lots of mini-disasters before then. Each disaster will make it harder to prepare. So start now, do not wait.

February 18, 2010

The Us/Them Mentality

An interesting headline caught my eye today…

The Economic Elite Have Engineered an Extraordinary Coup, Threatening the Very Existence of the Middle Class

From alternet.org. Click here.

The us/them mentality will drain your energy to get through this crisis. This current crisis and its coming aftermath, will be severe, but it is just a cycle in history. Blaming others will not help and certainly will never change what is happening right now. It’s too late. The wave is in motion headed for the beach.

Get out of the way.

This is the winter season of the K-wave cycle. According to Martin Armstrong it is comparable to the fall of Rome. But it is a cycle in history, just the same, only the actors’ names have changed.

So, did the elite take full advantage of this cycle? Did the banks’ greed implode the very system they fed off of….yes. Did the middle class buy the crap of F-TV and gov hook, line, and sinker…yes. Has this same thing happen repeated times in history….yes.

Now you know. Cycles come to an end. Fiat currencies crash. Governments can not create infinite amount of debt.

Since you now know this, don’t blame, prepare. If history has a lesson here, it is Rome will not be there to catch you as you fall. You and your family are on your own as Rome burns.

The Roman government raised taxes so high to cover all their debt for their huge army, that the people raised up against the government or just left. The Roman government continued raising taxes and trying to keep the status quo right up to the time that the barbarians invaded the City. It will be the same now. You don’t have to be a psyche to figure out exactly how the powers that be will react in the continuing crisis phase.

Protect the purchasing power of your savings. Blaming is wasted energy. This is a cycle. There are advantages and disadvantages to each cycle, but you need to make sure you are working the plan for the current cycle and not the last one.

January 29, 2010

The Crime of the Century

Groovygirl has been following the questioning of the AIG bailout. Several items have come to my attention that you will never see from the talking heads on TV. These facts prove that the bailout of AIG is criminal, and the entire bank bailout should be earnestly questioned in detail.

Zerohedge.com got the “Schedule A” from AIG (the one they have been trying not to release because it affects national security or something). This is a legal tax document required by law showing the list of beneficiaries of the AIG bailout of 100% on the dollar. You have no doubt heard that Timmy demanded 100%, when the investors on this list were willing to take less. Criminal. Timmy should be fired immediately. Click here. And here. Zerohedge.com has been on top of this story since day one. Excellent job!! Most of the investment and legal jargon will be alien to you, read it anyway. You will get the point.

Then there is an excellent ppt presentation of “follow the bailout money”. Apparently the gov committee assigned to do just what is in this presentation are not done yet. Not expected to be done until end of 2010. Here it is for your review by non-gov. “It takes a Pillage” is easy to follow. You will never see the truth from Big Media, but you can here.

We all know we got screwed as taxpayers. Now here is the proof. The very sad part is the Media did not question the bailouts at the time OR report now when the proof is all over the internet. Since there is no pressure from Big Media and Congress seems to be dysfunctional at best, justice for the crime of the century will never come.

In this environment you will have to hunt for and discern the truth for yourself. You will also be responsible for protecting your investments. Get the education and tools needed to do these two things for yourself and your family.

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