muses of the moment

August 7, 2014

Longwave Group

Filed under: DOW and S&P500, Stock Market — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:39 pm

groovygirl gets these periodic free letters from the Longwave Group (Ian Gordon). This latest one was kind of interesting. He talks about a recent key point reversal in the US stock markets.

Click here.

July 22, 2014

Inside Job

Filed under: 401K and IRAs, DOW and S&P500, Stock Market, The Banking Crisis — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:33 am

groovygirl thought this article from Pam Martens was very interesting.

Click here.

From the link above:

Starting with the week of May 26, 2014, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) began releasing weekly dark pool trading data to the public. That sliver of sunlight shows that some of the corporations with the largest share buyback programs are also among the heaviest traded stocks within the dark pools.

With banking declining, banks must make money anyway that can. This “recession” is hard on everyone, only bankers don’t go to jail for illegal activity to support their families, in gg’s humble and completely uneducated opinion ūüôā

Take the case of Apple Computer. According to FINRA data, in the five weekly periods of May 26 through June 23, dark pools traded over 103.6 million shares of Apple stock. The heaviest week was the week of June 9, 2014 when 39.9 million shares traded in dark pools. Goldman Sachs was responsible for trading 2,444,350 shares of Apple that week in its dark pool, Sigma-X, and has been in the top tier of dark pools trading Apple stock in all subsequent weeks reported by FINRA.

So what happens when corporations need cash to meet operation costs? Will they all put their stock up for sale at the same time? And who is going to buy that stock? Goldman and sell to muppets? I think the muppets are either out of cash or pissed off or both.

This can not end well.

 

June 23, 2014

Interesting question

Filed under: Dollar Crisis, DOW and S&P500, Stock Market — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:50 pm

Charles Hugh Smith brings up an interesting question.  Who will boomers and their pension/401k plans sell their stocks to?

Click here.

It is possible that other countries and emerging markets might or maybe too big to fail banks with free Fed money, but this scenario suggests some sort of long-term decline at some point under even the best of circumstances.

gg is hoping that emerging markets will be over their contraction in 5-7 years and be able to pick up the selling slack when a large population of aging Americans are selling for cash. Otherwise it could get ugly.

Same thing is/will happen in housing. Seniors need the cash equity out of their home and there are limited buyers. gg has thought for a long time that this pressure, with the increased debt burden/low-income on young people will contribute to the long-term decline in real estate in the US and other first world economies.

This is a long-term pressure on a long term cycle tied to generational demographics.

February 18, 2014

Art Cashin on King World News

Filed under: 401K and IRAs, Stock Market — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 5:55 am

Click here for a good interview with Art Cashin on King World News (about 16 min.)

January 21, 2014

Missing Reporter

Filed under: Credit Derivatives, Odds 'n ends, Peak Energy, Stock Market — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:10 am

In the informational age, missing reporters and/or their computers¬†always make gg’s¬†ears perk up. It usually means that they ran into a major truth. gg¬†is always interested in the real truth. Here is a US reporter who was writing about the US oil glut that has not been seen for 11 days. Click here.¬†Read the article carefully to see the truth and what might happen in the near future, barring extended¬†market manipulation.

Updates: gg¬†just heard a radio interview in which it was suggested that¬†the oil/energy glut, thus over-production/lowered prices, was going to/is creating more investment from businesses, jobs, and economic growth. That is not the truth, it is either dumb or a distraction. The truth is hidden in the¬†link above. What is the truth?¬† Why would lower energy prices not cause an increase in economic growth, but something else? Who might be upset about this? Should prices actually be lower, but aren’t? Think, search for the real. Perhaps Pam’s full article will help your search. Click here.

Here are some other articles to help with your research. These articles are not about Shell, it is about how oil companies (and all commodity companies) do business, make profits, and structure their debt. Who owns that debt? Through what investment vehicles do they own that debt? Click here and here and here.  Does OPEC make money on oil production/sales or other investment vehicles?

Questions. Questions. Questions lead to more questions.

And of course, here, gg did the underlining:

Alongside the pull-back from some western banks, another emerging advantage for the oil majors is the capability to offer more competitive pricing. This is both through their ability to embed derivatives in the physical supply deals they will have with firms in such industries as shipping and also through the fact they aren’t required to add on a credit valuation cost.

‚ÄúWhat has happened over the past couple of years is that banks have been pricing¬†in CVA [credit valuation adjustment] for counterparty risk. Oil majors typically do not price in CVA, which in some cases makes them more competitive,‚ÄĚ says Standard Chartered’s Koh.

Richard Ng, a Singapore-based venture capitalist with Kind Resources and former co-head of global commodities marketing at UBS, points out that for corporates, embedding derivatives in physical deals avoids mark-to-market losses.

‚Äú[Having] embedded derivatives contracts with physical trading houses or oil majors essentially solves having to recognise mark-to-market losses on derivative contracts,‚ÄĚ he says.

Dodd-Frank has moved commodity derivatives away from US banks and transparency. Derivative contracts (especially losses) may not appear on oil company balance sheets. It also makes market manipulation of the underlying asset very inviting to those with that influence. 

This post is¬†in gg’s humble opinion, she is not an energy market expert by any means.

December 18, 2013

Latest Blog Posts from Martin Armstrong dated December 15-18, 2013

Martin has some very good posts the last few days. Groovygirl highlighted a few of them here.

gg says: the common theme is the long-term cycle is in progress, but the final end is still in the future. There are up and downs between now and the end as the process unfolds. In every shift there is an ebb and flow. People/governments cling to what is the past/stable before realizing that the future requires something new/usually opposite of the past.

Click here for Time and Price dated December 15, 2013.

It is more WHEN the price is reached rather than the express actual number. BOTH have to be achieved.

Click here for the Yuan and the Death of the Dollar. Good one! dated December 15, 2013.

True, eventually all systems fail. The United States will break apart
and will crumble as a political union. That is certain. However, the
question is WHEN? Trust me. Not on this economic wave. That will manifest ONLY when the debt goes. That will happen ONLY
after the financial implosion unfolds in Europe and Japan. Then this
economic disease will spread like a contagion to the US economy.

Click here for How Lows Are Made dated December 15, 2013.

Click here for US Prohibts Production of Physical Bitcoins dated December 17, 2013.

I have stated before that the government was allowing Bitcoin to open
the door for the coming virtual digital money. Of course, they will shut
down Bitcoin once it has served its purpose.

Click here for the DOW To Be or Not To Be-Blowing Bubbles or Hot Air? dated December 11, 2013. Martin talks about international capital flows. This is a good one.

gg says: one thing groovygirl wanted to highlight is his statement that one reason that pension funds are fleeing from bonds to stocks because they must have a 8% return to survive. This statement reinforces the fact that pension funds are dead. Do not count on them. They will either not be able to get 8% plus or they will be forced into too many risky investments that give 8% or more and implode when those investments blow-up in the continuing debt collapse and reset.

Click here for Cyclic Inversions-Criticial to Understand dated December 18, 2013. Very important post!

Once the high was in place., the cycle INVERTS¬†whereas what use to produce highs flips and produces lows. The target dates NEVER¬†change ‚Äď only what is produced!

gg says: Martin uses an old weekly silver chart as an example of the lesson at a time of the longer term inversion. But it is important to keep in mind that the inversion happens over all charts: daily, weekly, monthly, yearly. It is important to know what time chart you are looking at. A daily chart inversion may or may not affect your investment. A monthly or yearly one may have more of an impact. It depends on how long your personal investment cycle is. Groovygirl is a long-term investor, so she will usually point out and refer to longer term inversions and impact event.

December 3, 2013

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated December 2, 2013

Filed under: DOW and S&P500, Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Martin Armstrong, Stock Market — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 9:55 am

Click here for Martin Armstrong entitled Why is the DOW Vulnerable to a Correction dated December 2, 2013.

From the post:

The main Global Correlation Model is starting to warn that the market is getting a bit tired on the upside and the breakout is only in nominal terms just yet.

….

We will address the reversals and year-end numbers in the upcoming
special report. We indeed face interesting times as everyone is baffled
about the future and the whole Flight to Quality¬†has been distorted when that ‚Äúquality‚ÄĚ being government debt is the very source of our turmoil.

November 22, 2013

Some interesting educational items

Filed under: 401K and IRAs, DOW and S&P500, Stock Market — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:50 pm

Groovygirl gets newsletters from Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad) in her email box occasionally. One came in today that had an article explaining stock indexes that some readers may not be aware of. Click here and scroll down to page 3 to the article Equality for Everyone?

I know that people either love or hate Rich Dad. He usually has some good info and groovygirl¬†likes him because he teaches you to think,¬†not what to do. Groovygirl¬†learned more about accounting from his first book Rich Dad Poor Dad than from any accounting class she took. And every¬†accredited¬†investor that she has sat down with, they all say the same types of things about investing that Rich Dad says, just not necessarily¬†in the same way. So, if you don’t have access to a successful accredited investor as a mentor, Rich Dad’s books are a good starting point.

There was also a very good interview with Jim Rogers on Rich Dad’s radio show (about 40 minutes long). The link is in the newsletter link above.

November 21, 2013

John Williams from shadowstats.com

Free summary from John Williams at shadowstats.com. He has the real stats.

– Watch Out for the Dollar
– October Annual Inflation: 1.0% (CPI-U), 0.8% (CPI-W), 8.5% (ShadowStats)
– Retail Sales Gain Was Statistically Insignificant; Recession Signal Remained Intact
Official Real Earnings Declined in October
– Existing Home Sales Declined for the Month; Annual Growth Slowed Markedly

Groovygirl¬†looks at the spread between the real inflation rate, right now running around 8.5%, and the rates you can earn at the bank. Those are currently running better than recent months around 2%. Whoo-hoo! This gives a good idea about how far behind real people are falling. Someone living off of investments alone would have a hard time finding a consistant 8.5% return after taxes.¬†(Maybe real estate cash flow) If you compare a business/company’s annual gain and the real inflation stats, it will give you a quick look to see if they are falling behind too. Business annual reports are more complicated, but it directs you to which businesses to investigate further. You can do this with tax revenue for states, counties, and cities, etc. If they are not bringing in at least 8.5% more, then they have to cut somewhere at some point.

Easy money and credit have hidden these truths since the dollar began to really fall in 2001. Once liquidity evaporates for good, it is all over. We have experienced liquidity evaporating twice in the last decade and numerous examples from other countries in the last 5 years. We know what happens. It should not be a surprise when it happens again and you have no excuse not to be prepared.

Chart of the Day is an updated inflation-adjusted DOW chart. We keep hitting that resistance level. Click here.

Groovygirl¬†knows that everyone is excited about the stock market and “new highs”, but this chart of the day¬†shows:

  • A clear winter cycle since around 2000 or the dot.com bust
  • A firm resistance level at around $15,000 (inflation-adjusted)
  • After taxes, you may¬†have not made back your losses, even if you entered the market perfectly timed. Taxes are very important to consider in these times.
  • There were major swings in the¬†stock market during the Great Depression as well. This is not unusual.
  • We are really in the middle of the long-term trading channel. We could go up, we could go down…..

The recent drops in this winter cycle were driven¬†by bubbles popping and terrorist events. (dot.com pop, 9-11, and housing bubble pop) During a winter cycle, the market is very sensitive to outside forces. Confidence is easily and quickly lost and then regained. This is why buy and hold is not a good long-term strategy during a winter cycle. Groovygirl is not saying that you can’t make money during a winter cycle, it just isn’t the best time for a buy and hold pattern.

October 1, 2013

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated September 30, 2013

Filed under: 401K and IRAs, Bailout Nation, Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Martin Armstrong, Stock Market — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 6:43 am

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled DEBT-PENSION CRISIS- Fuel behind a Stock Rally dated September 30, 2013. Very Important read!

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