muses of the moment

August 10, 2011

Jim Sinclair’s new angels

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — Tags: , — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:58 am

Click here for Jim Sinclair’s new angels for the gold price during this 20-year gold bull market.

Jim calculates these prices or “angels” by a method from his father Bert Seligman, who worked with Jesse Livermore. These “angels” are prices where there is a fight in the gold price level before moving up to the next “angel”. Similar to support and resistance levels, but do not use these as trading channels. These prices tell us where the next fight will be and that we are not in a gold bubble.

Right now, $1764 is a key level. It is a level where sentiment about gold will change in the mind of investors and the bull market will accelerate. In addition, movements in gold will become more and more volatile on a daily basis.

Jim doesn’t have a timeline for these “angels”, nor does he have a final number. The timeline and final high is dependent on the global debt crisis and how much fiat money gets printing trying to fight that crisis.

Jim has mentioned Martin Armstrong’s and Alf Fields’ $10,000 gold high. He has also mentioned Martin Armstrong’s 2015 date as a date for a crisis in the dollar.

Jim also looks at the devaluing of the dollar, with .72 being a key support level.

So, will things get worse? Yes, at the very least from now until 2015. As we get closer to 2015, we will have a better idea if that is the exact time of the currency crisis. If the crisis will occur and then we will experience growth again. Or if the crisis will occur, but we will have an extended period of no/little growth. Those possibilities will determine how low the dollar will go and how high gold/silver will go and when those things might happen.

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June 8, 2011

Jim Sinclair announces a possible gold price of $12,500

Click here for Jim’s interview with Eric King where Jim agrees with Martin Armstrong’s gold price of $12,500.

Martin Armstrong has mentioned two high gold prices in his letters: $5000 by 2016 and a higher gold price later at some point of $12,500. These prices would result from a complete collapse in the global monetary system.

According to John Williams, the real inflation-adjusted gold price should be around $4,500 right now. So, in a regular gold bull market, gold should meet this price. But since we are in a global currency crisis whose only current remedy is money printing, gold could go much, much higher.

Alf Fields suggests a $10,000 price.

Groovygirl is using this range of $5000 to $13,000 as the two possible end points for gold. Therefore, at $1500, gold is cheap. Once we get closer to $5,000, we can look at the global monetary situation and determine if $12,500 is more realistic.

And here is a full explanation of Jim’s formula to get to that price range of $12,500 (from his website).

May 12, 2011

Latest letter from Martin Armstrong dated May 10, 2011

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest letter dated May 10, 2011, entitled So You Thought the Sovereign Debt Crisis Was Over?, (9 pages).

A good read. Mr. Armstrong pretty must sums it up on page 7, “The cliff is in sight and we have no brakes.”

The global sovereign debt crisis that governments will try to print their way out of is a fight between public vs. private long-term wave. The shift from public assets to private assets. This shift is clearing being played out in the Greek riots. This sovereign debt crisis is the greatest threat to real wealth.

Last page has a long-term gold chart that starts in 1970.

Long term: support level is $1227.90 in 2011

$1239.30 in 2012

technical resistance  is $2000.90 in 2011

$2037.20 in 2012

technical support is $1374.10 in 2011

$1410.50 in 2012

Groovygirl says: this falls right in line with Alf Field’s current trading range of the 3rd wave up in this long-term bull market: $700-$3500. Judging from Mr. Armstrong’s long-term resistance and support numbers, we will not leave this 3rd wave in the next 2 years.

Mr. Armstrong does mention that with the sovereign debt crisis, anything is possible and technical trading channels could change.

May 9, 2011

What groovygirl is doing in gold and silver long term

She wants to keep the purchasing power of her savings during the coming global currency collapse.

Yesterday, gg talked about her short-term process for 2011. Click here for the post.

So, what long-term prices is totallygroovygirl expecting for precious metals in the long-term?

Groovygirl follows four precious metals analysts (in order):

Alf Fields

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $700 low); this is the one we are in right now;
Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

John Williams of shadowstats.com

Currently, the real inflation-adjusted price of gold should be around $4,500. This price changes as the real inflation rate changes. It is a moving target, and realistically could reach Alf Fields’ $10,000 target.

Martin Armstrong

$5,000, could be higher.

Jim Sinclair

He has moved his initial prediction of $1,650 made in 2003 to $5,000. He states it could be much higher.

Groovygirl is looking to return to at least the 16:1 ratio for silver to gold. That would put silver at $625 with gold at $10,000. These highs probably will not occur at the same time but within days/months of each other.

Side musing: if all sovereign nations continue to print money to infinity, the gold price could move well past $10,000. It is anyone’s guess.

Now, gg just needs to confirm the timing. Using Martin’s Economic Confidence Model, gg is looking at 2015 to evaluate the gold price. Ultimate highs could be closer to 2018-2020.

She is working to accumulate all her long-term, physical gold and silver positions by 2012-2013. If by 2015, it looks like the final high will be closer to 2020, she may buy more physical gold and silver (if it is actually available at a reasonable premium).

With laws, taxes, and government intervention the way it is currently, gg is looking to have at least 20% of her net worth in physical gold and silver held in several private company vaults. If she were younger, she would hold more, if  older, less, but always at least 10%. If laws or taxes should change, the percentage might change.

July 21, 2010

Update on short-term gold

Filed under: Dollar Crisis, Financial Talking Heads, Gold and Silver Investing, Long term investing, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 3:02 am

Groovygirl is a long-term investing kind of girl. She looks at the short-term news only to confirm that the long-term trend is in tact and on time.

It is.

According to Alf Field, we are in the Major 3 wave up from $700 to $3,500. Click here for more detail. (Groovygirl is buying on dips. $3,500 needs to be in sight, before she would consider selling anything. Even then, it could be just a time to hold. We will see.)

But for those short-term viewers:

From Jesse at Cafe Americain: click here.

From Tyler Durden at zerohedge: click here.

From Harvey Organ: There is physical metal delivery pressure and in the middle of the month, very strange, click here.

The investment funds (example: GLD, SLV), investment banks (GS and MS), bullion banks (ScotiaBank), and the COMEX all have a vested interest in keeping the average investor in the dark about the true value of physical gold and silver, while they make their money running this obvious paper gold and silver Ponzi scheme. They have the full blessing of global governments because a suppressed value in gold and silver lets their own fiat currency Ponzi schemes look better.

The financial industry, the government, and of course, big media, all work together, each for their own benefit, to make owning physical gold and silver look like a bad investment, stupid, and barbaric. Or they recommend it and then slam the price down.

The interesting thing is that if you owned that “barbaric” investment you would have doubled your money in 4 years and quadrupled it in 10 years. It has proved to be the best return on any investment class during the last decade including currencies. You will never hear those facts from any one of the parties listed above.

The truth will not seek you out in these unethical times, you will have to go searching for this valuable commodity and hold on tightly.

March 23, 2010

For those in panic about the gold price

Filed under: Economic Crisis, Gold and Silver Investing, Long term investing, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:37 am

Here is a little reminder from Alf Fields from his November 2008 publication.

Click here.

As Alf said in 2008, we are in wave 3 up (of a 20-year gold bull market) and going to at least $3500 before the next correction. So, is it a time to buy, yes. Is it a time to sell, no. Could we correct some, of course…in the short-term. Groovygirl believes this is NOT the time for short-term trading of gold.

Groovygirl recommends not selling until wave 5, but you should not be selling regardless until $3500. Alf Fields recommends holding quietly onto your gold. Groovygirl agrees.

There are lots of different pressures on the gold price right now because there is the undercurrent of a global currency crisis that is happening right now.

These numbers are subject to change…higher…as we move along in this global currency crisis.

December 29, 2009

Alf Fields’ Gold Predictions

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Hyperinflation, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:04 am

As you may already know, Alf Fields has decided to stop writing his gold predictions. This is his last one from November 2008. Groovygirl is using this as a capital preservation tool, not a trading tool, until I see something different. We are currently in major wave 3 up.

Click here  for the link.

A snippet:

Assuming that the $699 low on 23 October 2008 turns out to be the actual low point of the correction, and that remains to be proven, then we can conclude that we have seen the low point for Major TWO. That will allow us to update my original “back of the envelope” template to much higher levels, as follows:

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

Once again, you can pick your number for the gain in FIVE and multiply it by $2,500. The numbers become astronomical and can really only be possible in a runaway inflationary environment, something which many thinking people are suggesting has become a possibility as a result of the actions taken during the current crisis.

Groovygirl must warn you, do not day-trade gold. Buy on dips and hold for the coming currency collapse. If you are going to trade during a particular wave period, use only 1/4 of your invested allotment, no margin, and be willing to lose it. This is not the time to trade, it is the time to preserve the purchasing power of your savings.

Click here  for Alf Fields’ latest commentary on hyperinflation.

$10,000 may seem like an incredible price. Groovygirl is taking it one step at a time.

First, Jim Sinclair is calling for a high of $1650, and claiming he could be wrong (or it will go much higher). I agree, $1650 is in the bag at this point. So, if you buy at $1100 now, at $1650, a gain is guaranteed.

Then Martin Armstrong is calling for $5000. So far, Martin has been on target, so I would say $5,000 is a real possibility. That’s a huge gain when buying at $1100.

But $10,000 means that the USDollar will be worthless. This is a real possibility. The FED (and every other central bank) is still printing money with no end in sight. Some sort of currency collapse is coming.

If you can not afford gold, buy silver. It may actually do better anyway.

December 17, 2009

Recent drop in gold

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Martin Armstrong, Precious metals, The Dollar Crisis — Tags: , — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:07 am

Recent drop in gold is not a trend breaker yet. We will watch this closely.

Click here  for Jim Sinclair’s thoughts on the recent correction (with a nice graph).

Here is another note from Jim Sinclair, the man who went through the 1970’s gold market:

Dear BT,

The popular delusion and madness of the crowd has driven markets forever.

Two weeks ago you could hardly find a gold bear.

Gold traded at $1224.10 in the cash market. Central banks on both sides were shocked.

Those that wanted to buy felt lost, and those that wanted to print more paper felt challenged.

MOPE came in from all corners.

China, talking their market interest yelled, “Gold Bubble.”

The classic MOPE was an article stating that since central banks had been buying gold, it has to be the top. That takes the cake in terms of whimsical imagination without historical precedent.

From a man that has seen what a gold top looks like, this is not it.

All of a sudden the black hats were chasing the gold hats. You should know how many times in the 70s, I watched as even the nearest and dearest went into totally disorganized retreat mode. I yelled charge, and looked behind me to see no one whatsoever.

It can get damn lonely out here. However, those that are right rarely have company.

How many times have we seen this in the gold market? What has it meant so far? It means nothing more now.

Gold is going through $1224 and $1278 on its way to $1650, which will occur on or before January 14th, 2011.

Armstrong disagrees, as he sees $5000 by June of 2011.

Alf’s prices are without time estimates.

Regards,
Jim

Side musing: Alf Fields has called for $10,000 at last check. If these men are calling for gold to at least double (if not quadruple) in less than 14 months, do you really think we will not see another leg down in the global financial collapse in 2010? Nothing is fixed. Expect more of the same.

May 27, 2009

Martin Armstrong-Alf Fields-Gold Predictions

Jim Sinclair gave a summary of the next move in gold and the USDollar. He agrees with Martin Armstrong and Alf Fields and others. Check out my blog roll for his website link. The bolded items are my comments.
Jim says that the bull gold market will be Alf Fields’ price in Martin Armstrong’s timing.
 
The punch line: gold will begin its third wave up in June. This wave will top at least $3500. Bolded items (and red updates) are groovygirl’s comments.
From Jim Sinclair Predictions:
1. Gold reacts as currency support for the dollar enters mid June to a slow decline (that is the official definition of a strong dollar policy, really). Gold is now trading as a secure currency, not a commodity. This is a completely different type of investor/investment.
2. End of 2nd week going into the beginning of the 3rd week of June Gold launches towards $1000 and this time through the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders formation. Update August 24, 2009…we are still going sideways, battling deflation, trend to change soon. Wait for it….wait for it. Update October 13, 2009…looks like gold is moving up along the trend line again. We will have to fall below $800 to break this trend upward. Conversely, the dollar index is moving downward, it will have to move above .86 to break the downward trendline.
3. Gold rises to $1224 where it hesitates. Update Dec 9, 2009: we are experiencing the hesitation, not a break in trend. Don’t panic.
4. The OTC derivative market takes on the dollar as short sellers into dollar support.
5. This OTC derivative currency short position builds.
6. It is the US dollar where Armstrong will get his WATERFALL. Martin has predicted a waterfall effect. This means a quick plunge, never to return. The US Dollar is soon to be toast. Get out NOW. This drop will be so quick, that you will not have time to move investments out of the dollar when it is clear you should do so. Especially, if all your assets are dominated in dollars. Update Dec. 9, 2009: John Williams of shadowstats.com is saying the same thing from another perspective when he predicts a hyperinflationary depression by 2015.
7. The main selling (for the dollar) takes place when Israel makes a major miscalculation. The timing for Israel is 2011. Update: October 13, 2009….we are experiencing extreme pressure on the dollar right now, but not a waterfall..yet until closer to 2015.
8. Hyperinflation is always and will continue to be a currency event. The government will continue to print money and a hyperinflationary depression will occur in the US. Timing for the start is 2011-2012. Update Dec. 9, 2009 John Williams is saying a start of the major decline in the dollar in 2012, but the extreme hyperinflationary period will be closer to 2015.
9. Hyperinflation will be a product of the upcoming massive OTC derivative short dollar raid.
Should I be correct in the gold price action going into late June, it will fit Armstrong’s criterion for a move to $5000.
Alf’s work permits an over-run of the gold price to $3500 in the major 3rd phase, indicating overruns into the major 5th. Translation….Martin is predicting a major move in gold to $5000. If he is correct, Alf Fields’ prediction of $10,000 per ounce before the bull market is over (during the 5th wave) is completely conceivable. Update October 13, 2009…we are firmly in gold’s 3rd wave and would have to break below $800 to break this trend. Update Dec. 9, 2009: continued confirmation of Martin’s timing (2015) and Alf’s numbers ($10,000).
Do not think you will make a huge ROI on gold and silver. Gold and silver will be so ridiculously high, because the dollar will be crushed, never to return to its value of  today. It will throw all the global fiat currencies of the world on edge.
 
The rules of investing are totally different from they have been the last 25 years. This is a world-wide currency crisis, a systematic breakdown. Your focus is to PRESERVE capital, especially if your investments are in USDollars. I can not stress this point enough.

April 18, 2009

Alf Fields on Gold Wave 3

As Alf Fields predicted last fall, $699 was the low. So, we are definately in the 3rd Elliott wave up to $3,500. It could be a few years before we get there. Time will tell. I publish this quote, so the large dips in gold don’t bother you. We would have to dip BELOW $700 to break this wave. (Update: November 13, 2009, we are still in wave 3, we now must fall below $730 to break the trend.) No margin, use dips to buy in, never sell. This is your insurance for currency crisis, deflation and hyperinflation. It covers everything. If you want to sell a portion of your gold during wave 4, that’s OK, but do not miss holding the majority of your savings in gold/silver during wave 5. Wave 5 will be quick in action.  If you think you might miss it, hold gold through the wave 4 decline. Wave 5 is the currency crisis, super-hyperinflation period.

Assuming that the $699 low on 23 October 2008 turns out to be the actual low point of the correction, and that remains to be proven, then we can conclude that we have seen the low point for Major TWO. That will allow us to update my original “back of the envelope” template to much higher levels, as follows:

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

 

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

 

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

 

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

 

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

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