muses of the moment

March 20, 2014

John Williams with shadowstats.com

Filed under: Inflation, John Williams shadowstats — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 2:27 pm

Here is the free summary from John Williams:

- Strongest Recession Signal Since Eve of the Economic Collapse
- Real Retail Sales on Track for 4% Annualized Plunge in First-Quarter 2014
- Housing Starts on Track for 34% Annualized Plunge in First-Quarter 2014
- For Second Month, Unadjusted Monthly 0.4% CPI Inflation Was Squashed to 0.1% by Seasonal Adjustments
- February Annual Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 1.0% (CPI-W), 8.8% (ShadowStats)
- Real Earnings Down 0.2% in February

March 8, 2014

The real stats from John Williams

Filed under: John Williams shadowstats, Unemployment — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:17 pm

Here is the free summary from John Williams with shadowstats.com:

- Payroll Jobs Increased by 175,000, but the Number Employed Rose by 42,000; Neither February 2014 Statistic Was Meaningful
- Deliberate Misreporting Showed December Payrolls up by 84,000, Where 67,000 Was the Consistent Number
- February Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 12.6% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
- January Trade Data Hint at Troubled First-Quarter GDP
Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 3.5% in February

February 21, 2014

John Williams with shadowstats.com

John Williams has his latest real stats out. You pay for the detail, well worth the money, but here is the punch line:

- Strongest Signal for a Recession Since September 2007
- January Real Retail Sales Activity Plunged by 0.6% for the Month
- Unadjusted Monthly January 0.4% CPI Inflation Squashed to 0.1% by Seasonal Adjustments
- January Annual Inflation: 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)

John uses the original inflation index formula, before gov started jacking with it. Did your wages/income go up by 9% to meet the real inflation index? groovygirl’s didn’t. Who needs hyperinflation when wages are down or flat or zero because you are unemployed coupled with a 9% real inflation rate and climbing? In the main street household, that can feel like hyperinflation pretty quick. At the very least, it means less consumer spending, saving, and debt for big purchases like houses, cars, and student loans.

February 17, 2014

John Williams from shadowstats.com

Filed under: John Williams shadowstats — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 3:29 pm

John Williams has released a few new updates. Here are the free summaries.

- As With December, January’s Small Headline Jobs Gain Was Statistically Insignificant
-  Annual Upside Bias in the Birth-Death Model Increased by 140,000, Despite Last Year’s 119,000 Overstatement of Jobs Growth
-Spurious Revisions Used to Spike Payroll Employment Levels Renewed
Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments and New Population Controls Make
Comparisons of Monthly Unemployment Detail Meaningless
- January Unemployment: 6.6% (U.3), 12.7% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)

- Retail Sales Plunge Reflected Consumer Liquidity Issues More than Bad Weather
- Pattern of Collapsing Economic Activity Seen in Revisions
- Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments Already Skewing Jobs Revisions

- Downside Restatement of Recent Economic Activity Continues
- January Production Drop Was More than Bad-Weather Effects
- First-Quarter 2014 GDP Contraction and Downside Revision to Third-Quarter GDP Growth Increasingly Are Likely

January 31, 2014

January 18, 2014

John Williams with shadowstats.com

Summary of John Williams’ real stats:

- Inflation Picks Up as the Economy Slows Down
- December Annual Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.5% (CPI-W), 9.1% (ShadowStats)
- Real Retail Sales Declined by 0.1% in Industry’s Flagship Month of December; Slowing Annual Growth Signaled Recession
- Real Weekly Earnings Declined in December

gg says: quite a disconnect between inflation formula of today and inflation formula of the pre-1980′s. If you don’t like the number, just change the formula! Did your wages and/or investments go up 9% after taxes?

January 11, 2014

John Williams with Shadowstats.com

John has released several notes on recent data. Here are some bullet summaries for free. He also released a Hyperinflation Update. He still calls for hyperinflation to begin in 2014. This conflicts with Martin’s thoughts on the dollar continuing to move up (or not decline) as capital flees the Euro and emerging markets.

- Extremely Difficult Circumstances in the Year Ahead: Confluence of Economic and Systemic Crises Should Intensify
-With Global Confidence in Dollar Rattled by Uncontrollable Fiscal and Monetary Excesses, U.S. Government and the Federal       Reserve Have Limited Options to Address Panics
- Heavy Selling of U.S. Dollar Remains Likely Proximal Trigger for Inflation Pick-Up
- Developing Hyperinflation Would Push Ongoing Recession into Deep Depression
- Physical Gold Remains Primary Hedge for Preserving Wealth and Assets

One thing to note. John’s definition of a hyperinflation is an increase in prices/expenses and a decrease in debt availability. There are other factors that can affect prices here in the US. Things that are produced here: US taxes, state taxes, rising health care costs. Things that are imported from emerging markets: rising manufacturing costs in China due to taxes, currency exchange rates, and labor demands. In reviewing gg’s utility cost breakdown for 2013, she noticed that the cost of energy/water was down or stable, but the taxes, admin, and service costs were up again. This has been a trend since she started tracking it. Infrastructure costs, labor costs, and taxes have a major impact on basic living costs. These things don’t have anything to do with the dollar chart. groovygirls says: if your basic living expenses go up 2-3% per year, but your wages are flat or go down, it feels like an inflationary depression to you, personally. Martin’s thoughts on the dollar are invaluable to those able to trade the globe, not just the US economy.

- Jobs Loss or Jobs Gain, Either Is Possible Within the Reporting-Confidence Interval Around December Payrolls
- Revisions Show Headline Unemployment Changes Are Meaningless
- December Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 13.1% (U.6), 23.3% (ShadowStats)
- Year-to-Year Growth Slows in December M3

- Plunge in Oil Imports Narrowed the Trade Deficit; Data Were Positive for Fourth-Quarter GDP
- November Construction Gain Was Statistically Insignificant, Yet, Earlier Numbers Were Revised Higher
- Revised Headline Unemployment Due on January 10th

December 23, 2013

John Williams from shadowstats.com

Filed under: Housing Market, John Williams shadowstats, Precious metals, The Financial Crisis — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:24 am

Free summary from John Williams with shadowstats.com. They are playing with the formulas again:

- Fantasy Third-Quarter GDP Boom – Likely a Function of Impaired Data Gathering and Compilation
- Aberrant Spate of “Strong” Government Numbers in November – Similarly Impacted by the Government Shutdown
- November Existing Home Sales Fell Below Year-Ago Level
- Minimal “Tapering”� Sets Stage for New Fed Chairman, Does Not Alter General Outlook
- Gold Remains Primary Hedge in the Year Ahead

December 18, 2013

John Williams from shadowstats.com

Filed under: Inflation, John Williams shadowstats — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 9:54 am

John Williams from shadowstats.com has the real stats.

Here is a free summary:

- Year-to-Year Inflation Rose in November, Despite Weak Monthly Numbers
- November Annual Inflation: 1.2% (CPI-U), 1.1% (CPI-W), 8.8% (ShadowStats)
- Real Retail Sales Gained 0.6% in November; Recession Signal Remained Intact
- Consumers Constrained by Real-Earnings Issues

December 9, 2013

John Williams from shadowstats.com

Filed under: Economic Crisis, John Williams shadowstats, The Financial Crisis, Unemployment — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:11 am

Free summary from John. Here are the real stats. The government doesn’t count those out of work for more than 6 months. The current average unemployment time for a professional position in the same location (you don’t move to another city/region) is 12 months.

- Real Household Income Falls Slightly in October, Remaining Near Cycle-Low
- Shutdown Effects on October Labor Data, and Misreporting of Same, Are More than Reversed in Headline November Numbers
- Resulting Seasonal-Factor Distortions Weigh Heavily on Data Significance; Current Headline Labor Numbers Have Little Meaning
- November Unemployment: 7.0% (U.3), 13.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)

Unemployed people don’t pay taxes, they don’t buy things, and they don’t save or invest for retirement.

This upcoming vote on unemployment extended benefits may be another reason for the official 7%. I have a feeling that the data guys send the stats to the White House and get a note back with a number that the White House wants. Actually, to avoid time and energy, the data guys probably just ask what number the WH (or whoever) want before they do all the detail. That has been going on since Nixon, probably well before.

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