Here is the free summary from John Williams with shadowstats.com:
- Payroll Jobs Increased by 175,000, but the Number Employed Rose by 42,000; Neither February 2014 Statistic Was Meaningful
- Deliberate Misreporting Showed December Payrolls up by 84,000, Where 67,000 Was the Consistent Number
- February Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 12.6% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
- January Trade Data Hint at Troubled First-Quarter GDP
Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 3.5% in February
John Williams has his latest real stats out. You pay for the detail, well worth the money, but here is the punch line:
- Strongest Signal for a Recession Since September 2007
- January Real Retail Sales Activity Plunged by 0.6% for the Month
- Unadjusted Monthly January 0.4% CPI Inflation Squashed to 0.1% by Seasonal Adjustments
- January Annual Inflation: 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)
John uses the original inflation index formula, before gov started jacking with it. Did your wages/income go up by 9% to meet the real inflation index? groovygirl’s didn’t. Who needs hyperinflation when wages are down or flat or zero because you are unemployed coupled with a 9% real inflation rate and climbing? In the main street household, that can feel like hyperinflation pretty quick. At the very least, it means less consumer spending, saving, and debt for big purchases like houses, cars, and student loans.
John Williams has released a few new updates. Here are the free summaries.
- As With December, January’s Small Headline Jobs Gain Was Statistically Insignificant
- Annual Upside Bias in the Birth-Death Model Increased by 140,000, Despite Last Year’s 119,000 Overstatement of Jobs Growth
-Spurious Revisions Used to Spike Payroll Employment Levels Renewed
Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments and New Population Controls Make
Comparisons of Monthly Unemployment Detail Meaningless
- January Unemployment: 6.6% (U.3), 12.7% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
- Retail Sales Plunge Reflected Consumer Liquidity Issues More than Bad Weather
- Pattern of Collapsing Economic Activity Seen in Revisions
- Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments Already Skewing Jobs Revisions
- Downside Restatement of Recent Economic Activity Continues
- January Production Drop Was More than Bad-Weather Effects
- First-Quarter 2014 GDP Contraction and Downside Revision to Third-Quarter GDP Growth Increasingly Are Likely
Latest free summary from John Williams with the real stats.
- Particularly Unreliable Economic Data
- 2013 Annual GDP Growth Slowed to 1.9% from 2.8% in 2012
- Growth Bloated by Continuing Excess-Inventory Build-Up
gg says: it’s that annual growth number, 1.9%, that is the reason all the talking heads are promoting the 4th quarter numbers. And speaking of those fourth quarter numbers, 3.2% GDP. That’s the official number, not John’s. But if you just look at the components of that number, energy exports, and exports in general, had a huge impact. The components of the US growth are slowly changing. Consumption, the main driver of our GDP for the last 20 years is changing to exports. That is why China’s GDP is down. Their main driver was exports, which has dropped. It is important to look at the components. Because an economy with a GDP that is driven by exports (especially one heavy in energy) is very different from one driven by consumption. It affects everything from wages to prices to investment to business.
John Williams from shadowstats.com has the real stats.
Here is a free summary:
- Year-to-Year Inflation Rose in November, Despite Weak Monthly Numbers
- November Annual Inflation: 1.2% (CPI-U), 1.1% (CPI-W), 8.8% (ShadowStats)
- Real Retail Sales Gained 0.6% in November; Recession Signal Remained Intact
- Consumers Constrained by Real-Earnings Issues
Free summary from John. Here are the real stats. The government doesn’t count those out of work for more than 6 months. The current average unemployment time for a professional position in the same location (you don’t move to another city/region) is 12 months.
- Real Household Income Falls Slightly in October, Remaining Near Cycle-Low
- Shutdown Effects on October Labor Data, and Misreporting of Same, Are More than Reversed in Headline November Numbers
- Resulting Seasonal-Factor Distortions Weigh Heavily on Data Significance; Current Headline Labor Numbers Have Little Meaning
- November Unemployment: 7.0% (U.3), 13.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
Unemployed people don’t pay taxes, they don’t buy things, and they don’t save or invest for retirement.
This upcoming vote on unemployment extended benefits may be another reason for the official 7%. I have a feeling that the data guys send the stats to the White House and get a note back with a number that the White House wants. Actually, to avoid time and energy, the data guys probably just ask what number the WH (or whoever) want before they do all the detail. That has been going on since Nixon, probably well before.
Real data shows 1.4% GDP in 3rd quarter. That sounds more like what we are experiencing in reality. A reminder that bank stress tests demand at least an annual 2% GDP.
Whenever you don’t like the data, change the formula. gg wonders which “GDP” formula the banks’ stress test is using?
Here is a free summary of John’s latest real stats:
- “Booming”� GDP Growth Not Reflected in Any Other Major Economic Indicator
- Involuntary Inventory Build-Up Spiked GDP Revision; Final Sales (GDP Less Inventory Change) Growth Revised to 1.9% from 2.0%
-Revised Headline Growth in Third-Quarter GDP Was Reported at 3.6%; GNP
Was 3.9%; But GDI (the Theoretical GDP Equivalent) Was 1.4%
- Another Set of GDP Revisions in Two Weeks