muses of the moment

December 12, 2014

Let the games begin

The stars are aligning for another bank crisis and/or credit freeze and/or global debt collapse. Banks don’t want large cash deposits. Click here.

Banks are claiming that it is because of the Frank-Dodd rules, which really are so thin now, that this argument just doesn’t hold water. In addition, what little worry banks had about actually being responsible for their depositors money just got voted out by the new spending bill tonight (December 11, 2014). So, gg thinks that the big banks are getting prepared. They are lowering the cash they may need to return to customers during a crisis and anything beyond their capacity to produce, they are putting on the government’s shoulders. Or someone to blame for lack of cash for depositors.

Here is a good interview over at usawatchdog.com. Click here.

Although the stock market is going well. That’s about it. Oil is down putting major pressure on the US oil industry which is the only thing going well in the last 4 years. gg sees a major debt squeeze here if oil stays under $70 for the next 12 months. Debt has to be paid whether the oil well is running or not. Shutting down wells doesn’t pay off the bank, it just cuts payroll and hurts local economies.

Derivatives….the thing the big banks want the government to cover if (when) they blow up.

Derivatives, take your pick. Auto loans (maxed out), commodities (oil), stocks, government debt, Europe (still not fixed), China (slowing), emerging markets, and of course, currencies (very out of balance the last 8 months). Currencies are the largest derivative market. One or more can blow up at anytime and trigger a chain event. (Could be blowing up as we speak, but the chain reaction to multiple markets causes the crisis.) And the banks know that.

The good news is that since the government will cover any derivative losses for the banks, you will not lose money on deposit. May have to wait to withdraw it. (Money you can on get to, is not your money). Probably lose broker/invested money, it’s not covered. Groovygirl has suggested from the beginning to have investment funds with 2-3 different brokerage houses and then cash with 2-3 banks. That’s personal and business accounts. It’s extra accounting, but may reduce risk and at least have one account you can access immediately to keep things going in a crisis event.

Bad news is that the government will “print” to cover and you will be ultimately responsible for it through taxes, currency value, or perhaps even a brand new currency to restructure all the US debt.

This will not end well.

Make sure you are as protected as much as you can be. You can not control derivatives or government votes or market crisis, but you can control your money and finances.

I suggest to you that the next crisis will not be called a financial crisis. It will initially be labeled something else to keep people from assuming it is an event like 2007-2009 as long as possible. As this will cause everyone and anyone to “panic”. The time to prepare is yesterday, not tomorrow.

November 4, 2014

Latest blog posts from Martin Armstrong dated November 3-4, 2014

Filed under: DOW and S&P500, Gold and Silver Investing, Long term investing — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:33 am

Click here for Martin’s blog post on oil.

Click here for Martin’s blog post on gold.

Click here for Martin’s blog post on the DOW.

Groovygirl has been busy working her long-term investment plan. She hopes you are doing the same. The big wave seems to be a little slower to form. Martin says after 2015 (2016-2018). Goods news is you have more time to prepare. Bad news is it seems it will be an even bigger, more volatile wave.

groovygirl is voting today.

Warren Pollock on usawatchdog.com

Warren Pollock has a new interview out!! Great info. Click here for Warren Pollock’s video interview on usawatchdog.com.

gg favorite’s line: the less flexible you are, the more reliant you are on government, the harder it will be. No matter what level of crisis you are preparing for, that truth remains…truth.

September 30, 2014

Pimco

Filed under: Bailout Nation, Global Debt, Odds 'n ends, The Federal Reserve — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:48 pm

groovygirl is keeping an eye on the outflow of funds from PIMCO. 12% now? Click here.

The number is not necessarily the issue. The issue is why pull money just because Gross left? Doesn’t sound right. Something else happening. And if it’s happening at PIMCO, is it a bond market problem. The government can solve a PIMCO problem. The government can not solve a systemic bond market problem. What is it? Don’t know. Have to wait and see. Is this a global issue? And where are the funds going? Stocks? Cash? Overseas?

 

September 21, 2014

Yes, gold is getting hammered.

Filed under: Long term investing — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 7:39 am

Yep, gold is getting hammered, but we are still in the long term trend channel upward.

The more interesting thing is the continued denial by the powers-that-be that we “out of a recession”. Click here. This chart tells a different story. This chart says someone moved the Middle Class’s cheese and didn’t tell them about it. Another problem: that chart is the norm for first world countries, not just the US. And here is a short list of reasons.

Side note: groovygirl doesn’t trade gold anymore. She buys at the lows and holds long-term. The other investment class she is exploring is real estate. Interesting stuff. Looks like interest rates will start to go up in about 12 months or so. Not sure if they will do that before the election or not.  They may “test the waters” before the election to see the impact on the market.

Higher interest rates have an impact on new buys, of course, but the real killer is refinances in commercial real estate. That’s when rates go up, but we may not see the true consequences for a few years in commercial and real estate investing (which is where the real money is in real estate).

If they don’t move rates higher, we still have this same problem from the last turn down:

And as gg said before, it doesn’t matter how low interest rates are, if you have no job or only part-time work, or in commercial real estate, low revenue; you can’t afford any monthly payment or save for a future down payment. Period.

It’s all a very interesting show to watch if nothing else.

August 29, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated August 28, 2014

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Martin Armstrong — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:14 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Cycle Inversion and Staging Ground for 2032 dated August 28, 2014.

Continuing gg’s post from earlier today, Martin talks about the 2032 peak.

In gg’s opinion, as an investor, you must take into consideration when you will need money and when taxes will be the lowest for your investment. Sometimes hard to predict. If you are 70, waiting to exit a market until 2032, may not be practical for you. You may need cash well before then. Always understand when you want to ideally exit an investment. That will help determine what investment to buy and when you should get in. Even in a down global economy, there are markets that are going up. GG is using Martin’s cycle as a guide to what might happen in the global economy at a certain time. This helps time markets and when to exit based on her personal capital needs. Helps her know when to look closely at the market.

Short-term gold bottom?

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals, Real Estate Investments — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:59 am

Jesse over at Cafe Americain suggests that the short-term gold bottom is in. gg agrees. Click here. Please read the explanation of the chart in the link to understand what it is saying.

Just to review where gg is coming from: after Martin Armstrong’s October 2015 turning point, long-term high for gold is 2017-2018. However, Martin is reserving a possible high well into 2023. gg is not disagreeing with Martin, but gold tends to run in 15-20 year cycles (those are complete cycles from low to high to return to “normal” pricing). Our current cycle began in 2000. It is possible that 2032 is the high of another cycle.

Click here for a normal bubble cycle chart. Bubble charts are for any market, as all markets go thru these cycles. If you look at the long-term chart here from Trader Dan. (It’s not up-t0-date, but you all know the price trend the last 18 months.) Notice that we are still holding to the 50% retracement (around $1300) of the new $1900 high. This is absolutely normal in the long-term cycle.

Side musing: Stocks tend to move opposite of gold in an inflation-adjusted chart of each market. That is happening right now. DOW in inflation-adjusted numbers is up and gold in inflation-adjusted number is down. That short-term trend started in 2012 (not 2009 as the stock market talking heads would have you believe). Up until that point, gold was still the better buy accounting for inflation. groovygirl always runs the calculations for inflation and taxes in any investment. If you don’t, you will not know if you are making a profit or not. But even in light of this short-term dip, gg bought more gold, she did not sell. She is in this for the long-term.

In this make-fast-money now, especially for our seniors on fixed incomes, long-term cycles can be frustrating. If you want fast money, do not buy gold. If you want to hold your purchasing power and protect a portion of your capital or estate against a complete breakdown in the global economy, buy some physical gold and hold long-term.

groovygirl’s only question is when will the high come and should she sell in 2015, 2017, 2018, or 2032. gg is looking very closely at the change in the USdollar that is surely coming. That will impact investment trends and profits. It is very possible that a change in the USdollar will happen in the 2017-2018 time frame requiring a quick fix that doesn’t hold. And another more long-term fix will be required 2032, effecting gold prices each time.

Side musing: sorry gg has been inconsistent in posting. She is working on another real estate deal. Not much happening in the gold market, just building for that next long-term move to the high in the midst of the chaos of the collapsing world economy and all the reactions to it. Heaven forbid someone should be proactive :)

August 9, 2014

Immigration

Filed under: Odds 'n ends — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 2:44 am

groovygirl has been keeping a close eye on the immigration debate. She is convinced that this will be a factor in moving a major shift on all levels in the US, REGARDLESS of what is done. This issue, since it has not been addressed, has huge economic, cultural, and political impacts. gg also sees potential states rights confrontations and a thousand possible unintended consequences whatever the policy(s) moving forward.

gg also thinks this issue has the potential to split political parties as Martin Armstrong has warned will happen in the next few elections.

Click here for a post from zerohedge on the issue.

August 7, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated August 5, 2014

Filed under: Martin Armstrong, Odds 'n ends — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:05 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled The Shift from West to East dated August 5, 2014. This is a good one.

Longwave Group

Filed under: DOW and S&P500, Stock Market — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:39 pm

groovygirl gets these periodic free letters from the Longwave Group (Ian Gordon). This latest one was kind of interesting. He talks about a recent key point reversal in the US stock markets.

Click here.

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