Click here for the latest blog post entitled Greece to Default in 2014-Cycles of War-Presidential Elections in 2016 dated December 12, 2013.
December 13, 2013
December 12, 2013
Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Anonymous Reporting From Ukraine dated December 11, 2013. Good post with an inside look at the situation.
Groovygirl says: outside the nation, Russia wants to keep their access to the sea/pipelines, that requires control of the government. EU and US wants to limit that access away. It is the same story since the beginning of time. Like Syria (and others) this has the potential to spill over to a global affair very quickly.
Side musing: did you read about Saudi Arabia and their neighbors building a private “security” force? This force is a back up to keep the people in control. They do not want an Egyptian-style situation on their hands. And they clearly are not counting on the US protection for ever. Which was the deal set up 50 years ago. Cheap oil dominated in US dollars in exchange for military protection and power.
As the US loses the money and “priority” (oil in dollars) to protect the world, Blackwater will never be out of clients….
December 9, 2013
Free summary from John. Here are the real stats. The government doesn’t count those out of work for more than 6 months. The current average unemployment time for a professional position in the same location (you don’t move to another city/region) is 12 months.
- Real Household Income Falls Slightly in October, Remaining Near Cycle-Low
- Shutdown Effects on October Labor Data, and Misreporting of Same, Are More than Reversed in Headline November Numbers
- Resulting Seasonal-Factor Distortions Weigh Heavily on Data Significance; Current Headline Labor Numbers Have Little Meaning
- November Unemployment: 7.0% (U.3), 13.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
Unemployed people don’t pay taxes, they don’t buy things, and they don’t save or invest for retirement.
This upcoming vote on unemployment extended benefits may be another reason for the official 7%. I have a feeling that the data guys send the stats to the White House and get a note back with a number that the White House wants. Actually, to avoid time and energy, the data guys probably just ask what number the WH (or whoever) want before they do all the detail. That has been going on since Nixon, probably well before.
December 8, 2013
Remember to check out the poster in the background. How many global disasters were not diverted because of no loose change in combat? Or no cell signal? Also, quick education in how hard-wire phone systems were set up in the “olden days”.
His new book looks kind of interesting. Click here. May not always agree with him, but always like him because he says what he means. And he provides an intelligent argument/evidence for his point of view. So you can decide to agree or disagree.
From the link to the book’s review above:
In his most recent book, Antifragile, Taleb offers some simple
heuristics to help businesses and individuals thrive in a life swirling
with volatility. Before he does that, though, Taleb makes the case that
people/systems/organizations/things/ideas can be described in one of
three ways: fragile, resilient, or antifragile.
A short post from Mark Liebovich via Bill Moyers’ website. This Town. Click here.
December 6, 2013
Everyone is very happy about the unemployment data. Groovygirl awaits the revision next year
The financial talking head today said that the “real stat” could be lower (at least he said it), but it doesn’t matter. Buy stocks and sell gold……is the mantra of the day. This could go on for a while.
Groovygirl is keeping an eye on that 30 year bond. It’s been flirting relentlessly with 4%. Many, many private and public loans (including commercial real estate) that need to be rolled over in the next 3 years are based on that number. Higher rates could turn a profitable investment into a bankrupt investment in one day. The Fed has spent the last 5 years and many billions keeping that rate down for the last roll-over from 2009-2012. That was only buying time, nothing else.
This rate moving higher will also effect the residential housing market.
If you are looking at a 10-year plan for an investment, real estate investment, or company assume this rate goes up. Make sure the forecasted profit will work (or not go negative) in an environment with an interest rate of 6, 8, or even 10%.
Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Chinese Yuan Surpasses Euro as Number 2 Currency for Trade dated December 4, 2013.
Real data shows 1.4% GDP in 3rd quarter. That sounds more like what we are experiencing in reality. A reminder that bank stress tests demand at least an annual 2% GDP.
Whenever you don’t like the data, change the formula. gg wonders which “GDP” formula the banks’ stress test is using?
Here is a free summary of John’s latest real stats:
- “Booming”� GDP Growth Not Reflected in Any Other Major Economic Indicator
- Involuntary Inventory Build-Up Spiked GDP Revision; Final Sales (GDP Less Inventory Change) Growth Revised to 1.9% from 2.0%
-Revised Headline Growth in Third-Quarter GDP Was Reported at 3.6%; GNP
Was 3.9%; But GDI (the Theoretical GDP Equivalent) Was 1.4%
- Another Set of GDP Revisions in Two Weeks