March 9, 2014
March 8, 2014
Here is the free summary from John Williams with shadowstats.com:
- Payroll Jobs Increased by 175,000, but the Number Employed Rose by 42,000; Neither February 2014 Statistic Was Meaningful
- Deliberate Misreporting Showed December Payrolls up by 84,000, Where 67,000 Was the Consistent Number
- February Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 12.6% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
- January Trade Data Hint at Troubled First-Quarter GDP
Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 3.5% in February
Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Is Obama Just Insane? dated March 8, 2014.
gg says: Obama’s strong suit has never been international relations. Putin’s strong point has always been international relations. Perhaps, Obama wants a distraction? Doesn’t matter, as Martin states, this situation has the potential to escalate very rapidly.
groovygirl had been very interested in these new reserve mortgages. Here is an excellent article that explains exactly what they are and how they work.
groovygirl is especially leery of the securities that these mortgages are wrapped in and sold to investors. Do not invest in those types of securities. Groovygirl believes the reverse mortgage industry will implode as soon as the first mortgages can’t pay their property taxes and insurance.
groovygirl also believes that although these types of mortgages will be a small percentage of over-all mortgages that they will help to intensify the decline in real estate in the US. Remember that Martin Armstrong has a long-term, 72 year cycle in US real estate that began its decline in 2007, with a slight uptick from 2012-2015, and will continue to decline into 2032. This is good news for anyone with cash wanting to buy houses at fire sale prices in the next 15 years or so.
March 7, 2014
Excellent interview from kingworldnews with Paul Craig Roberts. He explains the situation in Ukraine and why it is so dangerous.
Click here. Worth the 25 minutes of your time. He explains what happened, why it didn’t go well, and what to look for as a good outcome (good meaning, not world war three).
Although Mr. Roberts doesn’t say this at all, it seems to gg that the billions of dollars for Ukraine’s new government from the US is to “buy off” the Russian government to stand down (in gg’s humble opinion).
March 5, 2014
In case you missed it with global events, snow storms, and your own life, the GDP has been revised…down. Surprise!
Final quarter growth estimated at 2.4%, down from 3.2%. Fed blames the weather, again. Weather blames Fed.
March 4, 2014
Click here for a very good article describing why city, county, and state pensions could be in trouble. derivative bets. Although this article about PIMCO and the recent departure of Mohamed El-Erianas, this article goes into detail about how derivative bets are putting pressure local and state balance sheets. The first thing to be ”restructured” is pensions. When cities, counties, and states are in trouble, taxes go up and services go down, and maintenance items are put on the back burner.
This paragraph from the article was very interesting. Clearly shows what will implode PIMCO:
According to the publication of Morningstar Top Holdings snapshot, about three quarters of PIMCO derivatives were
bets on European currency financial futures and the balance was on U.S.
dollar futures. Some of PIMCO holdings have a “negative cash position”
that usually represents short selling – short sale being a speculative investment that profits when prices fall. The Total Fund portfolio looks similar to leveraged hedge fund portfolio. PIMCO
derivatives seem all about “maximum return” and not very much about
“preservation of capital and prudent investment management.”
Groovygirl believes that the combination of derivative bets (balance sheet problem now coming due) and lower tax revenue from falling property values (the housing market decline) and falling sales taxes from lower economic activity coupled with long-term maintenance aged-related expenses (income sheet problem) has brought these issues to the fore-front. Every city is in involved derivatives, it is how cities kept pension funds in the black at least on paper that they raided long ago. Cities can’t print money.
You can hide a balance sheet problem with more revenue. But when revenue falls or expenses increase your balance sheet problem becomes unavoidable. This is accounting 101, but no one in government seems care. Juggling accounting, not prudent governing, seems to be just doing business. “Hiding a poor balance sheet” is not a long term business plan.
March 1, 2014
This is what fiat currency, taxes, and muni bankruptcies do to your social security, pension fund, really any long-term savings plan. Cash flow investments are better in a fiat currency system. And that final move by Bud? That’s you buying those national savings bonds from the President’s recent State of the Union address. Get educated and be aware! Age 65 is not the time to figure out how the system really works.