muses of the moment

September 30, 2014

Pimco

Filed under: Bailout Nation, Global Debt, Odds 'n ends, The Federal Reserve — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:48 pm

groovygirl is keeping an eye on the outflow of funds from PIMCO. 12% now? Click here.

The number is not necessarily the issue. The issue is why pull money just because Gross left? Doesn’t sound right. Something else happening. And if it’s happening at PIMCO, is it a bond market problem. The government can solve a PIMCO problem. The government can not solve a systemic bond market problem. What is it? Don’t know. Have to wait and see. Is this a global issue? And where are the funds going? Stocks? Cash? Overseas?

 

September 21, 2014

Yes, gold is getting hammered.

Filed under: Long term investing — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 7:39 am

Yep, gold is getting hammered, but we are still in the long term trend channel upward.

The more interesting thing is the continued denial by the powers-that-be that we “out of a recession”. Click here. This chart tells a different story. This chart says someone moved the Middle Class’s cheese and didn’t tell them about it. Another problem: that chart is the norm for first world countries, not just the US. And here is a short list of reasons.

Side note: groovygirl doesn’t trade gold anymore. She buys at the lows and holds long-term. The other investment class she is exploring is real estate. Interesting stuff. Looks like interest rates will start to go up in about 12 months or so. Not sure if they will do that before the election or not.  They may “test the waters” before the election to see the impact on the market.

Higher interest rates have an impact on new buys, of course, but the real killer is refinances in commercial real estate. That’s when rates go up, but we may not see the true consequences for a few years in commercial and real estate investing (which is where the real money is in real estate).

If they don’t move rates higher, we still have this same problem from the last turn down:

And as gg said before, it doesn’t matter how low interest rates are, if you have no job or only part-time work, or in commercial real estate, low revenue; you can’t afford any monthly payment or save for a future down payment. Period.

It’s all a very interesting show to watch if nothing else.

August 29, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated August 28, 2014

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Martin Armstrong — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:14 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Cycle Inversion and Staging Ground for 2032 dated August 28, 2014.

Continuing gg’s post from earlier today, Martin talks about the 2032 peak.

In gg’s opinion, as an investor, you must take into consideration when you will need money and when taxes will be the lowest for your investment. Sometimes hard to predict. If you are 70, waiting to exit a market until 2032, may not be practical for you. You may need cash well before then. Always understand when you want to ideally exit an investment. That will help determine what investment to buy and when you should get in. Even in a down global economy, there are markets that are going up. GG is using Martin’s cycle as a guide to what might happen in the global economy at a certain time. This helps time markets and when to exit based on her personal capital needs. Helps her know when to look closely at the market.

Short-term gold bottom?

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals, Real Estate Investments — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:59 am

Jesse over at Cafe Americain suggests that the short-term gold bottom is in. gg agrees. Click here. Please read the explanation of the chart in the link to understand what it is saying.

Just to review where gg is coming from: after Martin Armstrong’s October 2015 turning point, long-term high for gold is 2017-2018. However, Martin is reserving a possible high well into 2023. gg is not disagreeing with Martin, but gold tends to run in 15-20 year cycles (those are complete cycles from low to high to return to “normal” pricing). Our current cycle began in 2000. It is possible that 2032 is the high of another cycle.

Click here for a normal bubble cycle chart. Bubble charts are for any market, as all markets go thru these cycles. If you look at the long-term chart here from Trader Dan. (It’s not up-t0-date, but you all know the price trend the last 18 months.) Notice that we are still holding to the 50% retracement (around $1300) of the new $1900 high. This is absolutely normal in the long-term cycle.

Side musing: Stocks tend to move opposite of gold in an inflation-adjusted chart of each market. That is happening right now. DOW in inflation-adjusted numbers is up and gold in inflation-adjusted number is down. That short-term trend started in 2012 (not 2009 as the stock market talking heads would have you believe). Up until that point, gold was still the better buy accounting for inflation. groovygirl always runs the calculations for inflation and taxes in any investment. If you don’t, you will not know if you are making a profit or not. But even in light of this short-term dip, gg bought more gold, she did not sell. She is in this for the long-term.

In this make-fast-money now, especially for our seniors on fixed incomes, long-term cycles can be frustrating. If you want fast money, do not buy gold. If you want to hold your purchasing power and protect a portion of your capital or estate against a complete breakdown in the global economy, buy some physical gold and hold long-term.

groovygirl’s only question is when will the high come and should she sell in 2015, 2017, 2018, or 2032. gg is looking very closely at the change in the USdollar that is surely coming. That will impact investment trends and profits. It is very possible that a change in the USdollar will happen in the 2017-2018 time frame requiring a quick fix that doesn’t hold. And another more long-term fix will be required 2032, effecting gold prices each time.

Side musing: sorry gg has been inconsistent in posting. She is working on another real estate deal. Not much happening in the gold market, just building for that next long-term move to the high in the midst of the chaos of the collapsing world economy and all the reactions to it. Heaven forbid someone should be proactive :)

August 9, 2014

Immigration

Filed under: Odds 'n ends — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 2:44 am

groovygirl has been keeping a close eye on the immigration debate. She is convinced that this will be a factor in moving a major shift on all levels in the US, REGARDLESS of what is done. This issue, since it has not been addressed, has huge economic, cultural, and political impacts. gg also sees potential states rights confrontations and a thousand possible unintended consequences whatever the policy(s) moving forward.

gg also thinks this issue has the potential to split political parties as Martin Armstrong has warned will happen in the next few elections.

Click here for a post from zerohedge on the issue.

August 7, 2014

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated August 5, 2014

Filed under: Martin Armstrong, Odds 'n ends — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:05 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled The Shift from West to East dated August 5, 2014. This is a good one.

Longwave Group

Filed under: DOW and S&P500, Stock Market — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:39 pm

groovygirl gets these periodic free letters from the Longwave Group (Ian Gordon). This latest one was kind of interesting. He talks about a recent key point reversal in the US stock markets.

Click here.

August 1, 2014

John Williams with shadowstats.com

Filed under: Inflation, John Williams shadowstats — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 7:45 am

Once again, John Williams with shadowstats.com gives us the real stats. Here is his free summary:

No. 646: Second-Quarter 2014 GDP, GDP Benchmark Revisions, Household Income

• Second-Quarter GDP Surge Not Credible, Significant Downside Revisions Remain in Offing
• Actual Economic Activity Remains in Serious Trouble
• Historical GDP Revised Lower Where Better Data Were Available and Revised Higher Where Better Numbers Were Not

I am sure we will have a “revision” after the November elections for 2nd and 3rd quarter GDP.

July 30, 2014

Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated July 24, 2014

Click here for a post from Martin Armstrong dated July 24, 2014 entitled World Central Bank Secret Agreements.

From the link above:

That strategy depends on the rest of the world remaining strong. But if we see a turn down 2016-2020, it is hard to imagine Europe surviving the coming political storm.

groovygirl thought this was very important. This seems the only option to “control” the European debt implosion as everyone else is in a debt collapse, too. It’ s hard for a group of drowning men to save each other. May be impossible, but it gives us an idea of what the “first world”, US allies will try to do. Of course, there is that nasty unknown of shadow dark pool trading…..

July 29, 2014

Latest Interview with Martin Armstrong dated July 28, 2014

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Martin Armstrong — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 2:34 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest interview with Financial News Network.

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