muses of the moment

July 22, 2014

Inside Job

Filed under: 401K and IRAs, DOW and S&P500, Stock Market, The Banking Crisis — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 11:33 am

groovygirl thought this article from Pam Martens was very interesting.

Click here.

From the link above:

Starting with the week of May 26, 2014, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) began releasing weekly dark pool trading data to the public. That sliver of sunlight shows that some of the corporations with the largest share buyback programs are also among the heaviest traded stocks within the dark pools.

With banking declining, banks must make money anyway that can. This “recession” is hard on everyone, only bankers don’t go to jail for illegal activity to support their families, in gg’s humble and completely uneducated opinion :)

Take the case of Apple Computer. According to FINRA data, in the five weekly periods of May 26 through June 23, dark pools traded over 103.6 million shares of Apple stock. The heaviest week was the week of June 9, 2014 when 39.9 million shares traded in dark pools. Goldman Sachs was responsible for trading 2,444,350 shares of Apple that week in its dark pool, Sigma-X, and has been in the top tier of dark pools trading Apple stock in all subsequent weeks reported by FINRA.

So what happens when corporations need cash to meet operation costs? Will they all put their stock up for sale at the same time? And who is going to buy that stock? Goldman and sell to muppets? I think the muppets are either out of cash or pissed off or both.

This can not end well.

 

July 20, 2014

Weekend reading

Filed under: Odds 'n ends — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:24 am

You may not have seen this. Kind of interesting…click here.

July 19, 2014

Double-standard

Filed under: Economic Crisis, MF Global bankruptcy, Odds 'n ends — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:11 am

The leaked international trade agreement or TISA from June 2014, click here, seems to be a double standard. Individuals can not move money internationally, avoid taxes, heavy fees or trust their info is private, but too big to fail can.

I think international “sanctions” will be a guise for controlling individual money, but the too big to fail will continue to move money, launder money, and collect data. Brilliant.

On a positive note, more individuals will be forced to invest money locally. It is estimated that 50-90% of invested money is lost when it has to “go through” a third party’s hands, such as bank, broker, government, mutual fund, hedge fund, etc. Direct money from you to your local store, tradesman or business ends up creating more capital in the big picture. One reason why groovygirl likes this direct internet fund/business investing trend. But you still have to do your due diligence.

July 18, 2014

Rereading Martin

Filed under: European Debt Implosion, Martin Armstrong, Odds 'n ends, The Financial Crisis — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:06 am

Groovygirl was rereading some old articles from Martin Armstrong. The ones on the typewriter. Of course, gg often reviews the Real Estate Cycle one. Seems we are still right on schedule for the long decline in US real estate into 2033 after 2015.

gg was also reading March 21, 2013′s post entitled March 22nd-Just Amazing. I think you can find it on his site.

Martin refers to August 3, 2014 as a turning point for the Sovereign Debt Crisis Wave Formation. She is keeping an eye on that date.

And, of course, with today’s international events, it seems we are on track for a rise in the war cycle going 2014-2016. Maybe impact the global debt issue as well. The more global economic sanctions, the less global capital moves, the less global debt/credit available.

Hope everyone is well.

June 23, 2014

Interesting question

Filed under: Dollar Crisis, DOW and S&P500, Stock Market — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 12:50 pm

Charles Hugh Smith brings up an interesting question.  Who will boomers and their pension/401k plans sell their stocks to?

Click here.

It is possible that other countries and emerging markets might or maybe too big to fail banks with free Fed money, but this scenario suggests some sort of long-term decline at some point under even the best of circumstances.

gg is hoping that emerging markets will be over their contraction in 5-7 years and be able to pick up the selling slack when a large population of aging Americans are selling for cash. Otherwise it could get ugly.

Same thing is/will happen in housing. Seniors need the cash equity out of their home and there are limited buyers. gg has thought for a long time that this pressure, with the increased debt burden/low-income on young people will contribute to the long-term decline in real estate in the US and other first world economies.

This is a long-term pressure on a long term cycle tied to generational demographics.

June 14, 2014

Conversation between Glen Downs and Martin Armstrong

Filed under: Martin Armstrong, Odds 'n ends — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 7:49 pm

Click here for a conversation between Glen Downs and Martin Armstrong dated June 11, 2014.

Latest Blog Post from Martin Armstrong dated June 14, 2014

Filed under: Economic Confidence Model Cycle, Gold and Silver Investing, Martin Armstrong, Precious metals — Tags: — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 7:47 pm

Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Gold dated June 14, 2014.

June 10, 2014

That China Issue…

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 10:40 am

Groovygirl is getting more and more concerned with the “disappearing” metals in China’s commodity warehouses. This will, of course, effect China and the national links of collateral, first. But, this is a global market. It is all connected.

The dark pools, unregulated trading, and questionable legal accounting practices, globally, make the end result unpredictable. gg can make one prediction: the Big Banks will get their money first….

gg remembers that it took about 12-18 months from the first rumors of trouble to the full blow up of MF Global. Looking back you could see the signs of MF Global well before JP Morgan called its loan. Twelve to eighteen months is usually how long it takes for these things to trigger and then impact other markets. But since investors are now aware of the MF Global-like possibilities, a race to the exits could occur at any time.

This story is not about fake gold, missing gold/copper, or really commodities at all. It is about the loans, debt, and credit that have been created and now are backed by nothing that is about to collapse and move into other markets/countries.

Click here. And here.

Jesse shares gg and others’ concerns. Click here.

groovygirl is watching this story closely. Have you personally visited your physical gold and silver lately? By the time this goes down, it will be too late to get your money out or get physical delivery, just like MF Global. Prepare, if you have not already.

Daily Gold

Filed under: Gold and Silver Investing, Precious metals — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 8:25 am

So far, $1250ish is holding….

June 6, 2014

Housing Update

Filed under: Housing Market — totallygroovygirlfriday @ 1:07 am

Peak Prosperity had a great post this week on the US housing market. Click here.

Groovygirl is posting this link for the same reason that Brian did: housing is in a long term decline. What happened in 2007-2008, will happen again. Do not get caught upside down in your primary residence. Brian from Chris Martenson’s website highlights a few of the reasons and backs them up with charts.

Remember what happened when people were upside down in their house last time? They just walked away or lived there without paying anything. Mortgage Securities had assets on their books, but no interest income. Mortgage Banks had tons of empty houses that were costing them money, not bringing money in. Because of the large amount of foreclosures, banks couldn’t sell all their assets at once, it would have tanked the market (not just caused a decline). So houses stood empty.

We have the certainty of this happening again, but this time hedge funds own a lot more houses than they did in 2007. Whether the government chooses to “bail out” the owner or not, the debt must be taken down. The steepness of the decline will be determined by the government’s policy reaction. The US housing market for the last 60 years has been built and sustained on higher debt, higher prices, and debt availability. Investment in housing is sustained by income exceeding expenses/loan payments and then selling higher for a profit. These are the long time models that are breaking down. 2007 was just the first leg. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t buy. It means the investment plan and exit strategy are different.

The most dangerous words ever spoken are: “This is how it has always been done.” And in this paradigm shift of everything and on a global scale, that mindset is extremely dangerous. Beware of anyone saying that to you, especially someone who is handling your money. They must explain to you why “doing it this way” will work if the economy/trend goes up, down, or sideways for the length of the investment.

But some other reasons not mentioned for the housing decline are:

  • lower income/higher expenses equals less qualified mortgage apps
  • banks demand higher down payments, which require time to save additional money
  • investors, foreign and domestic (i.e hedge funds and REITs), are driving up prices with cash deals. This will not last.

groovygirl says: not all housing markets will drop severely, like Detroit. The national average is just that: a national average. That is why you must know and watch the local real estate market of your residence/investment. How much are houses selling for in your area and to whom? Are they all cash sales? How many are first time buyers? What is the average age? How many rentals are in your area? Is your local school district improving or declining? Are good jobs coming or leaving your area? And do not ask a real estate agent. They are salesmen, not investors.

For instance, in my area(s) in the last six months, real estate agents are listing houses for 15-30% more than what they actually end up being sold for. (List vs. sold price for houses going thru an RE agent.) And this is in a market with low inventory. They are assuming low inventory will drive prices higher. That is not happening. So just looking at list prices on your block may not give you the complete picture. And if you are buying, this is good info, so that you do not overpay for an investment. 

There are more and more for sale by owner, short sales, auctions, and private sales before anything gets to real estate agent systems. Agent data is not necessarily the complete current market. Watch your local trends completely and closely.

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