Click here for Martin’s blog post on oil.
Click here for Martin’s blog post on gold.
Click here for Martin’s blog post on the DOW.
Groovygirl has been busy working her long-term investment plan. She hopes you are doing the same. The big wave seems to be a little slower to form. Martin says after 2015 (2016-2018). Goods news is you have more time to prepare. Bad news is it seems it will be an even bigger, more volatile wave.
groovygirl is voting today.
groovygirl is keeping an eye on the outflow of funds from PIMCO. 12% now? Click here.
The number is not necessarily the issue. The issue is why pull money just because Gross left? Doesn’t sound right. Something else happening. And if it’s happening at PIMCO, is it a bond market problem. The government can solve a PIMCO problem. The government can not solve a systemic bond market problem. What is it? Don’t know. Have to wait and see. Is this a global issue? And where are the funds going? Stocks? Cash? Overseas?
Yep, gold is getting hammered, but we are still in the long term trend channel upward.
The more interesting thing is the continued denial by the powers-that-be that we “out of a recession”. Click here. This chart tells a different story. This chart says someone moved the Middle Class’s cheese and didn’t tell them about it. Another problem: that chart is the norm for first world countries, not just the US. And here is a short list of reasons.
Side note: groovygirl doesn’t trade gold anymore. She buys at the lows and holds long-term. The other investment class she is exploring is real estate. Interesting stuff. Looks like interest rates will start to go up in about 12 months or so. Not sure if they will do that before the election or not. They may “test the waters” before the election to see the impact on the market.
Higher interest rates have an impact on new buys, of course, but the real killer is refinances in commercial real estate. That’s when rates go up, but we may not see the true consequences for a few years in commercial and real estate investing (which is where the real money is in real estate).
If they don’t move rates higher, we still have this same problem from the last turn down:
And as gg said before, it doesn’t matter how low interest rates are, if you have no job or only part-time work, or in commercial real estate, low revenue; you can’t afford any monthly payment or save for a future down payment. Period.
It’s all a very interesting show to watch if nothing else.
Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled Cycle Inversion and Staging Ground for 2032 dated August 28, 2014.
Continuing gg’s post from earlier today, Martin talks about the 2032 peak.
In gg’s opinion, as an investor, you must take into consideration when you will need money and when taxes will be the lowest for your investment. Sometimes hard to predict. If you are 70, waiting to exit a market until 2032, may not be practical for you. You may need cash well before then. Always understand when you want to ideally exit an investment. That will help determine what investment to buy and when you should get in. Even in a down global economy, there are markets that are going up. GG is using Martin’s cycle as a guide to what might happen in the global economy at a certain time. This helps time markets and when to exit based on her personal capital needs. Helps her know when to look closely at the market.
groovygirl has been keeping a close eye on the immigration debate. She is convinced that this will be a factor in moving a major shift on all levels in the US, REGARDLESS of what is done. This issue, since it has not been addressed, has huge economic, cultural, and political impacts. gg also sees potential states rights confrontations and a thousand possible unintended consequences whatever the policy(s) moving forward.
gg also thinks this issue has the potential to split political parties as Martin Armstrong has warned will happen in the next few elections.
Click here for a post from zerohedge on the issue.
Click here for Martin Armstrong’s latest blog post entitled The Shift from West to East dated August 5, 2014. This is a good one.
groovygirl gets these periodic free letters from the Longwave Group (Ian Gordon). This latest one was kind of interesting. He talks about a recent key point reversal in the US stock markets.
Once again, John Williams with shadowstats.com gives us the real stats. Here is his free summary:
No. 646: Second-Quarter 2014 GDP, GDP Benchmark Revisions, Household Income
• Second-Quarter GDP Surge Not Credible, Significant Downside Revisions Remain in Offing
• Actual Economic Activity Remains in Serious Trouble
• Historical GDP Revised Lower Where Better Data Were Available and Revised Higher Where Better Numbers Were Not
I am sure we will have a “revision” after the November elections for 2nd and 3rd quarter GDP.